Nuclear Arsenals. Status of World Nuclear Forces, 2015.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The Future of Nuclear Weapons More proliferation or further reductions? Keith Hansen February 19, 2015.
Advertisements

Nuclear Disarmament and Arms Control SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks)
April 6, NPR in Context Third comprehensive review of U.S. nuclear policies and posture –Previous reviews in 1994 and 2001 Conducted by DoD.
Challenge of Nuclear Weapons
Bulletin of atomic scientists
 The concept of mutual deterrence or mutually assured destruction assumed that both sides had sufficient weapons with enough security that they could.
BELLWORK 1.In your opinion, what were the TWO main developments of the arms race? 2.Why was the arms race so intense during the Cold War? What fueled this.
START Follow-on Update November 30, 2009 Steven Pifer Center on the United States and Europe Foreign Policy Studies The Brookings Institution
13 January 2005 Slide 1 National Defense University – Institute for National Strategic Studies China’s Strategic Force Modernization Dr. Phillip Saunders.
 Nuclear Deterrence during the Cold War.  As a result of the Manhattan project American scientist learned to create nuclear fission explosion splitting.
Lesson – Disarmament.  Review goals of NPT treaty.  Compare different types of weapons.  Identify key treaties regulating nuclear arsenals.
Monitoring the INF and START Treaties American Physical Society November 2, 2013 Dr. Edward Ifft.
Do Now 1) What was one of the causes of the Cold War? 2) What do you think the United States might do to stop the spread of communism?
Nuclear Treaties Dennis Silverman, U C Irvine Source:
Nuclear Arsenals Dennis Silverman, U C Irvine Source: Energy and Problems of a Technical Society, by Jack J. Kraushaar and Robert A. Ristinen.
Pearson Education, Inc. © 2006 CHAPTER 6 Military Force INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Seventh Edition Joshua S. Goldstein.
Maintain international peace and security Maintain economic and social cooperation Intended to either prevent wars, or make wars obsolete.
HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE THE BOMB (AND THE ARMS RACE, AND THE ALLIANCE SYSTEM) ACTUALLY, YOU SHOULD JUST CALL THESE NOTES “THE ARMS RACE.”
April 5, The President’s Nuclear Security Agenda First articulated in Prague in April 2009 –Reduce nuclear dangers and pursue the long-term goal.
Nuclear Weapons By: Adebayo Amusu Foreign Policy.
Future nuclear weapon policies James M. Acton
Missile proliferation. Delivery options… Nuclear, chemical, biological weapons need some means of delivery – Terrorists may be satisfied with truck or.
BELLWORK 1. How was Germany divided after WWII? 2. When was the Berlin Wall built? Who built it? 3. Why was the Berlin Wall built? 4. What was the Berlin.
Steven Pifer Senior Fellow Center on the United States and Europe Foreign Policy Studies The Brookings Institution New START: Treaty.
Nuclear Weapons: At What Cost ? 1.little do we know 2.rough estimates: cost over time 3.recent estimates: cost at a given time 4.nuclear weapon states.
Numbers of weapons Total number of nuclear missiles built, 1951-present: 67,500 Peak number of nuclear warheads and bombs in the stockpile: 32,193 in 1966.
Nuclear Arsenals. Table 1. Estimated global nuclear weapons inventories, Hans M. Kristensen, and Robert S. Norris Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
A Presentation by Henry Sokolski Executive Director Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Alexander Hamilton Society George Mason University.
 April 1945-FDR dies---Truman takes over  Truman wants war to end ASAP  A. Einstein writes letter to president stating dangers and power of nuclear.
US Dependence on Strategic Nuclear Weapons Does shifting to “zero” make sense? Keith Hansen June 15, 2012.
March 13—Write an identification for the Brezhnev Doctrine.
