1 PROJECTIONS IN COUNTRY THE DUTCH EXPERIENCE UNFCC WORKSHOP ON THE PREPARATION OF NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS BONN 28 FEBR - 2 MARCH 2001 HARRY VREULS

2 Outline of the presentation Existing institutional arrangement Problems related to the 1. and 2. National Communications Problems with the new reporting guidelines

3 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT At the moment One national agreed environmental projection: National Environmental Outlook 5 Responsible is one Planning Agency, National institute of public health and the environment (RIVM)

4 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT (2) The scenario holds input from several national institutes, among others: CPB : economic related models ECN : energy related models RIVM: environmental related models

5 Projections over the years 2. National communication –National environmental outlook 3 –Separate projection for CO2 related to energy use 2. National communication, update –National environmental outlook 4 3. National communication –National environmental outlook 5

6 Problems in National communications 1 and 2, related to projections The use of long term scenarios for 5 year periods The requested and the needed detailed information Reference scenarios

7 Long term scenarios Long time period : 2020 and 2030 Interpolation of 2010 situation and other 5 year periods Short time scenarios (4 year period) available but not the same assumptions as LT scenarios Conclusion we will keep only LT scenario

8 Detailed information, requested and needed Projections to show how a country will go in line with the targets Robust scenarios: how are they working and which (type) of models are used Consistency of models should be shown (more information in 3. National Communication)

9 Reference scenarios Two main scenarios –Global Competition (GC) –European Coordination (EC) The accepted policy scenario is GC No other scenarios are and will be presented in the report

10 New reporting guidelines Reporting on scenarios Long Term Scenario and 5 years period Use and explanation of models Brief explanations and national documentation Summary

11 Reporting on scenarios Scenarios without measures Scenarios with measures * Scenarios with additional measures* Discussion on exact content * included in Dutch communications

12 Long Term scenario

13 LT Scenario and 5 years period LT scenario 2030 or already interpolation 5 years value again interpolation Almost all assumptions over whole period the same (see table 5.1) ST scenarios (4 year) do not fit with LT Usefulness of 5 years value ?

14 Use and explanation of models New guidelines improve the understanding of scenarios Most Dutch models developed for other projections and (re)used for climate change scenario In 3. Communication more elements to explain models will be included

15 Brief explanations and national documentation Brief explanation: scenarios are important, but should be seen as background information Guidelines improve transparency of scenarios and policy impacts Most references will be in Dutch

16 Summary More transparency as more information will be presented Guidelines still hold a lot of interpretation options by countries 5 year data only illustrative In 3. Communication additional information to improve transparency