Societal Challenges Population Food Energy Water Environment Climate Change Health Poverty Population aka Wicked Problems

Agricultural Competitiveness  Improve crop and animal agriculture; enhance farm productivity and income; policies; supply chain; storage; transportation Ecological Footprint  Water/land use, natural resource and environmental stewardship, greenhouse gas, global climate change, depleted soils Bioeconomy  Replacements for petroleum-based products and enhance community economic well being Health  Food safety, nutrition, obesity, type II diabetes, cardiovascular disease, dementia, cancer, hunger, poverty, families/children 21 st Century Food System Challenges

Feed, shelter, clothe > 9 billion Climate change Land and water constraints Increasing urbanization Environmental degradation Minimal ecological footprint Changing income and diets Positive health outcomes

The Nexus

Sustainability = 3 Ps

Farming systems Improved technologies  Productivity gap: 1.5  2%  Peak farmland – Ausubel et al Closed loop systems Cooperatives – Kibbutz? Integrated/diversified Smart farming  Robotics, sensors, sentinels Resilient intensification  Policies and consequences Vertical farming Hydroponics Aquaponics Fish culture and irrigation ARO, Israel: Harpaz 2012

GRAINS MEASURED AS EDIBLE MEAT 100 KG FEED (protein, carbohydrates, fat) GIVES ARO, Israel: Harpaz 2012 Feed Efficiency

 Double food production in 40 years  Cut loss/waste by half?  Impact climate change

Water Quantity and quality  ~70-90 percent for food  Food safety issues Increase water productivity  Crop per drop Biological  Physiological – Transpiration  Genetics  ‘omics Food processing Virtual water Engineering, Physical  Irrigation, recycling, reuse  Desalination Robotics, sensors, sentinels FAOStat 2009

Roy et al ch_Climate_Report_2010_lowres.pdf Water Sustainability Index 2050

(adapted from graphic in Understandng the Nexus: Background paper for the Bonn2011 Nexus Conference)

Bioeconomy Food vs. fuel  Grain based vs. cellulosic Advanced biofuels – Renewable Fuel Standard – goal  EPA: 36 BGY by 2022; Pres. Obama: 60 BGY by 2030 o 2012 goal: 8.65 MGY; actual 20,000 gallons Challenges  Water use  Feedstocks o Agricultural, forestry, algal, municipal wastes  Biochemical vs. thermochemical process  Impact of fracking Petroleum- vs. bio- chemical feedstocks

Humans Matter Consumers, businesses, groups, communities, towns, states and countries make decisions  Information-dependent: Haves and Havenots Acceptance of technologies People impacts  Technical, Policy, Regulatory, and Social Change Social Sciences  Behavior, Choices, Attitudes  Risk and Change Nexus of Bio-Physical and Social Sciences  Advance science and integrate into society

Science 303:47-48 (2 January 2004) Path Forward: New Paradigms

Path Forward Virtual water and nitrogen  True costs? Transformative approaches  Blue Revolution  Perennial/multi cropping  Algae in oceans?  Modern Meadow, Inc. o 3-D printing  Bio-/nano-technology  Conversion of deserts Pest management Education & Extension Policy research Research investments Partnerships  Governments  Academic  Private  NGOs Big data Hoekstra and Mekonnen PNAS. doi: /pnas Virtual Water Flows

Researchable Questions Limiting water and energy footprints? Optimal crop portfolio? Regional water distribution policy analyses? Power plants vs. irrigation? Environmentally-friendly labeling? Impact of reduced food waste on reducing water/energy used in food production?

Impact of water stress on plant- and animal-disease/pest interactions? How do chemical signals between plants/animals and microbes change during water stress? Why are water-stressed plants and animals more susceptible to diseases? Are defense pathways altered? Mechanism of plant/animal response to water stress? Impact of water-stress on plant/animal development? On photosynthesis? On water use efficiency? Impact of water quality on crop and livestock production and protection?

Life cycle analyses Integrated information and improved technologies on impact of water conservation policies and practices at watershed scale Decision support and data to foster behavioral changes, inform policy design, and science priority decision making Accurate quantification of water use and integrated watershed data Quantifying impacts of drought Risk assessment of drought and links to climate change Public perceptions Role of water banks and other market-based mechanisms Data Needs

Development of drought tolerant or water conserving species Impacts of water reuse Data on landscape limits to energy production (bioenergy/fracking) and impact on food production/water resources Data of where, when, and how much water is actually used Data on quantity and quality of U.S. groundwater resources Better monitoring of the nexus, nor coordinating across all three systems True economic cost of degraded natural resources

NIFA Programs

FY 2013 NIFA Funding Opportunities Climate AFRI Climate Change, $5 million, closes April 15 Carbon Cycle Science (NASA, DOE, NOAA) $4.5 million, closes July 31 Water Sustainability and Climate (NSF), $5 million, closes September 10 Multi-National Call on Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research (EU, New Zealand, Canada) $0.5 million, closes September 3

FY 2013 NIFA Funding Opportunities Bioenergy AFRI Sustainable Bioenergy –$10 million CAP award, closes April 3 –$3 million standard grants (3-6 awards), closed April 3 Plant Feedstock Genomics for Bioenergy (DOE), $2 million closed February 25 Small Business Innovation Research  Phase I – up to $100,000  Phase II – up to $450,000 AFRI Foundational –Plant Health & Production and Plant Products, $37 million, closed Feb. 19 –Engineering Products & Processes, $12 million, closed February 13

FY 2013 NIFA Funding Opportunities Food Security AFRI Food Security, $5 million, closes July 17