Remarks to the US-Korean Twenty-First Century Council Joseph E. Stiglitz Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics The World Bank.

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Presentation transcript:

Remarks to the US-Korean Twenty-First Century Council Joseph E. Stiglitz Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics The World Bank May 15, 1998

Outline of the Talk 1. What happened in Korea? 2. Why did it happen? 3. What are the most important issues looking forward?

Forecasts for 1998 GDP Growth SOURCE: IMF Reports and Consensus Forecasts

Unemployment Rate SOURCE: Bank of Korea: AAG2 and AAG3; Bloomberg (March 1998)

Key Aspects of the East Asian Crisis 1. Not public sector profligacy, but private sector borrowing. 2. Not overall indebtedness, but the type of borrowing and use of funds. 3.International investors share responsibility.

Public Sector Balances: Latin America versus East Asia

Inflation: Latin America versus East Asia

Total External Debt-Exports Ratio in 1996 Percent

Short-term Debt-Exports Ratio in 1996 Percent

Office Vacancy Rates, 1996 (% of space vacant) SOURCE: JP Morgan Data and Estimates (projected)

Non-Performing Loans (as a % of total loans) Percent

Spreads on Brady Bonds & U.S. High-Yield Bonds

Foreign Currency Debt Ratings Country June 1996 June 1997 March 1998 IndonesiaBBB B KoreaAA- BB+ MalaysiaA+ PhilippinesBBBB+ ThailandAA BBB- Source: Standard and Poor’s

Usable Reserves SOURCE: Bank of Korea NOTE: Data refers to "official usable foreign reserves", which includes forward contracts.

Bankruptcies SOURCE: Bank of Korea

Stock Market and Exchange Rate SOURCE: Bloomberg

Exports SOURCES: Bank of Korea, Bloomberg (April 1998), IMF International Financial Statistics

Monthly Earnings of Regular Employees SOURCE: Bank of Korea

Overnight Interest Rates SOURCE: Bloomberg