Raising the Bar: Refocused Indicators for U.S. Government Assistance to Pakistan Prepared for: The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) By: Isaac Eagan Senay Goitom Santosh Lamichhane Paige Muegenburg Natalie Olson

Team Members Isaac EaganSantosh Lamichhane Senay Goitom Paige Muegenburg Natalie Olson 2

Executive Summary The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act outlined a new, whole-of-nation approach for U.S. government aid to Pakistan. Clear, focused indicators are needed to measure the effectiveness of this new approach. We propose 23 indicators measuring progress in security, political/economic, and social services assistance. 3

U.S. Government Aid to Pakistan From FY FY2010 U.S. provided ~ $11 billion in aid – $7 billion in civilian aid $4.3 billion in economic and political aid $2.7 billion in social services aid – $4.4 billion in security related aid 4

Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act (EPPA) Signed into law in 2009 Authorizes $7.5 billion in civilian aid from FY2010 – FY2014 – Effectively triples amount of civilian aid 5

U.S. Government Aid to Pakistan 6

The Issue We need to ensure that adequate measures are in place to assess this new strategy in Pakistan. 7

How We Assessed Aid Effectiveness Determined the primary goals of the U.S. government for each aid category. Selected indicators based on the following questions: – How applicable is the indicator to the stated goal? – How quantifiable is the indicator? – Are there existing data, or is it feasible that data could be easily collected? – Is there scholarly evidence to support the effectiveness of the indicator? 8

How We Developed Our Indicators We examined those outlined by: – 2010 Quarterly Progress and Oversight Report on the Civilian Assistance Program in Pakistan – Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) – State Department/USAID’s Standard Foreign Assistance Indicators – Alternate governmental, non-governmental, and academic sources 9

Security-related Goals Disruption of internal extremist activities Increased security along the Afghanistan- Pakistan border Improvements in nuclear weapons containment 10

Security-related Indicators 11 GoalsIndicators Disruption of Internal Extremist Activities Number of Violent Extremist Incidents Extremist Organization Membership Estimates Increased Security along the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Attempted Illegal Crossings Attempted Drug Flow Improvements In Nuclear Weapons Containment ACA Report Card Scores ITDB Incidents

Political Goals Improving Local Governance Capacity Strengthening Electoral Institutions Strengthening Civil Society 12

Political Indicators 13 GoalsIndicators Improving Local Governance Capacity Percentage of Targeted Municipalities that Make Decisions Based on Joint Planning Boards Percentage of Citizens that Express Confidence in LocalGovernment Strengthening Electoral Institutions Political Rights Strengthening Civil Society Number of Civil Society Organizations Receiving U.S.-Assisted Training in Advocacy Civil Society Index

Economic Goals Increasing Performance in Agriculture Sector – 21 percent of Pakistan’s GDP – employs 43 percent of its total labor force – 90 percent of water earmarked for agricultural use (1/3 of which is wasted) Improving Performance in Energy Sector – Loss of industrial productivity due to frequent energy shortfalls and blackouts are estimated to cost $2.5 billion and 400,000 jobs per year – Manufacturing and industrial sectors account for 24 percent of Pakistan's GDP 14

Economic Indicators GoalsIndicators Increasing Performance in Agriculture Sector Adjusted Agricultural Yield Number of Farmers Adopting New Technologies/Management Practices as a Result of U.S. Assistance Number of Additional Hectares under Improved Technologies/Management Practices as a Result of U.S. Assistance. Improving Performance in Energy Sector Additional Megawatt Capacity Constructed/Rehabilitated as a result of U.S. Assistance Cumulative Number of Households with Electricity as a Result of U.S. Assistance. Percent Change in Load Shedding—Cutting off Poweron Certain Lines when Demand Exceeds Supply 15

Social Services Goals Improve Education – Universal access to public, modernized education – Construction and maintenance of libraries and public schools – Increased vocational and technical training for at-risk youth – Increased opportunities for women and girls – Increased female literacy Improve Public Health – Reduce and eliminate major infectious diseases – Reduce maternal mortality and mortality under age five – Provide safe drinking water – Meet family planning needs 16

Social Services Indicators 17 GoalsIndicators Improve Education Girls’ Primary Education Completion Rate Primary Education Net Enrollment Rate Improve Health Immunization Rate Access to Improved Drinking Water Child Mortality Contraceptive Prevalence Rate

Conclusion Limitations – Aid measurement challenges – Availability of information – Lag time in results Clear, focused framework to measure progress 18

Questions? 19

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