Bill Sargent Trust Lecture 27th June 2012

Child Poverty Act All parties signed up to Child Poverty Act Commits all UK governments to end child poverty by 2020 Transformed from a target to a binding legal duty ‘Fairness’ agenda

Why target child poverty in the UK? Child poverty more than doubled 1979 – 1997: /99 % (BHC) % (AHC) No.(BHC) millions m No.(AHC) millions m (Poverty = below 60% median equivalised, household income, Department of Work and Pensions (2010) HBAI: 1994/ /09) 1998/99 year child poverty target set – base year

Stealing away children’s life chances Education divide – poorer children 9 months behind (Hirsch D, 2007) Health divide – socio-economic conditions mean greater risk heart disease, death by stroke, disability, poor mental health (Spencer N, 2008) Wellbeing divide – negative impact on relationship with parents, educational orientation, low self-worth and risky behaviour (Tomlinson and Walker, 2009) Costs £25 billion a year in public spending (JRF, 2008)

Progress to date Actual figures and projections: BHC AHC Baseline year 98/99: 3.4 million 4.4 million Latest official figures 10/11: 2.3 million 3.6 million IFS estimate for 20/21: 3.3 million 4.3 million Gov’t target for 20/21: 1.3 million* N/A (* 10% of children based on 2010/11 population count) Sources: HBAI 1998/ /11; Children and Working-Age poverty from 2010 to 2020, IFS 2010.

Income and life chances No. of children failing to get any qualification declined from 35,000 in 1999 to 7,000 in 2009 Attainment gap between poor children, those claiming free school meals, and other children, declined between 2003 and 2008 increased income affects parental psychological functioning and children’s socio-emotional and health outcomes Child wellbeing improved on 36 out of 48 child indicators – (Bradshaw, 2011)

Historical Trend – since 1970

Budget and Spending Review 2010 £81bn public sector cuts - benefits and services £18bn in benefit cuts (£20bn in all) CB freeze and cut, tax credits slashed (disregards, taper, help with childcare, etc), baby/toddler elements, HiP grant, SS grant, Child Trust Fund, cuts to DLA, CTB and HB Poorest families hardest hit - particularly families with young children

2012/13

We face child poverty crisis For poorest families - high inflation, rising unemployment, stagnating wages Triple whammy - £18bn benefit cuts, service cuts and advice sector cuts – more to come through cuts to legal aid. Largest cuts are still to come – 12% so far April £2.5 bn benefits and tax credits cuts Budget 2012 – possible £10bn more benefit cuts Steve Hilton report – proposed £25 billion cuts! David Cameron speech – 25 th June 2012

Child poverty set to rise Claim - no measurable impact on child poverty for the next two years – up to April 2013 Child Tax Credit rise removed in Autumn statement – 100,000 rise child poverty (Treasury) Latest IFS projections show child poverty will rise by 800,000 between 2010 and 2020 Rise of 900,000 children on ‘absolute’ measure Also likely rises in persistent poverty and deprivation levels

Some conclusions Investment in the early years and early intervention – yes But don’t neglect income – a long way to go to reduce the scandal of child poverty Last time poverty rose on this scale – the government’s preferred indicators went up Tackle low pay and quality of jobs Ensure Universal Credit works to improve incentives to work and to progress in work – invest more, lower taper, improve design Benefit cuts will damage all this

What works? Worth reminding ourselves - what benefits all families, including the ‘squeezed middle’ also benefits poor families – good quality jobs, decent pay levels, decent Child Benefit, universal childcare, family-friendly jobs, decent insurance benefits, high quality services - poverty prevention Or else - looming crisis of wasted lives and life chances being snatched away Not inevitable – it’s what will happen if no action taken to stop it