NESDEC K-12 Enrollment Projections through November 12, 2013

NESDEC Enrollment Assumptions The rate of housing growth. The number of homes sold. From , home sales will gradually increase. The Meadowood Development will be completed by the end of the decade. The final Powder Forest units will be constructed. Residential permitting has increased. Sales, thus far, appear to be stronger.

Table I – October 1 Enrollment History: through K-12: 5-year decline of 508 students. K-6: 5-year decline of 362 students. 7-8: 5-year decline of 100 students. 9-12: 5-year decline of 46 students. 5-year staffing reduction of 40.7 FTE.

Comments – Grade Configurations Comments K-12  K-12 Enrollment projected to decrease by 77 students for  Projected to decline by 415 students by or 9.6% Comments Grades 7-8  7-8 Enrollment projected to remain stable for  Projected to decline by 139 students by or 19.1% Comments K-6  K-6 Enrollment projected to decrease by 26 students for  Projected to decline 95 students by or 4.5% Comments Grades 9-12  9-12 Enrollment projected to decline by 51 students for  Projected to decline by 181 students by or 11.8%

Central School Projections Central School is projected to decrease by 5 students or 1.4% in Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 16 students or 4.3%.

Latimer Lane Projections Latimer Lane School is projected to decrease by 8 students or 1.9% in Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 24 students or 5.7%.

Squadron Line Projections Squadron Line School is projected to increase by 3 students or less than 1% in Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 53 students or 8.7%.

Tariffville Projections Tariffville School is projected to increase by 10 students or 3.6% in Five-year projections indicate an increase of 16 students or 5.8%.

Tootin’ Projections Tootin’ Hills School is projected to decrease by 26 students or 6.5% in Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 17 students or 4.3%.

Henry James Memorial Projections Henry James Memorial School is projected to maintain the same enrollment for Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 139 students or 19.1%.

Simsbury High Projections Simsbury High School is projected to decrease by 51 students or 3.3% in Five-year projections indicate a decrease of 181 students or 11.8%.

Births/Enrollment Comparison Kindergarten Enrollment through compared to Birth Year Over past 7 years, 125 kindergarteners for every 100 births have registered. In the fall of 2013, 138 kindergarteners for every 100 births registered representing the 3 rd highest ratio in over a decade.

Conclusions  2013 NESDEC projections suggest that K-12 student enrollment will decrease an average of 83 students per year for the next 5 years.  October 1, 2013 enrollment of 4330 is expected to decrease to 3915 students in  As the economy and real estate situations improve, we can anticipate stronger in-migration that may affect current patterns indicating decline in enrollment over 10 years.  A 13.6% K-1 in-migration ratio appears to be accurate for the foreseeable future.  Facilities & Enrollment Study Task Force will revisit the continuation of modular removal plan and any different/additional action necessary in response to the projected decrease in enrollment.

NESDEC K-12 Enrollment Projections through November 12, 2013