The Internet on Democratization Samantha Anderson Min Woong Choi Griffin O. Cohen The Effect Of Prof. James Vreeland 03 Dec 2013

Research Question Internet Democratization

Arab Spring (2011)

Hypothesis Internet growth will the likelihood of democratization Why? – The Internet facilitates communications and the share of information, both domestically and internationally Thus, gives the “people” more leverage increase We also predict the following: Democracies should both have more proportional Internet users and Internet growth In the years prior to democratization, countries should see a “build-up” effect of Internet growth, increasing each year prior to democratization

Debate Previous studies: -Cross section of data (Kedzie 1997) -Pooled, static data -Limited number of years (Best & Wade 2009) -Endogeneity Debate: -Does regime impact Internet? -Helen Milner (2005) -Democracies undoubtedly have more Internet users than autocracies

Argument Democratization Likelihood i,t (Political State of Country i,t ) x [(Internet Growth i,t-2 ) + (Internet Growth i,t-1 ) + (Internet Growth i,t )] =

Democratization 1995 – 2008: data from “Extreme Bounds of Democracy” (2013), 25 Total Niger Mexico

Case Studies China Middle East Tunisia Mexico Niger

Methodology Data from ,013 country-year observations 190 countries 25 countries transition from autocracy to democracy New Variables -Internet Growth per year (difference [logged], percent) -Regime Changes -Regime Transition Lagged Effect -3 years before democratization Statistical Tests: - Correlation -Regression (logistic, random effects, fixed effects, dynamic) -Graphs (two-way, quadratic, and descriptive data) -Lagged effect analysis -Descriptive Data (Internet era against counterfactual era)

Variables Independent: Internet growth (difference, logged) Dependent: Regime (democracy or autocracy) Control Variables: – GDP (per Capita, percentage growth) – Urban Population – Oil Net Exports – Muslim Population (in 1980) – Freedom of Speech – Social Globalization – Political Globalization

Correlations Internet Users Growth Effect on Democracy Internet Users Growth Effect on Democracy (logged) Linear Fractional Polynomial

The Survival of Democracy Dynamic Tests: Logistic, Conditional Fixed-Effects Logistic, Regression GDP Annual Growth: Significant across all tests Internet variables, GDP per Capita (2005 US$): Not Significant Implications: Przeworski et al. (2000) found that GDP per Capita would predict survival of democracy, but their study stopped at 1990 Thus, perhaps a shift has occurred and regimes must “perform” well as people have more leverage in today’s world

Democracy is More Likely in Countries with High Internet Growth Pooled, static tests: Random Effects, Fixed Effects Internet growth (percentage growth, difference logged): Significant across all tests Internet users per 100 persons: Not significant

Descriptive Data Dictatorship Democracy Internet Users by Regime Dictatorship Democracy Internet Users Growth by Regime

Democratization Dynamic Tests: Logistic and Random Effects Internet Users Percentage Growth: Not Significant GDP (per Capita, annual growth): Not Significant Internet Users Difference, logged: Significant across all models Implication: The number of people with access to the Internet matters, not the percentage growth

“Build-Up” Effect

“Build-Up” Effect: Implications Democratization is a process—it does not occur overnight Endogeneity debate: Increased Internet prior to democratization suggests the Internet influences regime

Analysis by Era

Implications PeopleGovernment

Huntington’s Wave Theory 19 th century to 1942 World War II to 1960s 1970s to 1990s

New Global Divide? Fourth Wave: Beginning with Arab Spring in 2011 Possible pullback? – Expect increase of democracy but also a strengthening of autocracies Autocracies may tighten restrictions Dictator’s Dilemna

Questions?