Forum on Mali’s Jotech Chart Analysis By Maliha Yahya Dec 2 nd, 2003

1. Bought at Cut loss at Should have bought near support, and fallen nearly 1/2 4. After 10 months of ‘downward trendlessness’ price spiked 176% from cut loss position RESISTANCE SUPPORT First, I simplify Mali’s chart for better clarity of what we need to learn at this present moment, not clouded by too many data not currently relevant.

1. Bought at Cut loss at Should have bought near support, and fallen nearly 1/2 4. After 10 months of ‘downward trendlessness’ price spiked 176% from cut loss position RESISTANCE SUPPORT Looking back it becomes obvious our earlier mistake. So I cover the later part of the chart to check whether we should have bought during that time, using only Support and Resistance (S&R) lines. We should have graph of earlier years, say 1997 till 2001 to check earlier S&R, and whether current S&R can connect with the earlier S&R. Even then we see the price was moving towards resistance, not until we get more signal that it has strength to breakout from the resistance, it could be wise to wait, irrespective of whether fundamental signals are strong. E.g PE ratio etc.

1. Bought at Cut loss at Should have bought near support, and fallen nearly 1/2 4. After 10 months of ‘downward trendlessness’ price spiked 176% from cut loss position RESISTANCE SUPPORT Again looking back, should we sell at that time? Or, when should we sell or cut loss, after bought at 1.60? Looking at the chart again, with just S&R tool, we could have sold at the level of resistance if we do not get more confirmed signal that it will charge upward. As Mali said, we could have bought some more at the support if we get more confirmed signals that it had more chance of good Support. We mentioned several times about getting better Signals, which we will learn later, more tools to get better signals or confirmation.

Mali’s Lessons Learnt Chose Jotech because of its attractive valuations (low P/E, P/B, P/S, P/CF and high dividend yield) –Comment. Fundamental Analysis P/E. P/B etc give us more assurance of the soundness of the company, that it may not collapse suddenly, but for investing purpose, we still need good timing to buy / sell. Share price fall was mitigated by dividends, but got impatient because dividends are taxed. –Comment. Later we will learn Risk / Reward ratio in totality I.e. inclusive of dividends, bonus and make judgment as to invest or not. When cut loss, should have seen that it is close to historical support low. Should have bought more at lower price! It rallied 239% from yr low of 1.06 to yr high of 3.60! However, recent rally is unsustainable due to speculation. Stock is now expensive. –Comment. We will learn later about how far is the un-sustainability, how much further the price may drop etc. Price has since corrected 15% from 3.60 to Price should correct back 50% to levels before I consider it attractive. –Comment. We will review the above by a) learning more analysis tool, b) the market is still evolving, and later we should test the above statement.