Modeling Updates CRFS—Technical Meeting November 14, 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

Modeling Updates CRFS—Technical Meeting November 14, 2012

Forecasting and Modeling Updates 24-Month Study –Recent Enhancements (implemented May 2012) –Potential Enhancements Mid-Term (Probabilistic) Operations Model (MTOM) 2

Recent Enhancements (implemented May 2012) 3

24-Month Study Recent Enhancements No changes to methods or modeling assumptions No changes to model results Purpose of enhancements –“Clean Up” Model Workspace –Improve Transparency, Consistency, Efficiency 4

24-Month Study Recent Enhancements “Clean Up” Model Workspace –Remove unused data objects –Remove “unused” and misleadingly named reach object Improve transparency of model –Rename objects to more intuitive and descriptive names Make 24-Month Study and MTOM more consistent –Yearly data slots vs repetitive monthly data slots Added efficiencies to process –Ruleset in “reverse” priority order –Added Lower Basin Surplus rules 5

Potential Enhancements 6

24-Month Study Potential Enhancements Lees Ferry Intervening flows –Changes to reporting –Changes to model configuration to support reporting No changes to methods or modeling assumptions No changes to model results Purpose of enhancements –More accurately project future flow at Lees Ferry streamgage –Fix “double reporting” of historic flows between Glen Canyon Dam and Lees Ferry streamgage –Improve transparency and consistency 7

24-Month Study Report Lake Powell Page Lees Ferry Column Current: Future Flow = GCD release Potential Change: Future flow = GCD release + 5-yr avg of intervening flow 8

Side Inflow Column Current: Side Inflow = 5-yr avg of (side inflows above Lees Ferry + side inflows below Lees Ferry) Potential Change: Side Inflow = 5-yr avg of side inflows below Lees Ferry 24-Month Study Report Lake Mead Page 9

Add additional Reach to PowellToMead Aggregate Reach Separates out flows Sum of reaches remains the same Modify Data Management Interfaces (DMIs) move data from model to report 24-Month Study Model Configuration “Mock up” of potential change to model 10

24-Month Study Potential Enhancements Lees Ferry Intervening flows –Changes to reporting –Changes to model configuration to support reporting No changes to methods or modeling assumptions No changes to model results Potential Implementation: Jan/Feb

Questions? 12