1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” New Hampshire in.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
1 11 …to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshires future. Board of Directors.
Advertisements

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” The Changing Demographics.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” New Hampshire Economic.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors.
1 NH’s Economy: Looking to the Future May 10, 2012 Dennis Delay NHCPPS Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis Michael Buckley William.
1 11 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors.
1 11 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors.
Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross,
Where goes New Hampshire? NH Government Finance Officers May 2, 2008 Dennis Delay Deputy Director, NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates.
1 11 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” The Medicaid Enhancement.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Downers.
Chapter 11 Fiscal Policy McGraw-Hill/Irwin
1 New Hampshire Coalition on Aging Annual Meeting October 28, 2009 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis.
1 Education Finance and Adequacy Presentation to the Joint Legislative Oversight Committee on Costing an Adequate Education (RSA 193-E:2-d) Room 100, State.
NH State Revenue Options and Consequences NH Children’s Summit December 8, 2008 Dennis Delay Deputy Director, NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy.
January 2007 Economic Review and Revenue Forecast Update State of Vermont Emergency Board and Legislative Committees January 16, 2007 Montpelier, Vermont.
Enacted Budget and Economic Outlook May 15, 2008 Laura L. Anglin Director of the Budget.
Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook Fall 2003 Craig Infanger Larry Jones.
Social Science. When the American public sees economic instability, they want action in order to feel secure again When the American public sees economic.
The Economy and Marketing
Professor Emeritus of Economics Thomas R. Brown Professor in Economics Education.
1 Economics of healthcare and its impact on health and human services in the Seacoast May 2, 2012 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through.
Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter 11 Fiscal Policy.
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Kicking Into a Higher.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors.
WASHINGTON STATEECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL Economic & Revenue Outlook Presented to Washington State National Institute of Government Procurement.
LAURENCE E. GOSS, PHD INSTITUTE FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE STUDIES PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY JANUARY 10, 2011 TOURISM AND THE ROOMS AND MEALS TAX.
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Measuring NH in 2015.
1 The State Budget Presentation to the NH Senate 1/7/2009 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis.
All of our reports are available on the web: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Board of Directors Donna.
1 An Overview of Healthcare Costs and What Are You Going To Do About Them? Our health system research undertaken with generous support from Doug Hall Executive.
Technology Outlook Does anyone remember 1999?… Morgan Stanley Chuck Phillips Managing Director MRCHUCK
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Kicking into a Higher.
NOTE: To print these slides in black on white, choose grayscale under Options in print preview.
Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Richard Ober James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Presentation to the.
Where Goes New Hampshire? New Hampshire 2018 Steve Norton Executive Director NH Center for Public Policy Studies March 11, 2008 “…to raise new ideas and.
Smart Manufacturing & High Technology NH’s Leading Economic Sector Dennis Delay Economist, NHCPPS December 2011 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy.
Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors.
New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors.
Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross,
1 The State Budget NH Children’s Summit December 8, 2008 Steve Norton Director, NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality.
NH Business Growth Sectors House and Senate Finance and Ways & Means Committees Dennis Delay Deputy Director, New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies.
1 NH’s State Budget Conversation Steve Norton Executive Director, NH Center for Public Policy Studies February 5, 2009.
Economic Outlook When Will It End? 2009 Tri-State ASBO Conference May 14, 2009 Dennis Delay NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through.
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Understanding Community.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” The NH State Budget.
You can do this! Don’t be afraid of Economics… Bruce Damasio Maryland Council for Economic Education.
Board of Directors William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross,
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” New Hampshire Economic.
1 Looking towards the Next Budget Conversation BIA Policy Committee “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information.
Overview and Outlook for Georgia’s Revenue Situation and Economy Fiscal Management Council Office of Planning and Budget Ken Heaghney September 2015.
1 New Hampshire Trends, Higher Education and the State Budget Steve Norton Executive Director NH Center for Public Policy Studies “…to raise new ideas.
The Impacts of Government Borrowing 1. Government Borrowing Affects Investment and the Trade Balance.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors.
William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like.
Fiscal policy topics 1  Sources of Federal revenue and expenditures  Expansionary and contractionary fiscal policy  Spending multiplier  Tax multiplier.
Economic Outlook December 2014 Economic Policy Division.
Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: November 19, 2015 California Association of School Business Officials, CBO Symposium 0.
December 3, The State of The Economy In this presentation National forecasts are produced by Global Insight, Inc. State and Metropolitan forecasts.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Tailwind to Headwind:
1 1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Measuring New Hampshire.
1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Tailwinds to Headwinds.
State of the States Brian Sigritz Director of State Fiscal Studies NASBO NASACT Middle Management April 12, 2016.
The New Hampshire Economy & Household Finances
Economic Policy Division
Budget and Economic Forecast
Presentation transcript:

