Global Climate Change

Overview o Introduction to Climate Change Causes of Global Climate Change Causes of Global Climate Change o Effects of Climate Change Melting Ice and Rising Sea Level Melting Ice and Rising Sea Level Changes in Precipitation Patterns Changes in Precipitation Patterns Effects on Organisms Effects on Organisms Effects on Human Health Effects on Human Health Effects on Agriculture Effects on Agriculture o Dealing with Global Climate Change

To Start Off o Where does all the data for Climate Change come from? IPCC – Inter-Governmental Panel for Climate Change (ALL scientists from All countries who are studying CC) IPCC – Inter-Governmental Panel for Climate Change (ALL scientists from All countries who are studying CC)

Myth versus Fact MYTH: This IS NOT a Democrat/Republican debate MYTH: This IS NOT a Democrat/Republican debate FACT: This problem is REAL and IS already affecting Humans and ALL LIVING THINGS on this planet that have the RIGHT to exist without these Human induced consequences! FACT: This problem is REAL and IS already affecting Humans and ALL LIVING THINGS on this planet that have the RIGHT to exist without these Human induced consequences! FACT: We can curtail the long-term consequences which WILL stem from our current INACTION FACT: We can curtail the long-term consequences which WILL stem from our current INACTION

Introduction to Climate Change- Mean Annual Global Temperature

Climate Change Terminology o Greenhouse Gas Gas that absorbs infrared radiation Gas that absorbs infrared radiation Ex: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons and tropospheric ozone Ex: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons and tropospheric ozone o Positive Feedback Change in some condition triggers a response that intensifies the changed condition Change in some condition triggers a response that intensifies the changed condition o Infrared Radiation Radiation that has a wavelength that is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of radio waves Radiation that has a wavelength that is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of radio waves o Greenhouse Effect Increase of heat in a system where energy enters (often as light), is absorbed as heat, and released sometime later Increase of heat in a system where energy enters (often as light), is absorbed as heat, and released sometime later

Introduction to Climate Change o Evidence for Climate Change 11 of the 12 years between 1995 and 2006 were among the twelve warmest years since the mid-1800s 11 of the 12 years between 1995 and 2006 were among the twelve warmest years since the mid-1800s Phenological spring in N. hemisphere now comes 6 days earlier Phenological spring in N. hemisphere now comes 6 days earlier o Warming is not due to natural causes Human produced greenhouse gases are most plausible explanation Human produced greenhouse gases are most plausible explanation

WAKE UP AND FREAK OUT LOOK AND LISTEN!!!

Causes of Climate Change o Greenhouse gas concentrations increasing

Causes of Climate Change o Increased concentration of CO 2 (right) Burning fossil fuels in cars, industry and homes Burning fossil fuels in cars, industry and homes Deforestation Deforestation Burning of forests Burning of forests

Global instrumental temperature record Departures in temperature (°C) from the average 5 Warmest years so far: (El Niño year)

CO 2 (ppmv) Thousands of Years Before Present Present CO 2 concentration (381 ppmv) CO 2 concentration after 50 years of unrestricted fossil fuel burning (600 ppmv) Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004 Temp. Proxy

Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) A1 A2 B1 B2 IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios F. Joos, 1999

Stabilizing at 2xCO 2 (green curve) is by no means “safe”, but achieving this much will be very difficult and more might not be possible. Atmospheric Stabilization Emission Paths

GFDL model simulations of Surface Air Warming (°F) Northern hemisphere mid- continent average warming is 15-25°F! ➙ This is a roasted world. 2xCO 2 4xCO 2

o Sea level rise by thermal expansion AND ice melt by thermal expansion AND ice melt o Sea ice melting (Arctic and Antarctic) o Glaciers melting worldwide o Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula heating up fastest o Melting on ice sheets is accelerating o More severe weather (droughts, floods, storms, heat waves, hard freezes, etc.) o Bottom line: These changes do not fit the natural patterns unless we add the effects of increased GHGs These changes do not fit the natural patterns unless we add the effects of increased GHGs Signs that global warming is underway

Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Gasses o Let sunlight in short wavelengths short wavelengths o Earth heats up and radiates heat longer wavelengths longer wavelengths o GHGs don’t let Earth’s heat out don’t let Earth’s heat out

