Renewable Energy in North America

Rick Van Schoik Director, NACTS Renewable Energy Development and Transborder Exchange April 2011

AGENDA Who we are: NACTS, BRP, SCERP Energy: Worldwide, MX, US Why Renewable Energy (RE) Why the exchange in borderlands Why states have a role Status and opportunities Obstacles and roadmap

NACTS Consortium of US, Canadian and Mexican universities: Promote concept of North America, Prosperity and Competitiveness, Borders and Security, Environmental Commons/Future

ASU RENEWABLE ENERGY Largest solar test facility in the U.S. Light Works top research in world Several algae fuel projects Next generation energy research Massive investment in powering campus with wind, solar, etc. as we move to become carbon-neutral

PARTNERS Border Research Partnership Waste Tires Human Trafficking Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy

BIG PICTURE: CONNECTIONS Energy Is: Quality of life Water supply and quality Economic development Pollution and health impacts Greenhouse gases and climate Local, regional, and gobal

ENERGY Energy is NOT indigenous to all parts of the border (Coal, oil and gas in east) Generation and sources are connected: Electricity (power lines) Natural Gas (pipelines) Petroleum (pipelines) Siting of LNG plants

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Reduced health-impacting air pollutants Contained water pollution Greenhouse climate shifting gases Wild land defense

ENERGY SECURITY Inter- not In-dependent Local not global Diversity of sources Renewable (free) Overall renewable sources promise security and sustainability

Mexico and RE

Multiple gains from RE at the border

Wind energy employment

STATE OF ENERGY TODAY Peak oil or peak cheap oil or peak clean oil Petro-dictators in MENA Climate change/greenhouse gases Watergy, foodergy, Uneven binational relations

ALTERNATIVES Threat from Fukushima seen as “indefinite’ with further damage “probable” and costs possibly into the trillions The same week the renewable energy index hit RENIIX an all time high

STATE OF UNION Clean energy standard: 80% by 2035 (Implies supply from friendly sources) President Obama January 2011

BACKDROP In my own view 2010 was probably the greatest year of pain in terms of oil and gas development…all across the world. Interior Secretary Salazar Mexico City, April 4, 2011

CONGRESS “The nation is going to need 40 to 50% more electricity before the end of the decade. We’re not prepared. We need a long-term energy plan.” Congressman Fred Upton Chair, Energy & Commerce

NUMBERS Oil over $110 per barrel Arizona will need: 1 quadrillion BTUs just for transportation by new gigawatts of electricity by 2016 $100 billion for new infrastructure

FEDERAL FRAMEWORK North American Energy Work group Bilateral Framework on Clean Energy and Climate Change North American Carbon Storage Atlas Cross Border Task Force Transboundary reservoir negotiations

OVERALL OBJECTIVE The Merida Initiative and Beyond Merida support a 21 st Century borderlands including strong, resilient communities. Explore need, feasibility, and market for renewable energy development and transborder exchange Now and in 2020, 2050, 2100

VISION 10 giga-watts of new RE 10% (1GW) exchanged 30,000 new jobs

Return on Investment Invest- ment

Return on Investment Invest- ment Profit

Return on Investment Invest- ment ProfitJobs

Return on Investment Invest- ment ProfitJobs Air Qual

Return on Investment Invest- ment ProfitJobs Air Qual GHG GCC

Return on Investment Invest- ment ProfitJobs Air Qual GHG GCC Qual of Life

Return on Investment Invest- ment ProfitJobs Air Qual GHG GCC Qual of Life Water

Return on Investment Invest- ment ProfitJobs Air Qual GHG GCC Qual of Life Water Price Stab’y

Return on Investment Invest- ment ProfitJobs Air Qual GHG GCC Qual of Life Water Price Stab’y Safety

Return on Investment Invest- ment ProfitJobs Air Qual GHG GCC Qual of Life Water Price Stab’y Safety Secur- ity

WHY TRANSBORDER? The region is a common economy with a common market for most products. The region is an indigenous fuel pauper; most is imported. Renewable energy can provide the linkage between the sides of the border and to the future.

JUXTAPOSITION Presidents’ Cross Border Electricity Task Force Top Down VALUE ADDITION Bottom Up WORKshop Transborder Renewable Energy Subnational Actors

ROLE OF SUBNATIONALS Land use/siting Tax incentives for manufacture, jobs, installation, “Sell to grid” Feed in Tariff (FIT) or Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Enterprise Zones

NOW AND NEXT Some doing well (Californias) Some doing OK (ERCOT) Some not doing (Void in AZ/NM-SO) All can do better

HISTORY Energy interdependence has evolved NAFTA accommodated NAEWG facilitated SPP embraced Northern BC, MX is in WECC and electrons flow both ways Why not for renewable energy as well?

PARADYGM We are in emission and transmission transition Recent transmission was built to locate generation in Mexico (energy maquiladora) Connections are built just for RE

PROGRESS State legislative scan Geographic database Price elasticity Survey Workshop Trip to US-Canada border

SURVEY 83% believed RE would be cost competitive within 10 years Clean jobs, economic development, and foreign direct investment Lack of comprehensive policy/plan Benefits of cross border exchange far outweigh costs and disadvantages Wind, PV solar, geothermal

WORKshop PROCESS Five complementary sessions: Decision Science Scenario Planning Tours HomeWORK Plan for a Roadmap

GIS DATABASE Interactive maps

ASU DECISION THEATER Creation of a policy space through application of decision science to complex problems

SCENARIO PLANNING

LONG-TERM VIEW

OUTSIDE THE BOX Mexico exports virtual water when it sends tomatoes north and Arizona exports water when it sends electrons to California from power plants. Even if RE cannot be exchanged is it worth developing since we export virtual energy in the products, services and commerce that we exchange.

BE CREATIVE Imagination is everything!…A Einstein The role of the individual

WIND TUNNEL

ROADMAP Level of governance International and transboundary Federal, constitutional, sovereign Regional Subnational (state, tribes, municipio) Local Private sector, NGO, trade, advocacy Now1 year5 years10 years

REGIONAL POLICY Eneregionalism Regional transmission siting authority Regional RPS and tradeable REC Regional clearinghouse (ASU DT) Regional TEIA Regional enereducation

CANADA INSIGHTS Rocky road to integration Natural north south orientation Potential is not reality Significant investment motivated by GCC and GHG concerns Recognition of huge profits possible by directing excess, cheap RE south Crown corporations make it happen

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