Steps to a Sustainable Baltic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director Baltic University Programme Uppsala University

The Baltic University Programme a network of 180 universities & institutes of higher learning; coordinated by a Secretariat at Uppsala University, Sweden; focuses on sustainable development, environmental protection and democracy;Aim To support the key role that universities play in a democratic, peaceful and sustainable development by: developing university courses participation in projects in cooperation with authorities, municipalities & others.

The Baltic University Programme In Figures - 14 countries in the Baltic Sea Basin universities - 13 regional centres teachers/researchers contributed students yearly

Baltic University Programme’s Network Locations where one or more universities participate

The Baltic University Programme Activity areas - education - research - information - applied projects

The Baltic University Programme courses Environmental Science courses 1. The Baltic Sea Environment 2. Environmental Science 3. English for Environmental Science The Baltic Sea Region courses 1. The Baltic Sea Region – Cultures, Politics, Societies 2. Peoples of the Baltic 3. Regional Development and the Baltic Sea Region Sustainable Development course 1. A Sustainable Baltic Region

The Baltic University Programme courses Water Management courses 1. Sustainable Water Management in Baltic Sea Region 2. The Baltic Waterscape 3. The Use and Management of Water 4. River Basin Management Environmental Management courses 1. Policy Instruments for Environmental Management 2. Cleaner Production & Technologies 3. Product Design & Life Cycle Techniques 4. Environmental Management Systems & Certification Sustainable community development courses 1. The city 2. Building sustainable communities 3. Sustainable Urban Management

New Books from a New Publisher Baltic University Press

Something New Under the Sun John McNeill, 2000 Development 1900 – 2000 global population 4 x global economy 14 x industrial production 40 x energy use 16 x carbon dioxide emissions 17 x sulphur dioxide emissions 13 x ocean fishing catches 35 x number of pigs 9 x forests 0.8 x agricultural fields 2 x blue whale x

The Baltic Sea region development Energy budget6-8 x Fishing in the Baltic Sea4-6 x ? Forest production2-4 x ? Swedish energy budget

Development! From Joachim Spangenberg Sustainable Europe Research Institute

From Wackernagel and Reese authors of the ecolo- gical footprint concept Development!

How much space do we have? - Surface area analysis - footprints a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed - Material flows analysis a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed - Energy flows analysis linked to material flows But in industrial countries this makes a factor of close to ten !

Do we see changes at the turn of the millennium ? Population Growth rate is decreasing since about 1994 Energy flows Globally a steady increase continues Economic expansion Globally a steady increase continues

The problem of coupling or linking Economy is coupled to material flows In industrial economies GDP is coupled to resources flows. However, in the west a significant increase in GDP/resource flow is seen in since 1970s. But this gain is offset by an increased per capita consumption, the so called rebound effect. In addition 98 % of the products in Europe are ending up as waste today. Linear flows dominate.

Resource flow/GDP as CO 2 emissions From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics EU-15 Sweden

How to achieve decoupling ? The service economy We need to de-materialise the economy The recycling society We have to recycle the resources The solar society We have to de-carbonise the energy flows

We will look at four issues 1. Energy 2. Transport 3. Urbanisation 4. Demography

1. ENERGY Current developments - Globally - energy consumption is increasing - Baltic Sea Region – slow increase; during periods constant - Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels - Today we use in the west about 100 energy slaves per person Tendencies for the future : Coal is used less Gas is used more Transport sector consumption is increasing No serious efforts to out-phase fossils

Costs of using fossil fuels Non-renewable resources are used Climate effect, global warming Acidification Eutrophication Air pollution Pollution with heavy metals

The carbon content of the energy From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

Alternative energy developments 1. Housing sector (About 30 % of energy budget) Energy efficient houses more common Biomass in increasing Heat pumps increasing in Sweden Solar panels slowly increasing Value of increased efficiency 19 BSEK in Sweden alone

Alternative energy developments 2. Industry sector (About 30 % of energy budget) Cleaner production approach introduced Large potential for energy savings Certification addresses energy Product policies addresses energy

Energy intensity per sector (E/GDP) - Industry - Transport - Service - Residential From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

