Material for assessing monetary policy

Figure 1. GDP for the United States, the euro area and the world Annual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, IMF, US Department of Commerce and the Riksbank

Figure 2. Policy rates in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area Per cent Sources: The Bank of England, the ECB and the Federal Open Market Committee

Figure 3. The difference between interbank rates and government bond rates in 2007 and 2008 (TED spreads) Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

Figure 4. CPI inflation for the United States, the euro area and the world Annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and the IMF Note. The HICP for the euro area.

Fiugre 5. GDP for Sweden Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 6. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 7. House prices and total lending to Swedish households Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Quarterly observations of house prices and monthly observations of lending to households.

Diagram 8. Repo rate Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 9. CPI inflation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

Figure 10. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 11. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 12. Prices of food and oil products Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note. The weight of the respective components in the CPI is given in brackets.

Table 1. Comparison of different measures of inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 13. Actual inflation and households’ expectations of inflation one year ahead Annual percentage change and per cent Source: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 14. All participants’ inflation expectations during 2008, 1, 2 and 5 years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB

Figure 15. Inflation expectations among money market participants during 2008, 1, 2 and 5 years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB

Figure 16. The Riksbank’s inflation forecasts and inflation expectations among money market participants during 2008, 1 year ahead Annual percentage change Sources: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank

Figure 17. The Riksbank’s inflation forecasts and inflation expectations among money market participants during 2008, 2 years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank

Figure 18. Households' expectations for the future Net figures Source: National Institute of Economic Research

Figure 19. New and unfilled job vacancies and redundancy notices Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Source: Swedish Employment Service

Figure 20. Employed, labour force and unemployment Annual percentage change and per cent of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 21. CPI inflation and alternative CPI outcome - excluding shocks from international inflation and productivity growth Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 22. GDP growth and alternative GDP outcome - excluding shocks from international inflation and productivity growth Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 23. CPI, outcome and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 24. Labour productivity, outcome and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 25. Oil price, outcome and forecasts, Brent crude USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

Figure 26. GDP growth, outcome and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 27. Number of employed, outcome and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 28. CPI inflation in 2008, outcome and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 29. GDP growth in 2008, outcome and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 30. Labour productivity in 2008, outcome and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 31. The accuracy of the forecasts for CPI among different forecasters Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank

Figure 32. The accuracy of the forecasts for GDP growth among different forecasters Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.

Figure 33. The accuracy of the forecasts for unemployment among different forecasters Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points Note. See the note to Figure 31 for an explanation of the abbreviations.

Figure 34. The accuracy of the forecasts for CPI among different forecasters in 2008 Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.

Figure 35. The accuracy of the forecasts for unemployment among different forecasters in 2008 Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.

Figure 36. The accuracy of the forecasts for GDP growth among different forecasters in 2008 Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.

Figure 37. Repo rate outcome and implied forward rates in 2006 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 38. Repo rate, outcome and forecasts in 2007 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 39. Repo rate outcome and repo rate forecasts in 2008 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 40. Repo rate and monetary policy expectations in Sweden in February 2008 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 41. Repo rate and monetary policy expectations in Sweden in December 2008 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Table 2. Outcome and forecasts made for different variables 2008 during 2006, 2007 and ) OEC D-19 2) TC W index 18 November 1992 = 100 3) in the business sector 4) NMO refers to the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics. 5) per cent of labour force 6) With effect from MPR 2008:1 the Riksbank publishes forecasts for employment and unemployment in accordance with the EU definition, which refers to the age group years. 7) Statistics for Q were not available when this material was compiled The figure refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR February Sources: National Mediation Office, the OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank