Deborah Elms September

Eleven countries, three continents, diverse levels of economic development Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, Vietnam High quality, 21 st century agreement Accession clause Open to new members, especially from APEC Fourteen formal negotiating rounds held, starting in March 2010 Canada and Mexico join in 15 th round, Dec 12 2

1. Substantial scope Including behind the border measures 2. Depth Limited sensitivities 3. Shared set of norms and commitments Beyond bilateral arrangements Address noodle bowl problems of overlapping PTAs Attractive to developed and developing country members Note: 21 st century, high quality has not been defined by government negotiators 3

Section 1: Origins of the TPP P4 agreement, US templates, development Historical review of negotiations (thru Nov 2011) Section 2: Details of agreement What would a high quality deal look like anyway? How close does the TPP appear to come to ideal? Chapters cover: market access in goods, ROOs, services, investment, IPR, regulatory coherence, labor, environment, potential export rules Section 3: Connection of TPP to other PTAs Latin America, APEC, ASEAN, WTO, Regionalism 4

Existing, overlapping, FTAs pose major problems: most serious in goods Has severely complicated negotiations over both tariff reductions and over ROOs Complex structural negotiating positions United States and Peru Rest in a plurilateral offer on goods Officially, no exclusions Ten-year timeline At end of 10 years, may be all sorted 5

6

Specific areas of concern Dairy Sugar Textiles Footwear Tobacco Autos? Quantitative restrictions (TRQs): not yet dealt with (complicated because also in PTAs) Rules of origin Product-specific ROOs so far Yarn-forward likely for most textiles 7

Deadline of 2012 not going to be met Perhaps APEC, November 2013? Depends in part on Canada, Mexico Japan? Political level decisions needed Tensions within agreement-managing strategic and economic needs Accession procedures into TPP in future? Status as a living agreement High quality: compared to what benchmark? 8

For market access in goods No exclusions, including sensitive products in agriculture No special provisions for textiles Phase out of quantitative restrictions? Liberal Rules of Origin criteria In services Liberalize on basis of negative list Modest sensitivities allowed New topics, new ideas brought to table 9

Market Access-GoodsState-Owned Enterprises Agriculture TextilesTechnical Barriers to Trade Rules of Origin Sanitary, Phytosanitary Measures Customs CooperationInvestment ServicesFinancial ServicesTelecommunications E-CommerceBusiness MobilityGovernment Procurement CompetitionIntellectual PropertyLabor EnvironmentCapacity BuildingTrade Remedies 10

TPP members committed to including new issues21 st century topics Several topics lumped into horizontal basket Small and medium enterprise (SME) support Regulatory coherence Competitiveness Supply chain management Development As negotiations continue, innovative features increasingly watered down 11

12

13

14

15

Regulatory coherence Especially focused on TBT issues Single regulatory agency? Binding? Small and medium enterprises Folded into competitiveness and business facilitation Development Timelines Capacity building Financing 16

Maintain own labor laws as per 1998 ILO Declaration Not core ILO provisions Will apply to EPZs and free trade zones How to handle complaints? Connection between TPP and previous FTA commitments on labor Dispute settlement? 17

How to push conservationat TPP or national level? Uphold commitments under signed MEAs Conservation of natural resources and wildlife Includes fish, logging, trade in wildlife, CITES TPP and climate change Public participation? Dispute settlement? 18

State-owned enterprises Export competition Agricultural subsidies and food aid programs E-commerce rules Cross-border data flows and storage facility locations Extent of dispute settlement Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) rules? Investor-state? Government procurement Trade remedies 19

TPP is farthest reaching IP FTA yet Much more intrusive than TRIPS in WTO Access to medicines issues Data exclusivity, patent linkage, patent term extensions (access window) Biologics Drug pricing and reimbursement programs Copyright Trade secrets Local content requirements (for broadcast) 20

Geographical indications Third-party FTA commitments Compound names Enforcement Commercial scale Willful infringement ACTA vs. TPP provisions Internet service providers 3 step test Fair use exceptions Retransmission 21