The 2010 Election: Three Important Questions? John Curtice Strathclyde University.

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Presentation transcript:

The 2010 Election: Three Important Questions? John Curtice Strathclyde University

Three Questions Are we (still) disengaged? Where stands the Union – and the West Lothian question? What are the implications for the debate about the electoral system?

Trends in Turnout

Trends in Civic Duty

The Loss of Trust

Did Expenses Matter? ConLab Incumbent - Expenses Not Expenses Non-incumbent - Expenses Not Expenses

Scotland Goes Its Own Way

Three Different Results! EnglandE, W & NIUK Con Lab LD Others12228 Con. Maj

Rise and Fall of the Two-Party Vote

Liberal Democrat Seats

The Decline of the Marginal Seat

Tory and Lab Britain Nudge Apart 2005 ResultSwing from Lab to Con Change in LD Vote Con 1 st /Lab 2nd Lab 1 st /Con 2 nd ; Maj. < 10% Lab 1 st /Con 2 nd ; Maj % Lab 1 st /Con 2 nd ; Maj. > 20%

The Anti-Tory Bias ConLab Electorate72,39668,360 Turnout => Voters49,47441,857 Small Majorities6083 Vote in Third Party Seats

How The System Now (Doesnt) Work Con % LeadConLabLDOthers

Three Answers? There is still a problem of voter disengagement – the MPs expenses scandal may have negated the closer election. The West Lothian question is likely to become more pressing – but Scotland will need attention too. Advocates of FPP are at risk of defending a system that no longer works.