Path to a World Without Nuclear Weapons Presentation by H.E. Mr. Libran N. Cabactulan Permanent Representative of the Philippines to the United Nations.
Current Military Expenditures Top 20 United States$305.4 Billion Russia $55.0 Japan $41.1 China $37.5 United Kingdom $34.6 France $29.5 Germany $24.7 Saudi.
Nuclear Proliferation. Categories ► Declared Nuclear Powers: signed nuclear treaties.  Rules and regulations 1. U.S Russia Britian 1952.
Nuclear Weapons Number of operational warheads in the U.S. nuclear stockpile, according to the Pentagon. The figure is down from a peak of 31,225.
# of Nuclear Weapons In China 180 Active 240 Total.
First Nuclear Age, s Bipolarity – balance Deterrence – vulnerability Arms Control – Managing rivalry Rationality Second.
US-RUSSIA ARMS CONTROL: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES Steven Pifer Director, Arms Control Initiative March 25, 2013.
LT Rich Lesiw, USN.  In 2002, Russia and the United States agreed to conclude the Moscow Treaty (also known as the Strategic Operational Arms Treaty,
NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2013 Steven Pifer Senior Fellow Director, Arms Control Initiative October 10, 2012.
By: Tyler Callese. Thesis America’s aging nuclear deterrent must be either modernized or have a life extension program enacted because of the imminent.
Richard M. Nixon Foreign Policy:
U.S.A. List of places: North Korea Russia United Kingdom United States Canada China India Iran South Africa Israel Pakistan NOTE: The two most dangerous.
Mikheeva Y., MO Many historians argue that the bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki were a turning point in mankind's history, events that marked.
Lesson 2 – Disarmament.  Review goals of NPT treaty.  Compare different types of weapons.  Identify key treaties regulating nuclear arsenals.  Describe.
Can North Korea Build More Nuclear Weapons?. A North Korean People’s Army naval unit tests a new type of anti-ship cruise missile in this undated photo.
The Cold War Era The Soviet Union The United States VS
IS ARMS CONTROL THE ANSWER? What makes WMDs different? Chem, bio, & nuke vs. conventional weapons They seem.
IS ARMS CONTROL THE ANSWER? What makes WMDs different? Chem, bio, & nuke vs. conventional weapons They seem.
The Cold War, part II. America’s Cold War foreign policy: involvement and containment America’s Cold War foreign policy: involvement and containment Containment:
Ch 16 sec 2  Nuclear weapons were such a scary thing that it changed the way military strategy was planned from Hiroshima to today.  No nuclear weapons.
Chapter 27.  The fate of Germany became a source of heated contention between the Soviets and the West  After WWII, the Allied powers had divided Germany.
WHAT HAPPENS TO DETERRENCE AS NUCLEAR WEAPONS DECREASE TOWARD ZERO? INVITED TALK AMERICAN PHYSICAL SOCIETY ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA SIDNEY DRELL STANFORD UNIVERSITY.
The Build Up of Nuclear Forces In 1945, Klaus Fuchs, a British member of the Manhattan Project, sent copies of the plutonium bomb experiment to the Soviet.
Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control Rationality Multipolarity
The Cold War.
Airlifts, A-Bombs And M.A.D.
The Cold War Expands H-SS – Trace the origins and geopolitical consequences (foreign and domestic) of the Cold War and containment policy, including.
What is required for nuclear disarmament?
Bulletin of atomic scientists
The Future of US-Russia Nuclear Arms Control
Nuclear Proliferation and Arms Control (Part 4)
Day 1 Period 8. Day 1 Period 8 What do you know about the 1950’s? QI 1950’s 
Two Nations Live on Edge
Does China Pose a Military Threat to the United States?
Military Influence of the USA
Expanding U.S. Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: Enhancing or Undermining U.S.-NATO Relations? James McKeon
Getting What You Pay For
Getting What You Pay For
Missile Madness.
Presentation transcript:

