The rise of the Sustainable Culture from the Ashes of the Oil Empire Dr. Susan Krumdieck NZ ESR Conference 2004

A Long Time Ago… Whales started to get scarce and, behold, the ground in Oklahoma spouted forth oil And there was light, and the light grew

And the Oil Empire was born… " supply creates demand " Jean Baptiste Say ( )

And the Law of the Land was

And so the people prospered… Global Annual Hydrocarbon Production Fossil Fuel Water Minerals

And technology could accomplish anything… Everything will be alright, as long as we form a federation and find the infinite energy source Dilithium Crystals

Then some people became concerned

And sometimes when they thought about the future….

It seemed like things were getting out of control “Sometime in the 23rd century...the survivors of war, overpopulation and pollution are living in a great domed city, sealed away from the forgotten world outside, controlled by a powerful computer”

“Without vision the people perish…” “What we see is not the old city being resurrected. It's something new that will be born out of the ashes of the old...."

But nice, smart people were working on answers (J. Rifkin)

We need cheap, plentiful energy We need cheap, plentiful energy Demand is projected to grow by 40% Demand is projected to grow by 40% We need more energy for economic growth We need more energy for economic growth We will require new production We will require new production Clean coal Clean coal But the answers didn’t seem to be answers

And many were troubled… Righteous warnings of impending disaster Righteous warnings of impending disaster Denial – Forward self-projection Denial – Forward self-projection Blame – Find those at fault Blame – Find those at fault Fatalistic Acceptance – Tragedy Fatalistic Acceptance – Tragedy

And they dreamed of the future of the Oil Empire becoming the Hydrogen Economy

Now a new age dawns Unconstrained Supply Constrained Supply Global Annual Hydrocarbon Production Total Hydrocarbons (after Campbell, 2001 model)

Question: How do we have a high quality of life, if there are limited resources?

Continuity Theory + - Quality Economy Technology Sustainable Factors Change Factors Regulation Trade Innovation Performance Impacts Nature Continuity Model

How do we discover continuity?

Sustainable Energy Architecture Form and Function Service within the limits of material budget and requirements of structural robustness Beauty and Expression

Advanced Energy and Material Systems Laboratory Interdisciplinary research effort to develop the theory, models, information, ideas, technology and planning tools for New Zealand to begin the journey toward a Sustainable Civilization.

Research Directives Continuity Theory development and application Continuity Theory development and application Continuity Model development Continuity Model development Strategic Analysis for particular problems and issues Strategic Analysis for particular problems and issues Strategic scenario development Strategic scenario development New Technology opportunity realization New Technology opportunity realization

Continuity Model Sustainability Factors Tony Burton, PhD student

Strategic Analysis Christchurch: Energy analysis for home heating and air pollution – 5 year scenario Christchurch: Energy analysis for home heating and air pollution – 5 year scenario Tristan Wallbank 2002 Tristan Wallbank 2002 Final Year Project Team 2004 Final Year Project Team 2004 PetroChina: Transportation Energy Scenario and Technology Review PetroChina: Transportation Energy Scenario and Technology Review Andre Dantas, T. Burton, E. Wang, S. Minges 2003 Andre Dantas, T. Burton, E. Wang, S. Minges 2003 Transportation and Electric Grid Scenario Transportation and Electric Grid Scenario Final Year Project Team 2004 Final Year Project Team 2004

Energy Architecture Sustainable Energy Constrained Transport Sustainable Energy Constrained TransportChristchurch Silke Leitermann 2003 Silke Leitermann 2003 Michael Saunders, Masters Student 2004 Michael Saunders, Masters Student 2004

Model for a system that balances the renewable energy availability with the requirements of a high quality of life Destination Project