NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Perspectives of clean coal technologies in Poland Wojciech Suwala AGH-University of Science and Technology Faculty of Fuels and Energy

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Presentation plan Basic facts on Polish energy system Model of power generation Power generation technologies Decomposition of CO 2 emissions reduction Conclusions

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Basic facts on Polish energy system 70% of TPES from coal 94% of electricity and heat generated form hard coal and lignite

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Basic facts on Polish energy system - challenges LCP directive - derogations EU accession treaty – country limits ETS –280 Mt CO2 required –208 Mt CO2 assigned Renewables obligation

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Model of power generation - 1 Bottom-up model Emissions constraints (SO 2, NOx, PM) Carbon tax to mitigate CO 2 emissions 100 coal grades Variable demands

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Model of power generation -2 Partial equilibrium Objective function: consumers + producers surplus  MAX Time horizon: Linear programming GAMS/CPLEX

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Model of power generation scenarios 1 SO 2, NOx, PM emissions reduction as in EU Accession Treaty for the whole country (bubble)

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Model of power generation scenarios 2 Renewables obligation: 9% of electricity production from 2010 CO 2 - carbon tax: €/t

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Results technologies mix, carbon tax 0 €/t CO 2

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Results technologies mix, carbon tax 25 €/t CO 2

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Results technologies mix, 2020

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Results technologies mix, 2020

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO 2

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO 2 Existing hard coal CHP public plants - life extension 47%

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO 2 New nuclear 15%

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO 2 3% 5% 8% 9% 7%

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Results CO 2 emissions for carbon tax 0 – 30 €/t CO 2

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Decomposition principle Shapley/Sun method X1 X2 ΔX1 ΔX2 X1 0 X2 0 Z=X1*X2 Δ Z(X1)= ΔX1*X2 0 +1/2* ΔX1* ΔX2 Δ Z(X2)= ΔX2*X1 0 +1/2* ΔX1* ΔX2

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Decomposition identity

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Decomposition identity process factor – related to: physical / chemical properties of the technologies fuel quality adjustment

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Decomposition identity fuel factor – related to emissions properties of fuels used

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Decomposition identity efficiency factor – related to amount of primary energy used to satisfy demand

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Decomposition identity demand factor

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Emissions decomposition effect = Δ factor

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July CO 2 emissions reduction – effects contribution carbon tax 10 €/t CO 2

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July CO 2 emissions reduction – effects contribution carbon tax 25 €/t CO 2

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July CO 2 emissions reduction – effects contribution carbon tax 30 €/t CO 2

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Conclusions 1/2 Coal technologies should have still a large share in energy supply for Poland Traditional coal technologies need to be replaced by clean coal technologies Increase of demand could be balanced by renewable and nuclear energy

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Conclusions 2/2 Major factors which in longer term contribute to CO 2 emissions reduction are fuels switch and efficiency increase, the latter enhances the role of clean coal technologies Demand decreases contribute to emissions reduction basically in short term

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Thank you for your attention

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Reversed demand curve QRQ PR P PR – Reference price equal for all years QR – Reference demand - forecasts

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July Unit cost of energy €/PJ