1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” New Hampshire in Recovery January 7, 2011 Dennis Delay Board of Directors Todd Selig, Chair Mike F. Buckley John D. Crosier, Sr. William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos Donna Sytek, Immediate Past Chair Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

2 4 Themes NH is half way home to Recovery Manufacturing is most important. Reasons for a structural deficit State revenue forecast

3 Anecdotal evidence from the Fed Bank of Boston, December 1, 2010 New England continues to expand gradually. Contacts in manufacturing, software and IT services, staffing, and commercial real estate seem more upbeat. Retailers continue to give mixed reports. Residential real estate markets remain soft. Labor demand is improving somewhat, with most contacted sectors undertaking modest net hiring. Some firms report raising prices or wages and complain of selected increases in non-labor costs, but most say they are holding their prices and wages stable. The outlook for 2011 is slightly more optimistic than last time, with somewhat less reference to downside possibilities.

4 NH is Half Way Home

5 NH Job Recession and Recovery

66 The History (and Future) of State Budgets In One Slide

7 4 Themes NH is half way home to Recovery Manufacturing is most important. Reasons for a structural deficit State revenue forecast

8 Manufacturing is Important to New Hampshire.

9 Manufacturing is the most important export industry in terms of employment size, tourism is second. Source: INHS Tourism Satellite Account FY2008

10 Manufacturing’s higher wages means it lends more support to GSP from sales outside of the state. Source: INHS Tourism Satellite Account FY2008 Manufacturing is 4 times larger than Tourism

11 NH Manufacturing; Support for Public Services New Hampshire Manufacturers paid over $100 million in combined State Business Profits and Business Enterprise Taxes in FY2008. Manufacturers also pay state and local property taxes, unemployment insurance taxes, etc. Creating 100 new manufacturing jobs in New Hampshire results in an additional 138 indirect and induced jobs in the rest of the New Hampshire economy, and adds (per year) –$11 million in earnings, –$18 million in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), –Generates $1.2 million in state and local tax revenue.

12 How Do NH General Fund Revenues Change with the NH Economy?

13 The Great Recession reversed the forecast variance.

14..and this Recession has been very hard on revenue

15 4 Themes NH is half way home to Recovery Manufacturing is most important. Reasons for a structural deficit State revenue forecast

16 What is a “Structural Deficit”? A “structural deficit” is a situation where, with no change in tax laws or public services, tax revenues do not increase as fast as expenditures.

17 Does New Hampshire Have a Structural Deficit? “New Hampshire can be characterized as having a long-term structural deficit in the sense that for a given scope of programs and revenue system, expenditures grow automatically faster than revenues.” KPMG Peat Marwick February 13, 1992

18 State Revenues, Expenditures, and Gross State Product

19 State Revenues Grew Because of New Taxes and Non-Tax Sources

20 Taxes on Volume [Per Unit] (Gas Tax) or Ad Valorem (Meals and Rooms)

21 NH Volume (per unit) taxes don’t keep pace with economy.

22 A NH volume (per unit) tax with rate changes.

23 NH Ad Valorem (value based) Taxes move with the economy.

24 Some Ad Valorem (value based) Taxes Show Lots of Variance!

25 Two Thirds of NH Revenue Does Not Grow with Economy, or Is Unstable

26 Structural Deficit: So What? Recognize to scale back on state activities OR recognize the necessity to raise tax rates or add new taxes to maintain a constant level of services. Results in more detailed review of all state programs every biennium because there is always a looming shortfall. Creates regular atmosphere of crisis and stress. Reduces possibility of surpluses for investment in desirable one-time projects. Makes long-term strategic planning more difficult. Should not be used as a political weapon to bludgeon the other political party.

New Hampshire State Revenue by Type (Millions $)

28 4 Themes NH is half way home to Recovery Manufacturing is most important. Reasons for a structural deficit State revenue forecast

29 NHCPPS Model Showing Revenues on Target

30 NHCPPS Model for BPT

31 NHCPPS Model for BET

32 NHCPPS Model for Meals and Rooms

33 NHCPPS Model for Interest and Dividends

34 NHCPPS Model Results

35 NHCPPS Model Simulations

36 Upcoming Budget Problem? Size of that is still hard to determine … $250 to $680m depending on a variety of assumptions. What will the economy do? –The Center’s revenue estimation model suggests that revenues will increase by approximately 3.5% from What will the federal government do regarding enhanced federal dollars? –The 2011 budget as passed (again) this past spring includes $124 million in federal revenue enhancements. Will this ‘spigot’ be turned off? What will the NH legislature do? –A series of state budget changes/reductions (most of which affect local aid) will end effective July 1, 2012, increasing state obligations by $93 million. –Education funding plan will increase state obligations ($100m). –What kind of spending changes will be introduced?

37 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors Todd Selig, Chair Mike F. Buckley John D. Crosier, Sr. William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos Donna Sytek, Immediate Past Chair Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies All of our reports are available on the web: