2008 – Thoughts To Ponder IPAA Private Capital Conference January 16, 2008 Dan Pickering
2 What’s It Going To Be? …or Uh-Oh? Yippee!!
3 Who Is Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.? Energy Specialists Research, Investment Banking, Property A&D ~ 50 Employees Houston/Denver Offices Our clients are: □ Institutional Investors □ Companies Seeking Capital □ Companies Buying/Selling Assets
4 NYMEX Current Month Oil Price
5 What If Oil Falls by $20/bbl?
6 What If It Doesn’t?
7 What If China / India Slow? Cumulative Growth In Oil Consumption Incremental Demand ~ 5.1 mmbbls/day China / India
8 What If China / India Accelerate?
9 Does Inventory Matter?
10 How Scary Is The World? Iran Venezuela Mexico West Africa Iraq Russia Deepwater The Unknown
11 What If The Winter Stays Cold?
12 What If Gas Trades At $9/mcf? Source: Smith Bits, TPH
13 What If U.S. Drilling Holds Steady? U.S. Onshore U.S. Offshore LNG Canada Imports Total Supply % y/y *All figures in bcf/day Gas Supply Snapshot
14 Is There Too Much LNG? 2008E = +5.5 bcf/day 2009E = +4 bcf/day Global Supply
15 What If The Credit Crunch Lingers? E&P 2008 Free Cash $7/mcf
16 What About Alternative Energy?
17 Elections And Energy?
18 What If We Were In Another Business?!
19 Conclusions Everything Is Intertwined You want lower oil prices! Gas Is Global Risk Management Alternatives Are Real…And Small Energy Is Still The Best Game In Town
20 Put in Final Presentation Slide Here Tudor, Pickering & Co. Securities, Inc. is a leading institutional brokerage firm focusing on energy-sector research for institutional investors. The Company, a NASD broker-dealer, develops investment ideas for our clients by actively covering the E&P and oil service industries, while monitoring energy subsectors such as coal, nuclear, tankers and alternative energy. In addition to research activities, Tudor, Pickering has executed share repurchases and helped energy companies raise equity capital via co-manager and syndicate positions in numerous energy offerings including CPX, HERO, WARR, BAS, XCO. Our research is provided to institutional clients via published reports, concise s, and through direct interaction with our highly rated analysts and unique, specialized sales force. Tudor Pickering has 42 employees working from our main Houston office and two satellite offices in Denver, Colorado and New Orleans, Louisiana. The firm was established in February 2004 as Pickering Energy Partners and combined with Tudor Capital in February Contact Us Houston: Denver: New Orleans:
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