Energy – Current Status and Policies Shuba V. Raghavan CSTEP Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 1

 Annual Primary Energy Consumption ~ 6500 Billion kWh or 550 MTOE  Annual CO2 emissions ~ 1.2 Billion Tons  Annual Electricity Net Generation ~ 800 Billion kWh  Per Capita Electricity Consumption ~ 650 kWh  Total World Primary Consumption ~ 144,000 Billion kWh  China and US Primary Energy Consumption each~ > 25,000 Billion kWh India – Energy Consumption Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 2

Emissions Profile of India Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 3 Data Source: Ministry of Environment and Forestry

Source Installed Capacity 2010 (MW)* Net Generation (Billion kWh) Coal81, Gas & Oil18,25678 Hydro& SHP39, Nuclear4,56011 Wind10,92516 Biomass2,2653 Solar Total164, Electricity – Installed Capacity Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 4

5 Power Capacity and Generation – 2010 Source: *Ministry of Power and Ministry of New & Renewable Energy websites

 Coal annually domestic coal mined > 500 Million tons  Today we import about 10% of our coal requirements. This will grow as we build more coal based plants  Indian coal fields are depleting – 4-5 decades left  Indian coal high ash content and low calorific value  Crude Oil domestic ~ 35 Million Tons  India imports over 75% of needs  Natural Gas domestic ~ 45 Billion cubic meters (~31 MTOE) Harnessing Resources Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 6

 Small hydel potential – 15,000 MW  Wind – onshore potential 45,000 MW  Biomass  Agro-waste, sugar cane bagasse, rice husk (5000 MW)  Wood chips, forest wastes, rice straw, coconut shells, etc (18,000 MW) (does not include dedicated biomass plantations)  Waste to Energy  Municipal Solid Waste (current capacity ~ 70 MW)  Solar  Resource unlimited  Price has to drop Renewable Sources - Potential Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 7

Other Renewable Energy Sources  Geo-thermal*  Potential 10,000 MW (Geological survey of India)  50 MW is planned in J&K  Tidal *  Curently 3.65 MW planned at Sunderbans  Gulf of Kutch has a potential of 1200 MW  Gulf of Cambay potential of 7,000 MW  Wave*  potential is 3700 MW – 7500 MW (5 – 10 KW/m and assuming 10% of the coastline) * Pillai and Banerjee, Energy (2009)

Future Requirement Projection based Elasticity on GDP and * *+ Installed Capacity (Mega Watts) 159, ,000737,000 Net Generation (Billion kWh) 805 1,860 3,720 Installed Capacity factoring DSM( (MW) 330,000600,000 Net Generation factoring DSM (BU) 1,6703,000 Generation from (BU) * ’Projecting at GDP growth rate of 8% and GDP-Electricity elasticity of ‘DSM Savings -for 2020 a 10% reduction in generation and in 2030 a 20% reduction is assumed

Source Installed Capacity 2010 (MW) Capacity in 2020 (MW)** Net Generation in 2020(Billion kWh) Share of Net Generation in 2020 Conventional140,867265,000 (80%) 1, % Small Hydro2,56010,000 (3%) 311.9% Wind11,80725,000 (7.6%) 362.2% Biomass *2,26510,000 (3%) 291.7% Solar1220,000 (6.1%) 332.0% Total157,511330,0001,656 Energy Mix in 2020 Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 10 *This consists of traditional biomass, sugar cane and waste to energy. In ,137 MW was from bagasse and agro-residue 7.8%

SourceCapacity (MW)** Plant Load Factor Net Generation in (Billion kWh) Share of Net Generation Conventional435,000 (72.5%) 72% 2, % Small Hydro15,000 (2.5%) 35% 461.5% Wind45,000 (7.5%) 20% 772.6% Biomass35,000 (5.8%) 70% % Solar70,000 (11.7%) 20% % Total600,0002,990 15% of Energy Mix from Renewable Sources in 2030? Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy %

 Poor Human Development Index  50% population below poverty line  42% dependent on kerosene for lighting  high dependent on biomass for cooking ~75% of rural households  Economy growing at 8 – 10% requires cheap energy sources equitably distributed all over the country  Inclusive growth  Reconcile economic growth and environmental concerns? Development Challenges Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 12

Energy Access for Cooking Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 13

Electricity to all by 2012– Mandate of RGGVY Un-electrified as of 2009 Electrification plans for Un-electrified as of March 2012 Villages 118,49978,25640,243 Remote Villages 18,0005,00013,000 Households (Millions)

 Current practice  biomass for cooking and kerosene for lighting affects health and is a huge burden on women and children  Challenges –  Provide clean fuel for basic needs of cooking and lighting  Energy should be accessible and affordable to the poor – particularly the rural poor  Geographical challenges of distributing energy Universal Access to Energy Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 15

 Ministry of Power – RGGVY mandate was to provide 1 kWh per day of electricity to every household by 2012 by grid extension  Villages and households that are ‘electrified’ face black outs and brown outs  Remote Village Electrification - decentralized based on renewables  NOT MNRE  NOT JNNSM  Decentralized options are economical today Rural Electrification – who is in charge? Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 16 1 kWh/day/HH for 69 million households would mean an additional capacity of just 6,500 MW

 IEP 2006 recommends goal of providing LPG, NG, biogass or kerosene to all in 10 years  Cooking fuel requirement unlike electricity does not increase indefinitely Providing clean cooking fuel to all Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 17 Providing LPG to 1.5 Billion People will imply total energy of the order 55 MTOE

It is often neither the technology nor the economics It is the institutional mechanisms that often stall large scale dissemination  Subsidy Regime  Appropriate level to stimulate market mechanisms  Aligned to aid sustainable operations  On going operations  Service and Maintenance  Monitoring and Verification  Biomass units – a large percentage after set up are not working – Collection of biomass  On going price of biomass  Solar and other small decentralized generations  Payment and Collection of payment for the generated electricity

Critical factors in design of off-grid applications Technology Choice Delivery Mechanism Consumer Service Affordability Sustainable Financial Mechanisms Institutional Mechanism Long term Sustainable Working of off- grid applications

Center for Study of Science Technology and Policy 20 Thank You!