Claire Wright, Consultant, Lloyd’s MIU Lloyd’s is the registered trademark of the Society incorporated by the Lloyd’s act 1871 by the name of Lloyd’s IMSF Gdansk 29 April 2008 METHODS FOR APPORTIONING CO 2 EMISSIONS FROM SHIPS

OUTLINE Legislative environment Legislative environment Complexities in apportioning shipping emissions Complexities in apportioning shipping emissions Approaches Approaches Trade/Shipping Trade/Shipping Conclusions Conclusions

Most efficient mode of goods transport Facilitated globalised economy Carries 77% of world trade 2-4% global CO 2 emissions mt CO mt CO 2 by 2020? GREEN OR NOT SO GREEN?

WHY THE ATTENTION? Scientific Consensus - Global CO 2 emissions reductions of 50% - Keep CO 2 in atmosphere below 450 ppm - Temperature rise below 2ºC Successor to Kyoto – Negotiations ongoing, decision Aviation and shipping likely to be included What does this mean for shipping? - Aviation – divide flight 50/50 origin/dest?

COMPLEXITY OF SHIPPING Complex trading relationships : 1.8m port to port transits 180,000 port to port links 10,000 country to country links Bunkering Multi-load/discharge Landlocked countries Transhipment Shipping and aviation are not the same: Put in picture of container map Containership Transit Network

APPROACHES Global bunker fuel sales GDP Regional studies of pollution in territorial waters The 50/50 scenario Trade imported/exported by country and mode Tonne miles of trade imported/exported by country and mode Marine bunker sales 2006

REQUIREMENTS What does the selected method need to do? Apportion fairly by country – how defined? Available information – trade by country, commodity? Clear methodology Be repeatable Be compatible with calculations for other transport modes

Country Cargo_Tonnes (millions) Tonne_Miles (millions) % of EU Total TM Belgium5.438,5991% Bulgaria7.583,4560% Cyprus0.621,1840% Germany ,7053% Denmark5.042,0480% Spain ,37314% Finland10.203,7690% France ,39323% United Kingdom ,5546% Greece ,6134% Republic of Ireland3.342,3320% Italy ,67120% Republic of Lithuania4.451,5130% Malta % Netherlands ,88822% Poland % Portugal ,3763% Romania7.844,0340% Republic of Slovenia % Sweden ,1051% Total ,757100% TONNE MILES Seaborne oil trades Port to Port Quantity Route – Suez, Cape Distance Cargo Tonne Miles + Bulgaria & Belgium - Pipelines - Ballast Analysis of Petroleum Exports Source: Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit

CRUDE OIL TONNE MILES Seaborne Export Tonnes Miles from EU-25 Seaborne Import Tonnes Miles to EU-25 Source: Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit

TRADE & SHIPPING Global model. Same methodology to all countries Trade imported/exported to a country by mode Tonne miles of cargo imported/exported by country To calculate emissions associated with trade to a country: Origin/Destination of cargo, country level minimum Transport mode Agreed Distance from country A to country B Route from A to B, e.g. Suez, Cape of Good Hope – could be by commodity Agreed emission factors for mode

WORLD TRADE DATABASE LMIU developed a detailed and consistent database of world merchandise trade broken down by mode – Seaborne Tanker Dry Bulk General Cargo – Overland – Pipeline – Air Value($) and Volume (metric tonnes) UN COMTRADE Database SITC rev3.HS Rev 1: commodities, 245 countries - 20,000 unique trade routes, 3 million records

WHO TO BELIEVE: Importer or Exporter ? Crude Oil Russia to Cyprus Exports Reported by Russia16.8 Million Tonnes Imports Reported by Cyprus131K Tonnes LMIU Observed Crude Tanker Capacity Russia- Cyprus300K DWT Motor Vehicle Parts Germany to Mexico ValueTonnes $ per Tonne Imports Reported by Mexico860,887,0004,360, Exports Reported By Germany517,722,00074,7576,925 Avg Value German M/V Parts to World8,409

WORLD TRADE TONNES

DATA CHALLENGES Trade Data Inaccuracies/incompleteness in trade data: consistency in volumes, importer/exporter reporting differences, gaps in data. Quantity of data – millions of trade data records, 4m ship movements a year. Shipping Data Country level mileage not as accurate as port to port level Ballast Transport routes for landlocked and Suez/Cape trades Pleasure/fishing craft/passenger vessels

CONCLUSION Attention will continue – Vessels reducing emissions, emissions trading and country-level apportionment Attention will continue – Vessels reducing emissions, emissions trading and country-level apportionment Statistics – Accurate global level data is not yet available Statistics – Accurate global level data is not yet available Trade data offers one possible method, but Trade data offers one possible method, but Data consistency, integrity, accuracy Data consistency, integrity, accuracy A standardised method is needed – base for negotiations and policy measures on emissions reduction A standardised method is needed – base for negotiations and policy measures on emissions reduction

WE CAN’T MODEL EVERYTHING… 12 hours in the life of the Pride of Calais:

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