Future Earth: Vision and implementation Royal Irish Academy 17th September 2014 Frans Berkhout

‘Great acceleration’ 01/10/152 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al. 2004

What is Future Earth? A global platform for scientific collaboration Enabling integrated research on grand challenges and transformations to sustainability Strengthening partnerships between researchers, funders and users of research Solutions-oriented, building knowledge needed to accelerate transformations to sustainability Communicating science to society and society to science

4 Future Earth’s Sponsors: The Alliance 01/10/20154

Our objective To build and connect global knowledge to intensify the impact of research and find new ways of accelerating sustainable development

Primary aims Integration of science Co-production of knowledge

Future Earth Research Themes Transformation towards Sustainability Dynamic Planet Global Development 7 And cross-cutting issues: Observing systems, models, theory development, data management, research infrastructures

8 Models of knowledge production The ‘linear’ model of science and society Co-production of knowledge

Evolution of GEC Programmes

GEC Core Projects International scientific networks: ~60,000 scientists WGs and Councils

Key functions of Future Earth and its core projects 01/10/ Convening global science 2. Setting research agendas 4. Coordinating frontier research 5. Communicating research, 2- way 6. Engaging decision- makers 3. Mobilising capacity

Convening global science ecoHealth: 2014 conference

Agenda-setting ecoSERVICES: links between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services

Frontier science PAGES: Past Global Changes

Communicating Science Global Carbon Project: Global Carbon Atlas

Engaging policy Earth System Governance: Global governance for sustainability

Mobilising capacity CLIVAR: Variability and predictability of the ocean- atmosphere system

Inputs to global assessments Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Launched, Apr. 2012, Panama IPBES-1, Jan. 2013, Germany IPBES-2, Dec. 2013, Turkey

Implementing Future Earth Interim ICSU (July 2013-end 2014) A. Completing the architecture B. Advancing Future Earth science C. Engaging stakeholders D. Building awareness E. Securing new resources 01/10/1519

A. Future Earth governance Core Project Other activities Core Project Other activities Core Project

A. Future Earth Governance

Completing the architecture Science Committee: announced June 2013 Interim Engagement Committee: Nov 2013 Engagement Committee: announcement Sept 2014 Future Earth Council: announcement Sept 2014 Executive Secretariat: announcement of 5-node consortium, July 2014 Core project affiliation: transition process working smoothly (transition statement, MOU)

Future Earth Executive Secretariat Global hubs Canada (Montreal) France (Paris) Japan (Tokyo) Sweden (Stockholm) United States (Boulder, CO) Regional hubs (proposed) Latin America Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa 01/10/1523 Operational: January 2015 New secured funding: $6-7M/year

B. Advancing science 2025 vision: Success Factors for Future Earth Publish October 2014 Strategic Research Agenda 2014: Agenda-setting for funders Launch October 2014 Short-term initiatives: Fast track initiatives and cluster activities Announced July 2014

2025 Vision 1. Challenges Inspired and created ground- breaking interdisciplinary science relevant to major global sustainability challenges 2. Outputs Delivered products and services that our societal partners need to achieve these challenges 01/10/ Approaches: Pioneered approaches to co- design and co-produce solutions-oriented science, knowledge and innovation for global sustainable development 4. Capacities Enabled and mobilised capacities to co-produce knowledge, across cultural and social differences, geographies and generations

Strategic Research Agenda Request from IGFA/Belmont Forum of funders (September 2013) Medium term (3-5 year) research priorities for IGFA/Belmont initiatives and national funders Three sets of inputs: a. Consultation with the GEC research community b. Engagement with societal partners c. Assessment of recent and on-going priority- setting processes

SRA 2014 A. Dynamic Planet 1. Observing and attributing change 2. Understanding processes, risks and thresholds 3. Projecting and predicting futures B. Global Development 1. Meeting basic needs and overcoming inequalities 2. Governing sustainable development 3. Managing growth, synergies and trade-offs C. Transformations to sustainability 1. Understanding and evaluating transformations 2. Identifying and promoting sustainable behaviours 3. Transforming development pathways 01/10/1527

Linking our vision to priorities 01/10/1528 Challenges Research Priorities Outputs, Approaches, Capacities

Short-term Initiatives Fast Track Initiatives and Clusters Funding from NSF 10 new initiatives funded (~$100k each) Global nitrogen cycle Biodiversity observation Seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts for Africa ….

E. Securing new resources Commitments towards Executive Secretariat Funding for short-term initiatives Dialogue with development funders (ICSU-led) ISSC T2S programme (ISSC-led) New funding model: Informing Belmont Forum discussions at their October 2014 meeting

Funding landscape 01/10/1531 Type A - Glue money for networking/programming (order M€) Managing/coordinating GEC programs (4 secretariats) Managing/coordinating GEC projects (circa 30 IPOs) Type B - International research consortia (order 10M€) Sustaining research teams across boundaries Type C - National emergent programs (order 100M€) Improving capacity to develop new proactive programs, including interdisciplinary Type D - Blue/grey sky research (order 1000M€) Sustaining disciplinary research Building on the large long-term potential of a new generation of scientists

Engaging with Future Earth Encourage participation in existing GEC projects Creating national Future Earth platforms Partnering with Future Earth 2015 FTI Call (open) Call for new Future Earth Core Projects/Initiatives (early 2015) Inputs to 2017 Strategic Research Agenda 01/10/1532

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Future Earth and IGFA/Belmont initiatives 01/10/1534 Belmont Forum High Impact Collaborative Research Actions (CRAs) IGFA Scientific community Via Funders Via Future Earth