Increased Greenhouse Gasses Earth’s “cooling” system is “clogged” o Net effect: Earth warms to a Earth warms to atemperature where its radiation is shorter wave- lengths and can escape

Climate Models o Climate affected by: winds, clouds, ocean currents, and albedo winds, clouds, ocean currents, and albedo o Used to explore past climate events o Advanced models can project future warming events o Models are only as good as the data and law used to program them They have limitations They have limitations

Climate Models

Effects of Global Climate Change- Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels o Sea level rise caused in 2 ways Thermal Expansion Thermal Expansion Water expands as it warms Water expands as it warms Melting of land ice Melting of land ice Retreat of glacier and thinning of ice at the poles Retreat of glacier and thinning of ice at the poles o Melting has positive feedback Increased melting decreases ice, which decreases albedo leading to further warming Increased melting decreases ice, which decreases albedo leading to further warming

Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels

24 McCarty Glacier, Alaska

25 Muir and Riggs Glaciers

Case-In-Point Impacts in Fragile Areas o Eskimo Inuit live traditional life dictated by freezing climate o Climate change is altering their existence Wildlife are smaller or displaced Wildlife are smaller or displaced Reduced snow cover and shorter river ice seasons Reduced snow cover and shorter river ice seasons Thawing of permafrost (right) Thawing of permafrost (right)

o Some areas will get more water, some areas will have greater droughts Ex: Hurricanes will likely get stronger Ex: Hurricanes will likely get stronger Effects of Global Climate Change- Changing Precipitation Patterns

o Zooplankton in parts of California Current have decreased by 80% since 1951 Effecting entire food chain Effecting entire food chain o Decline in krill around Antarctica Caused decrease in penguin populations Caused decrease in penguin populations o Species have shifted their geographic range o Migrating birds are returning to summer homes earlier Food is not available at this time Food is not available at this time Effects of Global Climate Change- Effects on Organisms

Effects on Organisms - Coral Reefs o Coral reefs can be bleached (right) due to increase in water temperature Affects coral symbiotes and makes them more susceptible to diseases to which they would otherwise be immune Affects coral symbiotes and makes them more susceptible to diseases to which they would otherwise be immune

Effects of Global Climate Change o Ocean as CO 2 sink - excess CO 2 is starting to harm ocean life

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This is very “inconvenient”

Effect on Organisms - Vegetation Beech Tree Range

Effects on Human Health o Increased number of heat-related illnesses and deaths

Effects on Agriculture o Difficult to anticipate Productivity will increase in some areas and decrease in others Productivity will increase in some areas and decrease in others o Rise in sea level will inundate flood plains and river valleys (lush farmland) o Effect on pests is unknown o Warmer temperatures will decrease soil moisture- requiring more irrigation o Location (i.e. elevation and altitude) where certain crops can be grown may have to change

International Implications of Climate Change o Developed vs. Developing countries Differing self- interests Differing self- interests Differing ability to meet the challenges of climate change Differing ability to meet the challenges of climate change

Dealing with Global Climate Change o To avoid the worst of climate change, CO 2 levels must be stabilized at 550ppm 50% higher than current levels 50% higher than current levels o Two ways to attempt to manage climate change Mitigation Mitigation Focuses on limiting greenhouse gas emissions to moderate global climate change Focuses on limiting greenhouse gas emissions to moderate global climate change Adaptation Adaptation Focuses on learning to live with to the environmental changes and societal consequences brought about by global climate change Focuses on learning to live with to the environmental changes and societal consequences brought about by global climate change

Dealing with Global Climate Change- Relationship Between Mitigation and Adaptation

Dealing with Global Climate Change- Mitigation o Locate/invent alternative fuels to fossil fuels o Increase efficiency of cars and trucks o Sequestering carbon before it is emitted o Plant and Maintain trees to naturally sequester carbon

Dealing with Global Climate Change- Adaptation o Rising sea levels and coastal populations Move inland Move inland Construct dikes and levees Construct dikes and levees o Adapt to shifting agricultural zones o NYC sewer line

International Efforts to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emission o Kyoto Protocol Legally binding Legally binding Provides operational rules on reducing greenhouse gases Provides operational rules on reducing greenhouse gases US has not signed it- it will be difficult to implement without US backing US has not signed it- it will be difficult to implement without US backing Copenhagen Copenhagen