The Core Questions, Working Group member roles, responsibilities and contributions for the Scientific Synthesis Group Laurence Mee Director: Scottish Association for Marine Science

I. Expectations Science inputs and the TDA/SAP process

Why do we need international waters assessments? Interventions have frequently failed to fully identify the impacts (environmental, socioeconomic) and temporal and geographical boundaries of the problem and its causes (scaling & scoping). The boundaries of the area where the problem itself is observed may not encompass the location of the cause.

THE TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS (TDA)  Is recommended for most IW projects  Is a scientific and technical fact-finding analysis  It should be an objective assessment and not a negotiated document  It acts as a diagnostic tool for measuring the effectiveness of SAP implementation

STRATEGIC ACTION PROGRAMME (SAP)  A SAP is a negotiated policy document  It establishes clear priorities for action to resolve the priority transboundary waters problems  It identifies policy, legal and institutional reforms and investments needed to address the priority transboundary waters problems  The preparation of a SAP is a cooperative process among key stakeholders in the countries of the region.

WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENCES & COMPLEMENTARITIES BETWEEN THE TDA AND THE SAP?  THE TDA IDENTIFIES: THE PRIORITY PROBLEMS ENV & SE IMPACTS UNDERLYING SECTORAL AND ROOT CAUSES ANALYSIS OF GOVERNANCE  BASED ON A REASONED AND MULTI-SECTORAL CONSIDERATION OF THE PROBLEMS  THE FACTUAL BASIS FOR THE FORMULATION OF A SAP  OUTLINES THE POLICY, LEGAL, AND INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS AND INVESTMENTS NEEDED TO RESOLVE THE PRIORITY TB PROBLEMS  MUST BE AGREED BEFORE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, CAPACITY- BUILDING, OR INVESTMENT PROJECTS CAN BE DEVELOPED  THE SAP SETS OUT SPECIFIC ACTIONS FOR EACH COUNTRY THAT CAN BE ADOPTED NATIONALLY BUT HARMONISED WITH THE OTHER CONCERNED COUNTRIES THE TDATHE SAP

THREE SOURCES OF GEF FUNDING May cover:  Prep of project concept paper & pdf- b proposal  Consultation with governments  Initial stakeholder identification  An assessment of feasibility of the proposed activity May cover:  Information gathering, consultation and supporting documentation to prepare full project proposals  Stakeholder involvement and M&E Plans  Establishment and initiation of TDA/SAP mechanisms  Awarded in accordance with GEF Guidelines (OS, OP, SPs) and the relevant Convention Requisite:  Submission & approval of a full project concept paper;  A project brief for presentation of the project proposal to GEF Council PDF – A Funding PDF – B Funding Full Project Funding

PDF-A fundingPDF-B fundingFull Project funding Early stage programme support Project identification Initial stakeholder consultations TDA/SAP development Full Project proposal development Implementation of SAP SCENARIOS OF THE GEF FUNDING PROCESS Projects with a smaller number of participating countries

PDF-A fundingPDF-B fundingFull Project funding (I) Full Project funding (II) Early stage programme support Project identification Initial stakeholder consultations Initial TDA development Preliminary SAP Full Project proposal development TDA completion SAP development Demonstration projects Implementation of SAP SCENARIOS OF THE GEF FUNDING PROCESS Projects with a larger number of participating countries

Full stakeholder participation Underlying principles incorporated into the TDA/SAP process Joint fact-finding (inc. social and economic root causes) Transparency The ecosystem approach Adaptive management

The Ecosystem Approach A resource planning and management approach that recognizes the connections between land, air, water and all living things, including people, their activities and institutions. Definition from the Ministry of Natural Resources, Canada

Key components of the ecosystem approach Management objectives as societal choice Management decentralised and multi-sectoral Appropriate temporal and spatial scale Conservation of ecosystem function and resilience Appropriate balance between conservation and use Management within system limits The outward vision (respect interconnectedness) and long-term vision (change is inevitable) Broad use of knowledge, scientific and traditional Incorporation of economic considerations (costs and benefits, removal of externalities, etc.) Source: CBD Malawi guidelines

Policy RESPONSE options Environ- mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change Socio- economic DRIVERS Environ- mental PRESSURES Social system Ecological system A framework for understanding - DPSWR

Policy RESPONSE options Environ- mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change Socio- economic DRIVERS Environ- mental PRESSURES Social system Ecological system DPSWR - Where are the impacts? IMPACTS

Policy RESPONSE options Environ- mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change Socio- economic DRIVERS Environ- mental PRESSURES Human climate change Natural system variability External factors DPSWR - External factors

Communication to stakeholders must be understandable

Connecting, values, visions and planning Work with the community to identify key stakeholders Stakeholders select representatives Joint fact-finding (supported by science) Community agreement on a vision for the future Brainstorming the first steps for getting there

Adaptive management Positive thinking for an uncertain future

ASSESSMENT

SETTING THE VISION

DEFINING THE FIRST STEP

NECESSARY INDICATORS

MONITORING IS ESSENTIAL

COMPLIANCE AND FEEDBACK

PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VISION

International Waters Task Force Key Indicators Process indicators 2. Stress reduction indicators 3. Environmental status indicators.

