The Powerpoint file provides: A conceptual framework for how we have approached the task of developing prospective indicator lists for regions of the outer coast of Washington; A series of conceptual models of Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor, featuring some of the core physical, ecological, and anthropogenic elements we have initially perceived as central to those ecosystems. Pictorial models help us frame the components and processes; the box-and-arrow model helps us summarize our ideas concisely. Instructions: Please note what changes you would make to the model and either discuss those changes at the webinar on July 25, or send those changes to Kelly.Andrews@noaa.gov by August 8. Thank you.

Ecological components Conceptual framework of ecological indicators for marine spatial planning Seafloor Sandy Beaches Habitat quantity, quality Ecological components Physical drivers Human activities Structural Elements Ecological integrity Fisheries Focal species Pelagic zone Rocky shorelines Coastal estuaries Kelp forest

Coastal estuary habitat (what are the key components?)

Estuary habitat components Shorebirds & seabirds Oysters & clams Harbor seals Intertidal zone Other fishes Sevengill sharks Juvenile salmon Invasive eelgrass Other inverts Mouth ( ocean) Phytoplankton and POM Sturgeon Burrowing shrimp Detritus Mudflats Tributaries Dungeness crab Native eelgrass Waterfowl Ulva & other macrophytes

Estuary habitat components Food web connections Shorebirds & seabirds Oysters & clams Harbor seals Intertidal zone Other fishes Sevengill sharks Juvenile salmon Invasive eelgrass Other inverts Mouth ( ocean) Phytoplankton and POM Sturgeon Burrowing shrimp Detritus Mudflats Tributaries Dungeness crab Native eelgrass Waterfowl Ulva & other macrophytes

Tides, Upwelling, Plumes Estuary habitat components Other weather stuff relevant to intertidal: Winter storms, desiccation, air temp gradients Solar energy Physical drivers Shorebirds & seabirds Climate Change (including OA) Oysters & clams Harbor seals Intertidal zone Other fishes Sevengill sharks Juvenile salmon Invasive eelgrass Other inverts Mouth ( ocean) Tides, Upwelling, Plumes Phytoplankton and POM Sturgeon Freshwater input Burrowing shrimp Detritus Mudflats Tributaries Sediment resuspension/ bioturbation Dungeness crab Native eelgrass Waterfowl Sediment input (Columbia River and local tributaries)

Estuary habitat components Human activities – Grays Harbor Shorebirds & seabirds Port Development Pollutants Oysters & clams Harbor seals Intertidal zone Other fishes Sevengill sharks Juvenile salmon Invasive eelgrass Aquaculture Other inverts Mouth ( ocean) Phytoplankton and POM Sturgeon Dredging Fishing Non-native species Burrowing shrimp Detritus Mudflats Tributaries Dungeness crab Native eelgrass Waterfowl Shipping Watershed activities

Shoreline Development Shellfish Aquaculture Estuary habitat components Human activities – Willapa Bay Shorebirds & seabirds Pollutants (including pesticides) Oysters & clams Harbor seals Shoreline Development Intertidal zone Other fishes Sevengill sharks Shellfish Aquaculture Juvenile salmon Invasive eelgrass Other inverts Mouth ( ocean) Phytoplankton and POM Sturgeon Fishing Non-native species Burrowing shrimp Detritus Mudflats Tributaries Dungeness crab Native eelgrass Waterfowl Watershed activities

Ecological components Human well-being Climate & weather Freshwater input Tides & upwelling Physical drivers Sediment dynamics Plumes Ecological components Sevengill sharks Seals Sturgeon Habitat Eelgrass beds Sand and mudflats Waterfowl and seabirds Dungeness crabs Fishes Juvenile salmon Burrowing shrimp Oysters & clams Other inverts Eelgrass & macrophytes Marine phytoplankton Detritus Human well-being Fishing Human activities Pollution Dredging g Shellfish aquaculturew Non-native species Watershed activities Port development g Commercial shipping g Figure 12. Conceptual model of important habitat, ecological components, physical drivers and human activities (g: primarily in Grays Harbor; w: primarily in Willapa Bay) for coastal estuary habitat.

What is missing or wrong? Wait and discuss at webinar OR Add comments to each slide or make a list and email to kelly.andrews@noaa.gov

Next? Develop indicators for each component within the conceptual models Evaluate indicators using an indicator evaluation process This evaluation ranks indicators for each component and provides a mechanism for ranking indicators See PDF of last year’s report if interested in details Map highly-ranked indicators back onto the conceptual model to ensure all components can be assessed A potential example is provided on the next slide: Quantify status and trends of chosen indicators for final assessment

Estuary habitat components Food web connections Physical drivers Pacific Decadal Oscillation Human activities Shorebirds & seabirds Oysters & clams Harbor seals % armored shoreline Aquaculture production [Heavy metals] Other fishes Simpson diversity (inverts, fishes, birds) Top predator biomass Sevengill sharks Oyster condition index Juvenile salmon Aragonite saturation Invasive eelgrass Other inverts Smolt-to-adult survival Salinity/temp contour maps Phytoplankton and POM Sturgeon Fishery Landings Water quality index Age structure of sturgeon population [chlorophyll a] Areal extent of non-native species Burrowing shrimp Detritus Upwelling Index Burrowing shrimp density Dungeness crab Native eelgrass Waterfowl Ship cargo volume Sea level change Scavenger biomass River discharge Areal extent of habitat Reservoir storage volume Ulva & other macrophytes