1 IPCC Achieving sustainable development R.K. Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI ECOSOC Keynote Address on the theme “achieving sustainable development” New York, 30 June 2008 IPCC

2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

3 IPCC The work of the IPCC is guided by the mandate given to it by its parent organisations: the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio- economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation

4 IPCC Writing and review process of the IPCC assessment reports 1.Experts review the first draft of the report 2.Governments and experts review the second draft of the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers 3.Governments review word-by-word the revised draft Summary for Policymakers

5 IPCC scientific expert reviewers 800 contributing authors 450 lead authors +130 countries The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

6 IPCC Economic and social aspects of climate change

7 IPCC Ranges for estimated aggregate costs of climate change impacts Variation between studies are explained by uncertainties in climate sensitivity, discount rates, valuation of impacts, etc. Aggregate estimates mask significant differences in impacts across sectors and regions US$-10 to US$+350 per ton of carbon 1.5 to 20% of GDP for doubling of CO 2 concentration  Real social cost of carbon will rise by 2 to 4% per year Aggregate estimates are confronted to the difficulty to monetise human, social, cultural & environmental impacts

8 IPCC Examples of climate change impacts These expressions of risk are determined fundamentally by location in time and space 1.1 to 3.2 billion people will experience increased water scarcity by % of species could be at risk of extinction if increases in warming > °C Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

9 IPCC Distribution of vulnerability 9 Severe vulnerability 7 Moderate 6 Moderate 5 Modest 4 Modest 3 Little 2 Little No data Year Extreme 9 Severe 8 Serious 7 Moderate 6 Moderate 5 Modest No data Year 2100

10 IPCC The urgent need for mitigation

11 IPCC Mitigation targets 3.2 – – – – 2.4 Global mean temp. increase (ºC) 2020 – – – – – – – – 490 Year CO 2 needs to peak Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq)

12 IPCC Mitigation actions can result co-benefits that may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs Global average costs for stringent mitigation would induce a slowing of global GDP growth of less than 0.12 points Due to the inertia of both climate and socio-economic systems, mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon- intensive technologies Cost & timing of mitigation

13 IPCC All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development and diffusion 60-80% of GHG reductions would come from energy supply & use and industrial processes Mitigation potential IPCC

14 IPCC Investment needs in energy supply Significantly de-carbonizing power production would require incremental investments of up to $40 billion/year globally; $30 billion/year in non-OECD countries 1 This would be offset by reduced investment requirements resulting from improved end-use energy efficiency A global increased investment of US$2.4 trillion in improved efficiency would be more than offset by US$3 trillion savings in supply investments 2 IPCC Sources: IPCC AR4 citing 1) WB, ) IEA, 2006

15 IPCC Perspectives on sustainable development

16 IPCC Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of sustainable development share common goals & determinants:  Access to resources and equity  Stocks of human and social capital  Access to risk-sharing mechanisms  Institutional capacity Social and environmental issues are often left without effective support when economic growth takes precedence Appropriate policies are key factors for improved sustainability & adaptive capacity Development & adaptation

17 IPCC Development & mitigation The dominant path to industrialisation has been characterised by high concurrent GHG emissions and pressure on natural resources Committing to alternative development paths requires major changes in a wide range of areas:  Economic structure  Geographical distribution of activities  Consumption patterns  Demography IPCC

18 IPCC Towards a new system of governance There is increasing recognition of a shift to a more inclusive concept of governance, including: Involvement of the relevant parties and policy coherence are essential to achieve the desired goals and ensure sustainability  Linking and coherence between policies addressing climate change, economic development, health, employment, energy security, and local environment  The cooperation of various levels of government, the private sector and civil society IPCC

19 IPCC Lighting a Billion Lives Campaign

20 IPCC 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity 33% live in India We commit to enable a billion lives to access light from solar technologies

21 IPCC Solar lantern Each solar lantern:  Saves about litres of kerosene per year  Mitigates 145 kg of CO 2 emissions per year Alternately:  Saves about kWhr of electricity per year  Mitigates 157 kg of CO 2 emissions per year

22 IPCC Gobindarampur: a village benefiting from the campaign Solar lanterns are used in livelihood activities such as betel leaf cultivation, coaching centres, and shops Bani and her friends run and maintain the charging station Solar lanterns have helped families in their daily activities

23 IPCC Gandhi was once asked if he expected India to attain the same standard of living as Britain. He replied: It took Britain half the resources of the planet to achieve this prosperity. How many planets will a country like India require!