Arizona Rural Transit Needs Study Arizona Department of Transportation Public Transportation Division November 2007

1 Study Purpose Develop regionally based needs and solutions for rural transit service in Arizona: Collect and analyze relevant data Identify national trends Obtain general public, Tribal and key stakeholder input Develop projections for future transit demand Identify and quantify potential solutions Develop final report identifying statewide rural transit needs Intended to provide an objective, analytical basis for establishing Arizona’s long-term direction of rural transit service provision

2 Key Questions Key study questions: Geographic Diversity: What is rural Arizona, what are its characteristics, and how will it evolve in the near future? Elderly and Persons with Disabilities: How will the population of elderly and persons with disabilities change? Title VI Requirements: Where are low-income populations located? Transit Needs and Gaps: How much rural transit demand is currently being met? Where are the unmet needs? Roles and Responsibilities: Which agencies will be responsible for carrying out this plan?

3 Methodology Rural Arizona excludes five shaded urbanized areas: Phoenix Tucson Flagstaff Prescott Yuma Source: ADOT and Cambridge Systematics.

4 Methodology Transit Demand Analysis: Five analytical methods for determining rural transit needs and gaps for the state were considered. Most appropriate methodology for Arizona was the Arkansas Public Transportation Needs Assessment (APTNA) method to define transit service needs for each system and for future systems. Utilized several data sets to produce future demographic trends. Demographics included elderly population (over 60 years of age), low income population, and employment. Demographic data used in report is based on a horizon. The APTNA analysis used a horizon.

5 Geographic Diversity Summary 23.2% of rural Arizona residents are elderly; 9.7% are persons with disabilities; 14.9% are of low-income The elderly population will grow the most rapidly over time

6 Elderly and Persons with Disabilities Summary Elderly population in rural Arizona will grow by 51.3% from 349,000 in 2005 to 527,000 in 2015 Growth will be highest in Pinal County (+152.9%) By 2015, 27.7% of rural Arizona residents will be elderly (up from 23.2% in 2005)

7 Title VI Requirements Summary Low income population in rural Arizona will grow by 27.4% from 223,000 in 2005 to 285,000 in 2015 Growth will be highest in Pinal County (+112.3%)

8 Key Findings Transit Demand: Transit demand in rural Arizona is projected to grow from 7.8 million passenger trips in 2007 to 10.5 million in 2016, an increase of 34% Unmet Need: Estimated year 2007 rural transit ridership: 1.4 million Only 18 percent of estimated demand is currently being met Only 13 percent of demand will be met in 2016 if no additional services are introduced Counties with Most Demand (year 2016): Pinal (2.5 million trips), Mohave (1.3 million), Navajo (1.0 million), Cochise (0.9 million)

9 Transit Needs and Gaps Summary Annual Ridership (in Millions) Ridership Without Additional Service Ridership Demand Strategy to Meet Need 1.4 mil 7.8 mil 10.5 mil Ridership demand in rural Arizona will grow from 7.8 million in 2007 to 10.5 million in Existing services only meet 18% of current need (will decline to 13% in 2016 if no changes are made) Strategy to meet need: ramp up service provision over time to fully meet need in 2016 (ridership from 1.4 mil in 2007 to 10.5 mil in 2016)

10 Strategy to Meet Need No Changes to Existing Service (No-Build Scenario) Strategy to Fully Meet Need in 2016 (Build- Out Scenario) Average Annual Capital Cost, $4,960,000$28,580,000 Average Annual Net Operating Cost, $12,100,000$54,710,000 Average Annual Total Cost, $17,060,000$83,290,000 Comparison of no-build and build-out scenarios: Source: ADOT, CS, and TranSystems. Costs are given in year 2007 dollars.

11 Moving Forward The following vision and goals were established on the basis of data analysis results and stake- holder input: Vision: Rural transit service provision should be expanded significantly through the year 2016 to address the rapidly growing transportation demands and needs of rural residents statewide Goals: #1: Provide services in multiple geographic areas; #2: Address needs of particular market segments; #3: Serve a variety of trip purposes Customers: Key customers for new and expanded services should be elderly persons, persons with disabilities, and persons of low income. There are also substantial unmet needs for general public service Specified agencies should carry out defined roles and responsibilities to ensure further development and improvement of service

12 Roles & Responsibilities Summary AgencyRoles and Responsibilities State - Claim and obligate Federal funds - Develop statewide rural transit capital program - Consider performance-based funding criteria Councils of Government - Oversee detailed service planning and cost estimation - Provide regional funding support - Collect data and coordinate services within region Local and Tribal Governments - Generate support at local level - Actively monitor and plan for demographic changes - Streamline and coordinate service provision Transit Operators - Operate high quality service tailored to rider needs - Monitor service performance on an ongoing basis

13 Summary Conclusions Rural transit plays an important role in Arizona’s transportation system. Further development and improvement of rural transit services is critical to address needs stemming from rapid population growth Given only 18% of rural Arizona’s public transportation needs are being met today, it is clear that significant improvement is necessary: Future Need: Only 13% of transit service need will be met in 2016 if no service changes are mad Strategy to Meet Need: Increase ridership from 1.4 million in 2007 to 10.5 million in 2016 Proposed Build-Out Cost: Average of $83.3 million annually from 2007 to 2016

14 Summary Next Steps Next steps to ensure further development and improvement of service: Add rural public transit service within cities, towns, and Tribal Reservations to assure service needs of the elderly, persons with disabilities, and general public are met Connect rural and urban communities, which represents a growing Arizona need Increase funding at all levels of government to support these services, with cooperation from private & non-profit sectors Establish clearly defined roles and responsibilities between the State, councils of governments, local governments, Tribal Governments, and transit operators

15 Thank you! Matt Carpenter Arizona Department of Transportation (602)