11

2 Recall from the Lecture on Epidemics and Substance Abuse The importance of road traffic collisions determining the index of disabilty adjusted life years = years lost of life + years lived with disability

3 Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5): * * * * * * * * * * * Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., 1996

4 Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5): * * * * * *

5 Issues Private optima & social optima Government Regulation Versus Market Solutions Collision Statistics and Risk Local Traffic: Volume, Collisions, and Congestion Control of Driving Under the Influence, DUI 5

6 Part I: Private Optima Vs. Social Optima The Value of Time and Speeding 6

7 Value of Time & Speeding 7

8 Distance = Rate*Time D =100 milesRate (speed)Time to travel mph4 hours mph2.5 hours mph2.0 hours mph1 hour 20 minutes mph1 hour 15 minutes mph1 hour 11 minutes 8

99

10 Time saved Time for travel 10

11

12

13 Vehicle Costs Victoria Transport Policy Institute Fixed costs: $ 2884/360 = $8 per day 13

14 Fixed costs 14

15 Variable costs $0.14mile* 100 = $14, corrected for inefficiency 15

16

17

18 Risk of fatality: 1.27 per 100 million miles traveled, or 1.27*10 -6 *$1.4 Million or about $2, but U-shaped with speed 18

19

20 Part II. Government Regulation Versus the Private Market self – insurance against risk of accidents Civil Law-suit for damages Government Requires Insurance of all Drivers Uninsured driver Moral hazard? 20

21 Part III: Risk of an Accident Collision Statistics Number of collisions involving fatalities Number of Collisions Involving Injuries Number of Collisions Involving Only Property Damage Region US California Santa Barbara County Oxnard-Ventura 21

22

23

24 Why Did the Number of Fatal Crashes Start Declining? Safer cars? Seat belts Air bags Safer Roads? Safer Drivers? 24

25

26 Risk Measures: Per Capita, Per VMT 26

27 Passenger car involvement down, light trucks & motorcycles up 27

28

29 California Trends 29

30

31

32

33 Oxnard-Ventura 2010 Fatalities 33

34 Local Traffic & Traffic Measures Traffic Volume or Counts Traffic Collisions: Fatal, Injury, Property Damage Only Traffic Congestion 34

35 Not Much Change in Traffic Volume 35

36 Traffic Collisions Santa Barbara County, Total 36

37 Traffic Collisions Ventura County, Total 37

38 Traffic Collisions San Luis Obispo County, Total 38

39 What is Going On In Ventura? Traffic Congestion 39

40 Ventura County Vehicle Miles Travelled, VMT 40

41 Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries, Traffic Congestion & Public Transportation 41 Positive?

42 Spurious Correlation? Difference 42

43 Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries, Traffic Congestion & Public Transportation 43 Still +

44 Actual, Fitted & Residual 44

45 Control Of DUI History: Sweden Guiding Force: Temperance Movement in Parliament History: Great Britain Guiding Force: Physicians History: US Guiding Force: MADD, SADD History: CA 45

46 NHTSA 46

47 NHTSA 47

48 Holidays & DUI 48

49 Motor Vehicle Drivers in Fatal Collisions By Age, Under the Influence, 2009 CA 49

50

51

52

53 Intervention Analysis If you know the date a law became effective then you can see if behavior changed after that date Example: per se legislation setting a blood alcohol content, bac, of 0.08 was passed in the United Kingdom in October 1967 Monthly Data on the number of road fatalities and number seriously injured is available from January 1960 to December 1975

54 Road Fatalities and Seriously Injured

55 Regress Road Fatalities On seasonal Dummies and Step Function -46/608 = 7.6%

56 Regress SDKill = -87*sdstep + error -87/608 = -14%

57

58

59

60 Alcohol Involved Crashes with Fatalities VS. Crashes Involving Fatalities

61 The End