Systems thinking: A method of rational inquiry Understanding of how human activities can impact marine environment Models for systems analysis Conceptual models describing pathways of socio-economic drivers and pressures Sensitivity of system to proposed policy options and socio-economic changes Information about relevant attributes of the system Metadata Requirements Data and narrative Validation Leads to improvements in Scenarios Helps devise

PART 2 OVERVIEW OF THE 5 PHASES OF THE TDA/SAP PROCESS

Full stakeholder participation Underlying principles incorporated into the TDA/SAP process Joint fact-finding (inc. social and economic root causes) Transparency The ecosystem approach Adaptive management Accountability Inter-sectoral policy building Stepwise consensus building Subsidiarity Incremental costs Donor partnerships Government commitment

1. Project development Preliminary project request Identification and consultation with the stakeholder groups 3. Development of the TDA Identification and initial prioritisation of transboundary problems Analysis of impacts/ consequences transboundary problems Production and submission of complete draft TDA TDA Preparation Causal chain analysis and governance analysis Final prioritisation of transboundary problems 4. Formulating the SAP Bridging the TDA and SAP and developing long-term EcoQOs Brainstorming ways to attain the EcoQOs Examination of and political consultation on alternative options Development of targets and indicators Drafting the NAPs and SAP Planning the remaining steps of the SAP and appointing SAP and NAP formulation teams 2. Planning the TDA/SAP Design work plan for the TDA/SAP implementation phase including budgets Detailed stakeholder analysis and draft public involvement plan Identification of the technical task team (TTT) Preparation of a draft concept paper Project approval by the GEF CEO Appointment of Project Manager Appointment of Facilitator Form Interministry Committees Form Steering committee Set up the TDA Technical Task Team (TTT) 5. SAP implementation Adoption of the SAP: The Ministerial Conference Preparation of Full Project brief Conducting a Donors Conference Development of relevant interventions by GEF and/or other donors Agreement on the institutional framework TDA adopted by steering committee

4. FORMULATING THE SAP  The Strategic Action Programme is a process of reaching political consensus on the policy and legal reforms, investments and capacity building requirements needed to address the key issues identified in the TDA.  It requires the best possible technical advice and is based on the principle of collaborative problem solving

Underlying principle of negotiation: Collaborative problem solving Seeking compromise When there may be no win-win solution.

Dewey’s ‘rules of logic’ (1930) 1. Define the problem in terms of needs, not solutions 2. Brainstorm possible solutions 3. Select the solutions that will best meet both parties’ needs and check possible consequences 4. Plan who will do what, where and when 5. Implement the plan 6. Evaluate the problem-solving process and, at a later date, how well the solution turned out.

STEPS FOR DEVELOPING THE SAP  Develop a long term vision for the region  Brainstorm ways to attain the Eco/WR QOs  Assess the acceptability of the options, including: technical feasibility, as well as economic and political  Set short-term targets and priority actions  Develop M & E indicators  Draft the SAP

Building a national and regional consensus on the SAP

“Wicked” and “Tame” Problems “Tame” problem can be solved by careful rules-based or consensus management “Wicked” problem involves moral judgements and value- based decisions: governance. Clear solutions no clear solution; there will be winners and losers First order “fixes” Hard choices Jentoft and Chuenpagdee (2009) Fisheries and coastal governance as a wicked problem

Mee, Eberhard and Dublin, Global Environmental Change, 2008 A GEF intervention that goes well

Mee, Eberhard and Dublin, Global Environmental Change, 2008 … and not so well.

Temporal issues

III. Core Questions

Critical emerging science issues ( 5 Core Questions) 1.What are the critical science challenges “on the horizon” specific to each ecosystem type? 2.What is the significance of regional and global-scale drivers, in particular climate change, in the genesis of transboundary problems? 3.Describe how understanding and managing multiple causality in a transboundary water context is undertaken?

3.How are variable spatial and temporal scales in IW projects accounted for? 4.What approaches were used to understand/assess the coupling of social and ecological systems?

Development and use of indicators to support IW projects ( 3 Core Questions) 1.How did the projects help build and implement sound indicators and monitoring strategies to support SAP implementation and/or ultimately assess the achievement of environmental and social benefits? 2.How can we identify effective proxy indicators for use in IW projects? 3.How to make better use of appropriate science and best practices for Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis? Note that there may be a need for a comparative analysis of current GEF IW indicators and those used by the DPSWR framework.

Application of science for adaptive management - (5 Core Questions) 1.Was engagement of both local and wider science communities utilised in IW projects? If not, how can improvements be made? 2.Is scientific expertise and local knowledge well applied within the IW focal area, particularly in accessing existing baseline information, new findings on methodologies, science breakthroughs and scanning for emerging issues?

3.Identify lessons learned for linking science and policy implementation, including policy formulation and broader governance issues 4.Is adaptive management happening? How to better understand and effectively communicate the scientific dimensions of adaptive management to different user groups? 5.How to better communicate newly-synthesized science knowledge to stakeholders within and external to GEF?

Reflections and discussion