Brewer - Stockholm - 12.12.20061 Uncertainty about Emission Rights and Energy Prices - and Impact on Economic Growth Thomas L. Brewer Associate Professor,

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Presentation transcript:

Brewer - Stockholm Uncertainty about Emission Rights and Energy Prices - and Impact on Economic Growth Thomas L. Brewer Associate Professor, Georgetown University, Washington DC and Associate Fellow, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels

Brewer - Stockholm Outline of Comments Uncertainty and Transparency Issues about the Emissions Trading Scheme Three Episodes Current Situation Offsetting Border Measures to Address Energy Price and Competitiveness Issues

Brewer - Stockholm Three Episodes of Regulatory Uncertainty and Their Effects on EUA Prices Spring 2004 Spring 2006 Autumn 2006

Brewer - Stockholm EUA Prices: February 2003-June 2004 (From Point Carbon – used with permission)

Brewer - Stockholm EUA Prices: November 2005-October 2006 Chart from Carlo Carraro, FEEM, Italy Presentation at Florence School of Regulation, 20 September 2006 Used with permission.

Brewer - Stockholm Price developments on the EU market: Nov. 05 – Oct. 06

Brewer - Stockholm EUA Prices: November-December 2006 (From Point Carbon)

Brewer - Stockholm Current Situation: Commission Decision of 29 November 10 proposed NAPs rejected by the Commission (including Sweden, Germany and UK) 6 not yet submitted (Austria, Czech Rep., Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Spain) 9 pending

Brewer - Stockholm Specifics of Rejections Germany: Reduce total from 482 mmt to mmt Include new power plants UK: Inadequate list of plants Total allocations okay (246.2 mmt) Sweden: Next slide

Brewer - Stockholm Criteria Contravened by Swedish Plan 2. Allowances consistent with actual and projected progress toward fulfilling contribution to Community’s commitments in Decision 93/389/EEC 3. Allowances consistent with potential to reduce emissions 10. List of installations covered with quantities of allowances to be allocated to each one 12. JI/CDM limit: maximum percentage of total allowances to be CERs and ERUs

Brewer - Stockholm Excerpt from Summary Table in Commission Communication to Council and Parliament (next slide)

Brewer - Stockholm

Brewer - Stockholm Uncertainty and/or Transparency

Brewer - Stockholm Transparency Uncertainty

Brewer - Stockholm Inevitable Uncertainty and Controllable Transparency

Brewer - Stockholm Uncertainty Issues More Generally Four Levels 1. Terms and implementation of members’ National Allocation Plans (NAPs) 2. Future EU allocation and other rules 3. Industry coverage 4. International interactions of ETS with other climate regulatory regimes … and the trade regime

Brewer - Stockholm International Competitiveness Off-setting border measures on imports from ‘cheap energy’ non-Kyoto countries? EU Parliament resolution Commission position French government recent statement

Brewer - Stockholm For further information… “Business Perspectives on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme,” Climate Policy, 5 (2005): “The WTO and the Kyoto Protocol: Interaction Issues,” Climate Policy, 4 (2004):