Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies Jackie Fenn

The Hype Cycle of Innovation Innovation Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Expectations Time Positive Hype Negative Hype

Components of the Hype Cycle Expectations Time Positive Hype Negative Hype

It's Everywhere… Technologies Source: Unilever

It's Everywhere… Management Trends Source: Gartner research using Factiva

It's Everywhere… Stock Prices Source: Gartner and Yahoo! Inc.

It's Everywhere… Macroeconomics Source: IBM

Hype Cycle Traps Time Slope of Enlightenment Trough of Disillusionment Peak of Inflated Expectations Innovation Trigger Plateau of Productivity Expectations Adopting too early Hanging on too long Giving up too soon Adopting too late

Hype Cycle Opportunities Time Slope of Enlightenment Trough of Disillusionment Peak of Inflated Expectations Innovation Trigger Plateau of Productivity Expectations Getting the jump on competitors Optimizing supplier relationships Finding your angle Acquiring talent Maximizing publicity value Banking your experience Planning your purchases Leading the mainstream wave Leveraging lower costs and risks Expanding a niche Imagining the implications

“The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson Photo: Midnightzulu

The Gartner Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies 2009 Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau As of July 2009 Human Augmentation 3-D Flat-Panel Displays Mobile Robots Surface Computers 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Internet TV Social Software Suites Microblogging Green IT Video Telepresence Home Health Monitoring Public Virtual Worlds RFID (Case/Pallet) Web 2.0 Idea Management Electronic Paper Wikis Corporate Blogging Location-Aware Applications SOA Speech Recognition Quantum Computing Video Search Behavioral Economics Wireless Power Mesh Networks: Sensor Online Video Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets Social Network Analysis Tablet PC Context Delivery Architecture

Reaching the plateau Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau As of July 2009 Location-Aware Applications SOA Speech Recognition Source Volvo WirelessCar

On the slope Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau As of July 2009 Electronic Paper Wikis Corporate Blogging Tablet PC Image: Image:toughbook.eu/ENG/press Image: Gartner

Turning out of the trough Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau As of July 2009 RFID (Case/Pallet) Web 2.0 Idea Management Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets Social Network Analysis Credit: IBM Hursley D. Shaw Image: nokia.com/press Image: Gartner Images:Courtesy Intermec Technologies

In the trough Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau As of July 2009 Home Health Monitoring Public Virtual Worlds Online Video Image: newscenter.philips.com Image: Gartner

Past the peak Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau As of July 2009 Microblogging Green IT Video Telepresence Mesh Networks: Sensor Image: Cisco.com.fr/press Image: voltreepower.com/presentations Social Software Suites

At the peak Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Speech Recognition

Rising to the peak Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Internet TV Location-Aware Applications SOA Speech Recognition Wireless Power Image: witricity.com Image: zcorp.com Image: myvu.com/press

Images: microsoft.com/presspass Rising from the trigger Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau As of July 2009 Corporate Blogging SOA Human Augmentation 3-D Flat-Panel Displays Mobile Robots Quantum Computing Video Search Behavioral Economics Context Delivery Architecture Image: jvc-victor.co.jp/english/press Image:eyeborg.com/presskit Surface Computers Images: irobot.com/press Image: Gartner

The Gartner Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies 2009 Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time expectations Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsmore than 10 years obsolete before plateau As of July 2009 Human Augmentation 3-D Flat-Panel Displays Mobile Robots Surface Computers 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Internet TV Social Software Suites Microblogging Green IT Video Telepresence Home Health Monitoring Public Virtual Worlds RFID (Case/Pallet) Web 2.0 Idea Management Electronic Paper Wikis Corporate Blogging Location-Aware Applications SOA Speech Recognition Quantum Computing Video Search Behavioral Economics Wireless Power Mesh Networks: Sensor Online Video Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets Social Network Analysis Tablet PC Context Delivery Architecture

The Hype Cycle of Innovation: Key Questions Expectations Time What's here that we're not using? Was that a deliberate decision? What's here that we could be using?

"The task is not so much to see what no one yet has seen, but to think what nobody yet has thought about that which everybody sees." Arthur Schopenhauer,

Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. Emerging Trends and Technologies Scenario: Technology Radar Screen