Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy BCA Dialogue August 2013 Webcast August 6, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation.

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Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy BCA Dialogue August 2013 Webcast August 6, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation

EM RELATIVE PERFORMANCE APPROACHING 2008 LOWS EQUITY PERFORMANCE*: EMERGING MARKETS VS DEVELOPED MARKETS * REBASED TO JAN = 100 AND SHOWN IN COMMON CURRENCY TERMS; SOURCE: MSCI INC. (SEE COPYRIGHT DECLARATION) © BCA Research 2013

MIRRORS THE ECONOMY’S SWINGS CHINA: SOCIAL FINANCING STOCK Ann% Chg Ann% Chg © BCA Research 2013

RISKS ARE RISING BCA GLOBAL ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDEX** Extreme Optimism Extreme Pessimism High Speculation Low Speculation U.S.: BCA EQUITY SPECULATION INDEX* U.S.: MARGIN DEBT Bn$ © BCA Research 2013

TOO OPTIMISTIC LONG TERM, TOO PESSIMISTIC SHORT TERM U.S.: REAL EFFECTIVE FED FUNDS RATE MARKET EXPECTATION* % % * DERIVED FROM THE OIS AND CPI INFLATION SWAP CURVES. © BCA Research 2013

6 GEOPOLITICS A DOWNSIDE RISK TO OIL? OCTJANAPRJULOCTJANAPRJULOCT GOOGLE IRAN REFERENCES* (LS) IRANIAN ENRICHED URANIUM AT 20%** (RS) Kg * INDICATOR REPRESENTS NUMBER OF GOOGLE SEARCHES OF “IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM” RELATIVE TO PAST SEARCHES OF THE TERM. THE INDICATOR IS NORMALIZED AND MEASURED ON A SCALE. ** SOURCE: IAEA. © BCA Research 2013

7 EM POLITICAL RISKS RISING EMERGING MARKETS*: BCA GOVERNANCE INDICATOR** (LS) GDP PER CAPITA*** (RS) Th USD * INCLUDES CHINA, BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, MEXICO, INDONESIA, TURKEY, MALAYSIA, THE PHILIPPINES, THAILAND, AND SOUTH AFRICA. ** INDICATOR IS AN EQUALLY-WEIGTHED AVERAGE OF THE FOLLOWING MEASURES: GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS, VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY, POLITICAL STABILITY AND VIOLENCE, RULE OF LAW, AND CONTROL OF CORRUPTION. SOURCE: WORLD BANK AND BCA RESEARCH. *** WEIGHTED BY POPULATION. Emerging Markets Developed Markets BCA GOVERNANCE INDICATOR SHOWN USING 2011 DATA. INDICATOR IS AN EQUALLY- WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE FOLLOWING MEASURES: GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS, VOICE AND ACOUNTABILITY, POLITICAL STABILITY AND VIOLENCE, RULE OF LAW, AND CONTROL OF CORUPTION. SOURCE: WORLD BANK AND BCA RESEARCH CALCULATIONS. © BCA Research 2013

8 EUROPE: INVESTMENT OR A VALUE-TRAP? EURO AREA: REAL EQUITY PRICES* TREND TREND +/- TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS * DEFLATED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX. SHOWN AS A NATURAL LOGARITHM. TIME TREND: PRESENT. © BCA Research 2013

9 JAPAN: INVESTMENT OR A TRADE? AVERAGE OF PAST FOUR UPPER HOUSE ELECTIONS 2013 UPPER HOUSE RESULT HOKKAIDOIWATEAOMORIKUMAMOTOMIYAGIFUKUSHIMAIBARAKITOCHIGIMIYAZAKIKAGOSHIMA LDP PERFORMANCE IN AGRICUTURAL-HEAVY PREFECTURES © BCA Research 2013

10 U.S.: VOLATILITY AHEAD U.S. POLICY UNCERTAINTY INDEX* (LS) VIX VOLATILITY INDEX (RS) * SOURCE: BAKER, BLOOM, AND DAVIS (2012). © BCA Research 2013