NWPCC Planning Process for the 6 th Power Plan and what is provided to DSMTF For discussion purposes only Massoud Jourabchi and Ken Corum April 21, 2010

2 You can read more about the Councils 6 th Plan at

3 Councils long-term modeling work Enduse model, generates monthly forecasts of peak, average, minimum load for each state for Discretionary and lost-op conservation targets selected through the regional portfolio selection process. Conservation targets are modeled into the load forecasting at sector and enduse level

4 Conservation targets 2030

5 What is provided to DSMTF For each BA, for each month starting in 2010 and ending in Two load forecasts at busbar (with and without conservation) and the conservation target. Monthly coincident and non-coincident peaks High and low cost-effective conservation range (discretionary and lost-ops) BA forecasts are created by: Taking state level forecasts for load and conservation (Montana load extrapolated from Western Montana to whole state) Taking BA shares of each state load (based on 2006 sales) Applying the BA shares to the state forecasts Adding the non-coincident loads to peak (base on 2008 hourly loads for each BA)

6 BAs Share state loads (2006)

7 Non-Coincident MW addition

8 Comparison to utility forecasts Comparison of the 6 th Plan load forecasts (non-DSI) with 2009 PNUCC which sums utility forecasts compared prior to conservation showed that: Energy and peak forecasts are close however sum of utility forecasts are higher due to coincidence.

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