1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund May 2009

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May World Economic Outlook: Key Messages  Financial markets remain highly stressed.  The world economy will contract in 2009 by around 1¼ percent before recovering gradually in  Emerging economies face dramatic drops in capital inflows, demand for their exports, and commodity prices.  A third wave of the global financial crisis is hitting the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries.  Turning around global growth depends critically on concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions, as well as sustained strong policy support to bolster demand.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May The global economy is set to contract in 2009 and to recover only gradually in World Advanced Economies United States Euro Area Japan Emerging and Developing Economies China India Russia Real GDP Growth (In percent)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May MENAP Countries Oil Exporters (12) Oil Importers (10)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May  Most oil exporters are maintaining high levels of capital spending.  Declining asset prices and slowing economies are putting some strain on corporate and bank balance sheets. Oil Exporters: Key Messages

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May The collapse in oil prices has caused a drop in exports and government revenue. Crude Oil Price (APSP, In U.S. dollars per barrel) Exports and Revenue

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May (In billions of U.S. dollars) Governments are continuing to spend, and imports remain high.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May (In percent of GDP) External and fiscal balances are deteriorating... Current Account BalanceOverall Fiscal Balance

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May … but contributing to global demand. Imports (In percent of world imports)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Despite monetary easing, credit to the private sector has declined. Interest Rates (In percent) Private Sector Credit Growth (Percent change)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Asset values have fallen and... Change in Stock Market Indices (Jan 01, 2008 – Apr 30, 2009, in percent) Real Estate Price Index (March 2008=100)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Credit Default Swap Spreads (In basis points; Aug 1, 2008 – Apr 29, 2009)... some financial sector indicators have worsened. Corporate Profits (Q over Q4 2007)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Growth has slowed sharply, especially in the oil sector, but inflation has come down. Growth and Inflation, (In percent) 1/ Excludes Sudan.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Non-oil growth in the GCC is holding up. Real GDP Growth (Annual percent change, 2009)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Risks to the Outlook  Prolonged global recession  Further deterioration in balance sheets of financial institutions but  Economic fundamentals remain strong  Reserves remain large

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Policy Priorities  Maintain public expenditure subject to fiscal sustainability.  In countries with more limited fiscal space, prioritize expenditure.  Keep a close eye on the banking system.  Press ahead with structural reforms.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May  Growth is slowing, and financial sectors are showing some signs of vulnerability.  Protected by oil exporters’ continued spending, the impact on growth has, so far, been moderate.  But a prolonged recession in partner countries could have a significant impact on growth, and unemployment and poverty could rise substantially. Oil Importers: Key Messages

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May In line with lower growth in major trading partners, foreign inflows are weakening. Real GDP Growth (In percent) Foreign Inflows (In billions of U.S. dollars)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Current Account Balance (In percent of GDP) But current account deficits are projected to decline somewhat.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May There is limited fiscal space for countercyclical spending. Fiscal Accounts (In percent of GDP)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Financial indicators are weakening but, so far, are manageable. Change in Stock Market Indices (Jan 1, 2008 – Apr 30, 2009) Sovereign Bond Spreads (In basis points, Jan 1, 2008 – Apr 30, 2009)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Growth has fallen, but inflation has also come down. Real GDP Growth (In percent) Consumer Price Inflation (Average; annual changes in percent)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Unemployment is already high, and economic slowdown is likely to raise it further. Jobs Needed to Maintain 2008 Unemployment Rate (In millions) Unemployment Rate (In percent)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Risks to the Outlook  Prolonged recession in trading partners and  Reduced availability of external financing could lead to...  Worse outcomes on growth and employment  Weaker corporate and bank balance sheets

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Policy Priorities  Quickly make use of limited scope for countercyclical policy.  Protect vulnerable groups.  Press ahead with growth-enhancing reforms.

26 Thank you