Sheila Walsh Reddy The Nature Conservancy 1 Enabling Businesses To Evaluate the Role of Habitats in Hurricane Risk Mitigation

Growing business risk…. (KPMG 2011) 1.Climate Change 2.Energy & Fuel 3.Material Resource Scarcity 4.Water Scarcity 5.Population Growth 6.Urbanization 7.Wealth 8.Food Security 9.Ecosystem Decline 10.Deforestation

Sources: 1. U.S. Congress, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Bills – HR 4939, PL and HR 3673, PL (2005), 2. Draft Comprehensive Coast-wide Ecosystem Restoration Study, Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, October 2003 …..and business opportunities. Sustainably managing ecosystems makes economic sense. (MEA 2005) Hurricane Katrina $110 billion relief fund 1 $14 billion restoration 2

Need Tools To Measure Missing Assets and Liabilities $ Manufactured Capital Natural Capital (Photo credit: Jen Molnar, Wikicommons) Human Capital

Growing conservation challenges….. TNC 1955

……global conservation needs partnerships. TNC 2013: priority areas TNC Lands (USA)

Nature Conservancy-Dow Collaboration To find ways for companies to incorporate the value of nature into business decisions. Jennifer Molnar

TNC-Dow Pilot site analyses Globe: Photos: Jennifer Molnar Freeport, Texas Santa Vitória, Brazil Air quality via reforestation Coastal protection Freshwater supply Agricultural supply chain

Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation Globe: Photos: Jennifer Molnar Hypothesis: Understanding the role of coastal habitats in storm protection will improve levee design and reduce costs, especially in the face of sea level rise

The Problem Global Losses from Natural Hazards are Increasing Billions US$

The Opportunity Ecosystems May Mitigate Losses

Natural and Built Infrastructure And? Or? Salt marshLevee or Sea wall

Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation 13

Valuation for Corporate Coastal Hazard Mitigation Natural Hazard Mitigation Economic Costs and Benefits to Business and Public Levees Additional Benefits (e.g. Recreation) Biodiversity Habitat

Scenario Comparisons Coastal HabitatLevee Coastal Habitat + Levee Designed for Coastal Habitat

Methods: Overview Model future land cover with sea level rise, development Identify levee design for 100 yr storm Analyze flood and damages from Cat 1-5 storms Compare avoided damages Assess other public and ecosystem benefits Evaluate opportunities to enhance/protect values

Sea Level Rise and Decreasing Marsh Habitat 17 35% decrease in marsh 9% decrease in marsh Current2050, 0.57 m sea level rise2100, 1.29 m sea level rise

Sea Level Rise and Marsh Loss Increases Risk from a 100 yr Storm in m Sea Level Rise 12% Higher Floods 9% Higher Levee Costs Mitigating Effect of Habitat 1% Lower Floods 1% Lower Levee Costs

Small Private and Large Public Benefits from Habitat 19 Habitat for >200 Species Habitat for 12 Fisheries Carbon Sequestration - Negative in long-term Additional Habitat Values: *Chart not to scale *

Restoration May Maintain/Improve Benefits Restored Dry Lands

c Other Potential Opportunities for Coastal Protection?

c Outcomes 22 The Value of Information for Risk Management Science: Link ecological change to business value Business method: Ability to value missing assets Inform Conservation/ Business Priorities: When do marshes have significant protective values?

Future Challenges: An Invitation Science: Link ecological change to business value

Future Challenges: An Invitation Business method: Ability to value missing assets

Future Challenges: An Invitation Inform Conservation/ Business Priorities: When do marshes have significant protective values?

Acknowledgments TNC-Sustainability Science: Sheila Walsh (co-lead), Tim Boucher, Jon Fisher, Anthony Rogers, Alex Maas, Jen Molnar Dow: Doug Whipple (co-lead), Daniel Ramirez, John DiMuro, Judy Gunderson TNC-TX: Jorge Brenner, Michael Thompson Natural Capital Project: Greg Guannel, Rob Griffin, Joe Faries, Joey Bernhardt, Greg Verutes, Spencer Wood, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Anne Guerry TNC-Global Marine: Mike Beck, Chris Shepard Warren Pinnacle Consulting: Jonathon Clough, Marco Propato, Amy Polaczyk AIR: Akshay Gupta, Andrew Kao Funding: Dow Chemical Company Foundation

Extra Slides 27

Landcover Change 28

Value of nature Company Jennifer Molnar Public Ecosystems

Hybrid and Levee Infrastructure Scenarios Provide Similar Levels of Private Protection 30