Laura Tremblay-BoyerEric Ross Anderson A Preliminary Assessment of Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change in Panama Presented in the McGill Panama Field Study Semester Internship Program Symposium Research in Panama (ENVR 451) On the 26 th of April 2007 at 9:05am in the Tupper Building of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama

Host Institution Supervisors: Emil Cherrington and Roxana Segundo Supervisors: Emil Cherrington and Roxana Segundo The Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean The Mesoamerican Regional Visualization and Monitoring System

EVCC an index of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change I.Sea level rise Elevación del nivel del mar II.Ecosystem Geometry Geometría de los ecosistemas III.Climatic niche Espacio climático IV.Species Sensitivity Sensibilidad de las especies The main tool for this project was Geographical Information Systems (software: ArcGIS), kindly provided by CATHALAC The main tool for this project was Geographical Information Systems (software: ArcGIS), kindly provided by CATHALAC

Methods Ethics Statement Ethics Statement Credibility of the resultsCredibility of the results Vulnerability values were calculated for each ecosystem patch of Panama according to its ecosystem type Vulnerability values were calculated for each ecosystem patch of Panama according to its ecosystem type

Ecosystems: types and patches Example: 1 ecosystem type has 27 separate and individual patches Example: 1 ecosystem type has 27 separate and individual patches Tropical broadleaf evergreen submontane rainforest ( m Caribbean, m Pacific) – no human intervention 37 ecosystem types 37 ecosystem types 1303 patches 1303 patches

Land in coastal zones with an elevation of zero to one meter was selected Land in coastal zones with an elevation of zero to one meter was selected A vulnerability value based on this density was obtained A vulnerability value based on this density was obtained EVCC 1 - Sea level rise

1. Ratio: Edge vs. Core EVCC 2 - Ecosystem geometry is more vulnerable than 2. Relative Perimeter ABAB C D

C 1 km 2 3. For each ecosystem patch, average Gower metric of all cells for temperature and precipitation 4. Independently rank average Gower metric of all ecosystem patches on a scale from 1 to 10 for temperature and precipitation Gower metric for each 1 km 2 cell: Predicted change in temperature and precipitation in 2025, 2050 and 2099 Intra-annual temperature and precipitation range EVCC 3 – Climatic Niche of the Ecosystems

C + EVCC 3 – Results

C EVCC 3 rank for temperature vs. precipitation, area of bubble represents the number of ecosystem patches with that combination of rank vs. EVCC 3 Temperature vs. Precipitation for each ecosystem patch

C EVCC 4 – Species sensitivity

C EVCC 4 – Results

C EVCC 4 and the distribution of endemic species

Total Vulnerabilities According to the quality and pertinence of the data, the rank of importance: According to the quality and pertinence of the data, the rank of importance:

C Additional EVCC Applications

C EVCC and degree of human intervention Red = highest average; orange = second highest; yellow = third highest. Blue = most commonly ranked with high vulnerability Level of interventionAvg_EVCC 1 Ave_EVCC 2 Ave_EVCC 3 Ave_EVCC 4 Ave_EVCC 0none Natural system with low intervention Natural system with medium intervention Natural system with high intervention in mountains Natural system with high intervention in lowlands Productive system with 10-50% natural veg Productive system with <10% natural veg Agroforestry Shrimp / Salt production Populated place

C Average EVCC inside protected areas = Average EVCC for all of Panama = EVCC and Protected Areas

C Distribution of biodiversity and endemic species in Panama a. Distribution of biodiversity b. Endemic Species

Correlations between the EVCCs, distribution of biodiversity and endemic species # species # endemic species

C Combining EVCC with the distribution of biodiversity – in a map

Conclusions  The EVCC index has the potential to be a very useful tool for conservation of large-scale biodiversity;  It is important to include the uncertainties and to be flexible in the application of this index, always including and improving it with the latest scientific knowledge;  Climate change should be evaluated in conjunction with other factors that threaten ecosystems

What have we learned? “Vulnerability” or “vulnerabilidad” is a difficult word to say… in all languages “Vulnerability” or “vulnerabilidad” is a difficult word to say… in all languages GIS is a very powerful tool GIS is a very powerful tool Communication is essential Communication is essential The availability of data is necessary to increase the quality of environmental studies The availability of data is necessary to increase the quality of environmental studies

Acknowledgments Our university and professors Our university and professors CATHALAC, SERVIR, and NASA CATHALAC, SERVIR, and NASA