Swedish GAINS activities – Status report March 2009 John Munthe IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd Stefan Åström Mohammed Belhaj Jenny Arnell Maria Lindblad

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, IAM activities at IVL  GAINS Sweden  Potential control strategies in the transport sector  Energy saving potential in the housing sector  Cooperation with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine  Nordic Low Emission Scenarios

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, GAINS Sweden  On-going work to to adapt/modify GAINS to national users and national needs  Hardware, software, database access – on-going development in cooperation with IIASA  Planned activities: - Translation-comparison of emission inventories and projections with national data - Demand side control strategies in the transport sector - Evaluation of national scenarios for bioenergy - Evaluation of new health and ecosystem impact endpoints  NIAM Web site – running but low level maintenance and updating

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, Demand side control strategies in the transport sector  Continued evaluation of effects of: - increased use of biofuels - smaller cars - longer trucks - road taxes, fuel taxes, congestion charges  Potential cooperation with Chalmers Univ of Technology using energy system model MARKAL (including transport sector).

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, Current activities - Demand side control options - the Household & Service sector  The household sector is one of the largest energy consumers in Europe and Sweden  Currently, the household sector use ~40% of its energy to heat buildings  Reduced demand of energy needed for heating & appliances will save energy and reduce emissions of air pollutants as well as greenhouse gases  Data collection and evaluation  GAINS modelling by IIASA

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, Example of results – energy demand in housing sector in Sweden Reduction potential if the current building refurbishing rate is doubled

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, Cooperation with Russia, Belarus, Ukraine  Bilateral cooperation with these countries (and IIASA) to support the implementation of air pollution policies following CLRTAP standards  First stage Russia: –Economic activity inventory, –Emission inventory Leningrad Oblast, –Implementation in the online GAINS model,

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, SCARP – The Swedish Clean Air Research Programme  Research Programme Funded by Swedish Environmental Protection Agency  Programme Director: Peringe Grennfelt  4 sub projects: - Particles – Lead partner: Hans Christen Hansson, ITM - Health – Lead Partner: Göran Pershagen, KI - Ecosystems – Lead Partner IVL - Integrated Assessment Modelling – Lead Partner IVL  Phase 1 ends in 2009  New proposal for Phase

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, SCARP Ecosystems  Focussed on nitrogen dynamics and impacts  Experimental N- additions to forest soils, investigation of impact on ground vegetation species composition, n- accumulation and n-leaching.  Model development and application (MAGIC, ForSAFE, Simple Mass Balance Model).  Main results from Phase 1: -Experimental data for process understanding and model development -Model applications e.g. ForSAFE Veg applied to species composition in nitrogen fertilised forest soils; new concepts for clriticalloads of N; SMBM for national upscaling of risks for N-leaching

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, SCARP Health impacts  Main focus to assess health effects related to short- and long term exposure to ambient air pollution relevant for the Nordic countries. Particular emphasis is put on effects associated with exposure to particles from sources such as road traffic, local wood burning and long range transport  Main results in Phase 1: Transport emissions impacts on lung function, focussed on children; Road dust and wood smoke particles, short term impacts, mechanisms; Cardio-vascular effects of air pollution; cohorts, panels, individuals.

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, SCARP Particles  Main focus is to give significant contributions to the understanding of the behaviour of particles in the atmosphere and the quantification of source-receptor relationships through measurements, data evaluation and modelling.  Main results in phase 1: - Improved understanding of mechanisms for secondary PM formation and parameterisation for modelling. Implementation in EMEP and MATCH models on-going. - Emission inventories for particles.

Swedish GAINS update John Munthe, SCARP phase 2 – IAM plans  Integrate results from particle, health and ecosystem research – new end-points for health and ecosystem impacts  Evaluation of Swedish (and European) scenarios for renewable energy  Evaluation of Swedish (and European) scenarios for transport sector including new control strategies, taxes, fees etc.

Contacts IVL IAM team John Munthe, Stefan Åström, Mohammed Belhaj, Jenny Arnell, Maria Lindblad,