Nuclear Arsenals

Status of World Nuclear Forces, 2015

All this info is from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) a This number is higher than the aggregate data under the New START treaty because this table also counts bomber weapons at bomber bases as deployed. b All are declared to be in central storage. Several thousand retired non-strategic warheads are awaiting dismantlement. c Includes all non-strategic warheads, strategic warheads assigned to delivery systems in overhaul, and most bomber weapons. d In addition to the 4,500 in the military stockpile, an estimated 3,000 retired warheads are estimated to be awaiting dismantlement. Details are scarce, but we estimate that Russia is dismantling 500-1,000 retired warheads per year.

e This number is higher than the aggregate data released under the New START data because this table also counts bomber weapons on bomber bases as deployed. See 2015 overview of U.S. forces here. See 2015 overview of U.S. forces here f Approximately 180 B61 bombs are deployed in Europe at six bases in five countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Turkey). For details, see here and here. see herehere g Non-deployed reserve includes an estimated 2,320 strategic and 300 non-strategic warheads in central storage. h The U.S. government declared in April 2015 that its stockpile included 4,717 warheads as of September Since then, a small number of warheads are thought to have been retired. declared

i In addition to the roughly 4,700 warheads in the military stockpile, the U.S. government in April 2015 announced that approximately 2,500 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement. In addition, close to 20,000 plutonium cores (pits) and some 5,000 Canned Assemblies (secondaries) from dismantled warheads are in storage at the Pantex Plant in Texas and Y-12 plant in Tennessee. For detailed overview of U.S. forces as of 2015, see here. announcedsee here j Only weapons for France’s single aircraft carrier are not considered deployed, although it is possible that warhead loadings on some submarines missiles have been reduced. For a review of the French arsenal, see this article. this article k China is thought to have “several hundred warheads,” far less than the 1,600- 3,000 that have been suggested by some. None of the warheads are thought to be fully deployed but kept in storage under central control. The exstence of a Chinese non-strategic nuclear arsenal is uncertain. The Chinese arsenal is increasing with production of new warheads for DF-31/31A and JL-2 missiles. Detailed overview of Chinese forces as of 2013 is here. several hundred warheadsDetailed overview of Chinese forces as of 2013 is here

l The number of warheads on each submarine is being lowered from 48 to 40, and may already have been completed. This will lower the number of “operationally available” warheads from 160 to 120. By the mid-2020s, the stockpile will be reduced to “not more than 180.” Detailed overview of British forces is here. Detailed overview of British forces is here m Although Israel has produced enough plutonium for warheads, the number of delivery platforms and estimates made by the U.S. intelligence community suggest that the stockpile might include approximately 80 warheads. Detailed 2014 overview of Israeli forces is here. Detailed 2014 overview of Israeli forces is here n None of Pakistan’s warheads are thought to be deployed but kept in central storage, most in the southern parts of the country. More warheads are in production. Detailed overview here. Detailed overview here o Indian nuclear warheads are not deployed but in central storage. More warheads are in production. Detailed overview of Indian forces is here. Detailed overview of Indian forces is here

p Despite three North Korean nuclear tests, there is no publicly available evidence that North Korea has miniaturized and operationalized its nuclear weapons capability. A 2013 world survey by the U.S. Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) does not credit any of North Korea’s ballistic missiles with any nuclear capability. world survey q Numbers may not add up due to rounding and uncertainty about the operational status of the four lesser nuclear weapons states and the uncertainty about the size of the total inventories of three of the five initial nuclear powers.

NewSTART Treaty: US and Russia Aggregate limits: 1,550 warheads. Warheads on deployed ICBMs and deployed SLBMs count toward this limit and each deployed heavy bomber equipped for nuclear armaments counts as one warhead toward this limit. This limit is 74% lower than the limit of the 1991 START Treaty and 30% lower than the deployed strategic warhead limit of the 2002 Moscow Treaty. A combined limit of 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments. A separate limit of 700 deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments. This limit is less than half the corresponding strategic nuclear delivery vehicle limit of the START Treaty. – White House explanation

In other words, … New START provides the parties with 7 years to reduce their forces, and will remain in force for a total of 10 years. It limits each side to no more than 800 deployed and nondeployed land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and submarine- launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launchers and deployed and nondeployed heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear armaments. Within that total, each side can retain no more than 700 deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear armaments. The treaty also limits each side to no more than 1,550 deployed warheads; those are the actual number of warheads on deployed ICBMs and SLBMs, and one warhead for each deployed heavy bomber. - Congressional Research Service explanation

An important technicality Notice that each bomber is counted as one warhead although the bombers actually carry more than one gravity bomb or air launched cruise missile (ALCM).