Periodic Review of the 1995 Water Quality Control Plan for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary Comments of The Bay Institute on.

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Presentation transcript:

Periodic Review of the 1995 Water Quality Control Plan for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary Comments of The Bay Institute on Vernalis Flow Objective February-April 14 and May 16-June 30 March 21, 2005

San Joaquin River flows at Vernalis are subject to greatest alteration during ecologically critical February- June period

Actual Vernalis flows as % of unimpaired: 2004: 23.5% 2003: 17.7% 2002: 19.9% 2001: 31.2% 2000: 38.5%

Relative contribution of San Joaquin Basin to Delta inflow has declined

2003: 6.4% 2004: 6.2% Relative contribution of San Joaquin Basin to Delta inflow has declined

San Joaquin Basin Chinook salmon populations are below the average and declining San Joaquin Basin Fall-run Chinook salmon

Winter-run Spring-run Fall-run Sacramento Basin Chinook Salmon In contrast, Sacramento Basin Chinook salmon populations have stabilized or increased Favorable ocean conditions and improvements in freshwater flow and habitat

San Joaquin Basin Chinook salmon population size is directly related to Vernalis flows during the juvenile outmigration Since 1995 WQCP implemented

Since 1995 WQCP implemented Population growth (return ratio) is also related to Vernalis flows during juvenile outmigration 1 -

Since 1995 WQCP implemented Population increase: 94% of years with flows >5000cfs Population decrease: 60% of years with flows <5000 cfs 1 -

Ratio of Vernalis flows to Delta export rates also affects population growth (return ratio) Since 1995 WQCP implemented return ratio = return ratio = 0.5

Population increase: 95% of years with flow:export >1.0 Population decrease: 67% of years with flow:export <1.0 Since 1995 WQCP implemented return ratio = return ratio = 0.5

Species or RunONDJFMAMJJAS Fall Chinook Late fall Chinook Winter Chinook Spring Chinook Steelhead Delta smelt 31-day pulse flow not sufficient to protect anadromous and estuarine fishes Migration of juvenile Chinook salmon and steelhead NOT restricted to April 15-May 16

April 15-May 15 (VAMP) March 15-April 14 May 16-June 15 Flow:export ratio conditions before and after the 31-day pulse flow are poor and worsening Restricted migration period reduces genetic and phenotypic diversity

Region% of Fishes That Are Native Species mean (±1 standard error) South Delta0.3% (±0.4) Central Delta10% (±2) North Delta29% (±3) West Delta49% (±4) Inadequate Vernalis flows degrade estuarine habitat in the south and central Delta Prevalence of non-native species is a well- documented indicator of degraded habitat CDFG Fall Midwater Trawl Survey

Freyer and Healey (2003) Sampled: March-November Only 24% of species and 0.5% of fish in south Delta were native species Fish species composition in south Delta related to flow Native fishes associated with higher flows

Vernalis: <1800 cfs Exports: >7500 cfs SJR:Export ratio: 1:4 (0.24) Freshwater inflows to south Delta are important to many estuarine fishes

Delta smelt population has declined to record low levels

Recommendation SWRCB should revise the Bay-Delta Plan to adopt more protective Vernalis flow objectives for the February-April 14 and May 16-June period. Monthly Vernalis objectives should be based on criteria relating to hydrology, San Joaquin Basin contributions to Delta inflow, and fish and estuarine habitat needs.

Vernalis flows should be: 1.Based on annual and monthly hydrology 2.Based on relative contribution of San Joaquin Basin to Delta inflow (>20% of total minimum require Delta inflow in BN, D and C years; >10% of actual Delta inflow in W, AN, and BN years) 3.>5000 cfs for three consecutive months in W and AN years, >5000 cfs for two consecutive months in BN years 4.>1500 cfs in all months, all years 5.<7000 cfs to allow installation of the Head of Old River Barrier 6.Linked to export rates to achieve March-June Vernalis:export ratio >1.0

MonthWater Year Type WANBNDC Feb March April April 15- May day flow objective as determined by VAMP experimental design May June Proposed Vernalis flows (monthly average) February-April 14, May 16-June

Proposed Vernalis flows for Water Years

2004: 108 TAF 27% (v 24%) of unimpaired 2003: 357 TAF 27% (v 18%) 2002: 204 TAF 26% (v 20%) 2001: 54 TAF 33% (v 31%) 2000: 0 TAF 38% (v 38%)