Sustainable Development dimensions Environmental Addresses the fundamental dilemma of non- renewable resource use and pollution Social Improved health potential Economic Immense economic loss in present regime

2. TRANSPORT Current developments - Globally – mobility is increasing steeply - Baltic Sea Region – fast increase - Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels - Today we travel on an average 40 km/capita/day Tendencies for the future : - Transport sector consumption is dominated by cars - Up to one car per drivers licence - Tourism increasing - Commuting is increasing No serious efforts to address mobility increase

Mobility developments EU From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on EEA statistics

Mobility costs Non-renewable resource use Infrastructure costs Increased forced mobility Health costs: pollution, accidents Economic costs

Alternative mobility developments 1 Urban and personal transport Decreased mobility – use of ICT Decreased mobility – more efficient urban planning Decreased mobility – shop less far away Improved public transport Increased biking in cities Mobility management initiatives

Alternative mobility developments 2 Technical -Alternative fuels introduced -Energy efficient cars have a large potential -Ecological driving Freight sector -Rail transport increasing -Transport addressed in product policies -Safer ship transport in the Baltic Sea?

Current developments - Cities as classical unhealthy environments less serious - Ecological footprints of cities very large - Globally – urbanisation increasing, now passed 50 % - Baltic Sea Region – urbanisation increasing, passing 90 % - Some mega cities – uneven development Tendencies for the future : - Urbanisation continues - Urban transport problems critical - Air pollution still problematic No serious efforts to address urbanisation 3. URBANISATION

Alternative urban developments 1 Improved personal life -How people want to live – improved housing -Rebuilding slab house areas -Urban integrative planning -Cities for people, not cars

Alternative urban developments 2 Improved urban management -Improved energy management – district heating -Improved traffic planning – safer streets -Improved waste management -Greener cities -The factor five city is possible Rural and urban cooperation -Economic alternatives to agriculture -Making town and rural life attractive

4. DEMOGRAPHY Current developments - Globally – population growth is decreasing - Baltic Sea Region – population growth is levelling off - Population “collapse” in East is decreasing - Population is ageing (LE increases 3 months/year!) Tendencies for the future - Population will stabilise - Public social care in crisis - Public income and social care in crisis No serious efforts to address age challenge

Current developments - Globally – population growth is decreasing - Baltic Sea Region – population growth is levelling off - Population “collapse” in East is decreasing - Population is ageing (LE increases 3 months/year!) Tendencies for the future - Population will stabilise - Public social care in crisis - Public income and social care in crisis No serious efforts to address age challenge Different types of development

Who are the actors ? Actor/ActionReso urces Poli- cies Legal rules Pro- jects Produ ction Practi- calities Life styles global x region x x nation x x municipality x x company x x family x individual x

Frames for practical work 1.Brundtland Commission, 1987 Safeguarding possibilities for future generations 2. Rio Conference, UNCED, 1992 The 40 chapters in Agenda The natural Step Foundation Four systems conditions for sustainable development 4. Eco-design wheel Eight steps to sustainable products and services 5. Alan Atiksson approach The compass, the pyramid 6. Finland’s Future Studies Academy Forecasting, back casting, visioning

Something New Under the Sun, John McNeill, 2000 The long term perspective 1 20th Century priorities - International security and military might - Economic growth - Nationalism - From Totalitarian governance to Democracy

From Wackernagel and Reese authors of the ecolo- gical footprint concept Development!

The long term perspective 2 A crisis to get through? (in line with Johannesburg 2003) - Safeguarding Biological productivity (e.g. in Baltic Sea) - Safeguarding Water - Safeguarding Biodiversity - Decoupling economic growth and material flows

The long term perspective 3 21st Century priorities - Implementing a new energy regime with large consequences for both the transport sector and urban development - A stabilised population - Developing democracy sustainability strategies accepted in society

The Baltic University Urban Forum, BUUF Cooperation to promote sustainable development between cities/towns & universities in the BSR Aim Aim - to develop strategies for sustainable development for cities and towns.Partners: Organising partners: BUP, KTH, UBC 20 cities & towns in 9 countries, 15 universities & 3 NGO’s The Union of Baltic Cities disseminates the results > 100 cities. Balticuniv.uu.se/buuf

Go Regional - Baltic Sea Region!