Meanwhile, Jan 18, 2016 New GOP ‘candidates:’ Romney, L. Graham; Ryan says no. 11 GOP debates scheduled –Aug ’15, Sept ‘15, Oct ‘15, Nov ‘15, Dec ‘15, Jan ‘16 (IA), Feb ‘16 (NH), Feb ‘16 (SC), Feb ‘16 (FL), Mar ’16, Mar ‘16 Dems (May or June ‘15)?

GOP 2016 At some point, with so many candidates, is it irrational to NOT run? How many can fit in a debate?

Dems 2016 Hillary not in IA, NH. Yet. No polls in 1 month

Election of Women Why so much variation –across nations? –across American states?

Election of Women How (much) is Hillary Clinton disadvantaged by gender?

Election of Women Major changes –In US Congress about 19% “big” increase post 1990 –In State legislatures steady gains post 1970 little change in last 10 years frozen at about 23%

Election of Women

Candidate recruitment –In US states, increase in # of candidates tracked w/ increase in # of women elected –Since 1992, pool of candidates has not increased much

Election of Women

Major partisan differences –Since 1990, fewer GOP women elected in states –More Dem women elected 31% of D state legislators women 15% of R state legislators women –Same pattern in US Congress

Election of Women

Regional variation –Women have made major gains in some states New England, WA, West –Highest = 41% in CO & VT; 36% NM, 33% WA –Little representation in many states South – lowest = 13% in LA, SC

Election of Women

Election of Women Questions –Why trends, why flattening in US? –Why partisan differences? –Why regional differences? –What effects of representation?

Election of Women Are voters biased against women candidates? –continued sexism? How do we measure: ‘would you vote for a woman candidate’? Just ask... List experiments

Would you vote a _____ for president? Gallup, 2012 Admitted bias against –black (4%) –women (5%) –Hispanic (7%) –Mormons (18%) –GLBT (30%) –Muslims (40%) –atheists, (43%) Social desirability effects?

Would you vote a woman for president? Gallup / GSS –33% yes late 1940’s –92% yes “if your party...” 2005 –86% yes (party not stated) –again, social desirability effects List experiments (Streb) –gas prices rising –athletes’ salaries –seat belt rules –corporations polluting –a woman as president

Would you vote a woman for president? Are “Americans” ready to elect a female president? Rather than asking “you” ask generically Support drops 60% yes, 2006

Would you vote a woman for president? Surveys: 5% to 10% admit they won’t vote for a woman List experiment results -> 26% expressed anger about a woman serving as president Largest: –South (32%) –30-50 y/o (36%) –high income (29%)

Voting and Women as Candidates Stereotypes: women = honest government Gender as a voting cue in low information elections –Women Dem. candidates do better than men among liberal voters –worse among conservative voters

Election of Women Are there not enough viable women candidates?

Election of Women Major factors –Party recruitment Is this reason for party difference? in US, local parties –lower office route to other nations –Party list placement

Election of Women Major factors –Campaign finance Men and women have different networks Different opportunities for raising money –Women fewer opportunities to raise large sums of money

Election of Women Major factors –quotas in Constitution in Party rules –In Europe, left parties started quotas earlier

Election of Women Single member vs. multi-member districts –WA, AZ.... –Voters more likely to vote for woman if also first have chance to vote for a man? Australian Parliament

Election of Women Why partisan differences? Ideology

Election of Women Cultural factors? –Scandinavia vs. rest of Europe Gender roles different SP, IT than SWE... –New England vs. US South

Election of Women Daniel Elazar’s US Political Culture thesis –Moralistic Government advance society, Scandinavians –Individualistic politics to advance personal economic goals –Traditionalistic hierarchy, authority

Election of Women

Cultural v. Institutional factors –‘Traditional’ political cultures = fewer women in ‘modern’ careers fewer women candidates conservative attitudes about women in workplace, equality less recruitment of women candidates

Gender gap: Obama vs. Clinton, Feb 5, 2008 UT, Clinton +20 CT, Clinton +15 CA, Clinton +14* MA, Clinton +14* NY, Clinton +12* TN, Clinton +11* AZ, Clinton +10* NJ, Clinton +10* NM, Clinton +9* AR, Clinton +8* DE, Clinton +7 GA, Clinton +6 IL, Clinton +6 MO, Clinton +1 AL, tie OK, Obama +1

Clinton, % higher turnout for women in presidential elections w/o HRC 10,000,000 more women voted in 2004, 2008, 2012 than men Women lean Dem in presidential voting since 1992 –unmarried women 70% Obama ‘08

Clinton, latest Dem polls Iowa Clinton 57 Bidden 11 Warren 10 New Hampshire Clinton 56 Warren 15 Sanders 7 National Clinton 62 Warren 12 Bidden 10

General election matchups Clinton +8 vs. Ryan (not running) Clinton +9 vs. J. Bush Clinton +10 vs. Christie Clinton +11 vs. Rubio (old) Clinton +12 vs. Paul Clinton +13 vs. Huckabee Clinton +15 vs. Cruz

General Election Polls ‘16 Clinton 56% Huckabee 39% Clinton 52% Cruz 36% Clinton 51% Paul 39% Clinton 49% Christie 39% Clinton 49% Bush 40% Clinton 49% Rubio 37% June ’14 Clinton 51% Romney 45% (Nov ’12)