The Future of Voice TOTAL TELECOM Breakfast Briefing June 2013 HOT TELECOM

‘Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated’ Mr. Voice

Traffic growth 16% 1996 Net traffic add (billion minutes) 12% % % F Traffic: IDD + VoIP off-net

Voice traffic growth (%) vs net add (billion minutes) Traffic net add

THE GREAT MIGRATIONS

DEVICE MIGRATION Fixed to mobile In 2006, 32% of the world’s telecom subscribers were subscribed to fixed services. In 2013 this ratio is expected to have decreased to 14%. In 2006, 60% of the world’s IDD traffic was generated by fixed subscribers. In 2013 this ratio is expected to have decreased to 38%. World fixed vs mobile IDD traffic ratio

TECHNOLOGY MIGRATION TDM to IP In 2006, 20% of the world’s International traffic was VoIP traffic. In 2013, this ratio is expected to have reached 32%. In 2018, we are forecasting that 53% of the world’s International traffic will be VoIP traffic. World IDD vs VoIP International traffic

SOCIAL MIGRATION Calling yesterday Texting today Using apps tomorrow

SOCIAL MIGRATION Voice to Data The UK example People in the UK are now more likely to text than to make a phone call While 58% of people communicated via texts on a daily basis in 2011, only 47% made a daily mobile call. For the first time, there was a fall in the volume of mobile calls - by just over 1% - in 2011, while landline calls were down by 10%. Overall time spent on the phone fell by 5% in * Data taken from Ofcom report

SOCIAL MIGRATION Data to OTT World sms vs OTT messages (billion) * Source: MobiThinking, Portio Research, World Bank

WHAT IS FORCING THE EVOLUTION? IP

THE GREAT DENIAL Is that a telecom operator I see with its head in the sand?

Denial Anger Depression Bargaining Acceptance “ When a person is faced with the reality of impending death or other extreme, awful fate, he or she will experience a series of emotional stages” THE 5 STAGES OF TELECOM OPERATORS’ GRIEF

READY FOR THE FIGHT

WHAT IS THE OPPORTUNITY?

HOW ARE OPERATORS REACTING The OTT Challenge Do nothing (wait and see) Block OTTs Partner with or buying OTTs Compete with OTTs Create an app RCS-e / Joyn Grow other market segments

HOW ARE OPERATORS REACTING The IP Challenge Ride the TDM wave until the end and focus on data Get ready for the IP convergence (adopt IPX) Grow into other segments (data, content, media)

SERVICE EVOLUTION We're in the midst of an evolution, not a revolution

THE NEW VOICE Voice will not die but it will look different

BUSINESS MODELS W hat’s T he F uture Convergence of voice and data into a single pipe, offering, bundle. Voice becomes one of a series of IP services. Consolidation of the International wholesale market could be triggered by IPX and migration to IP. Per minute billing for voice could evolve to a capacity based billing down the line.

‘The best way to predict the future is to create it.’ Peter Drucker

 CONTACT INFORMATION   Isabelle Paradis, President

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