Water Resources 101 Arizona’s Municipal: Water Future

Water Resources 101 Questions for the near and long-term: Where will our water be used? Where will it come from? When will we run out?

Water Resources 101 Water Planning in the Western States: Growing population Drought and climate change Overuse of groundwater supplies Endangered species concerns River ecosystem protection Over-appropriation Competing Uses Overview of Water Planning in Western States New Mexico Office of the State Engineer February 2009

Water Resources 101 Arizona’s population will continue to grow – and spread Climate change may impact supply reliability Near-Term Existing Supplies will become fully utilized New water transfer projects will be implemented Long-Term “Next bucket” will take decades to plan/implement What is out there?What steps are being taken? Planning + Investment = Reliability

Water Resources 101 “Red Dot” maps (source: Maricopa Association of Governments) 2010 through 2040 Population projections converted to demands for water How does projected water demand compare to water availability?

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Water Resources 101 Population Growth

Water Resources 101  Total State population projected to grow from 6 million to 12.8 million by 2050  Municipal water demand to increase by 110% - to a total of almost 3 MAF Regional Notes  Pinal County projected to grow by 400%  Water usage rates not necessarily intuitive: highest per capita use in Yuma County at 250 GPCD  State-wide municipal water use still dominated by three-county CAP service area: 85% of total in 2050

Water Resources 101 Do we need to know the cause to plan for the effects?

Water Resources 101 Rapidly growing population “in all the wrong places” east, central and west coastal areas and desert. Aging infra-structure that is stressed to provide either water supply or energy supply during periods of even moderate climate deviation Urban Heat Islands (UHI) associated with large population areas are a real “man-made” climate change impact. Beyond Stationarity – Climate changes due to natural variability are far beyond 30-yr climate design assumptions.

Water Resources 101 IPCC 4 multi-model ensemble

Water Resources 101 Climate modeling suggests natural variability explains little for future climate… Natural Variability Time Climate Model Projections Cone of Climate Uncertainty Waage, 2009

Water Resources 101

Salt/Verde System & SRP

Water Resources 101 Colorado River & CAP

Water Resources 101 AMAs & Basins

Water Resources 101 Extra: more water available after 200 years Moderate: some water, but not a lot Risk: about to run out Empty: overdraft will occur if not carefully managed

Water Resources 101 Dark Red: Stressors are causing overdraft conditions White: Projected stressors are not causing problems Opportunities for inter-basin transfers & new pipelines? Opportunities for shifting projected populations based upon water availability?

Water Resources 101

Current Landscape and golf course irrigation Groundwater recharge Wetlands, wildlife habitat, stream augmentation Industrial / power plant cooling processes Surface irrigation of orchards and vineyards Vehicle washing

Water Resources 101 Conservation Water Harvesting Gray water System Efficiency Balanced Water Supply Groundwater Surface Water Reclaimed Water Homes Commercial Losses Industry Parks New Supplies

Water Resources 101

Red Gap Ranch Big Chino McMullen, Butler, and Harquahala Black Mesa Brackish Supplies Red Gap Ranch Big Chino Black Mesa Pipeline Wilcox Basin McMullen, Butler, and Harquahala Yuma Brackish GW

Water Resources 101 Effluent exchanges CAGRD purchases Indian water settlements Growing reclaimed water service areas

Water Resources 101 C.C. Cragin in Payson (East Clear Creek Basin) Metro Water District, Marana, Oro Valley, and Flowing Wells Irrigation District (Allocated CAP) Green Valley, Sahuarita, and Surrounding Interests (Allocated and Unidentified CAP) Sierra Vista CAP Extension (Unidentified CAP) Lake Powell Pipeline in Northern Arizona (Unidentified Colorado River Water) Colorado River/CAP are Fully Allocated

Water Resources 101 Allow/encourage water availability to influence where development occurs? Conservation by design (increase the way infrastructure shapes water use)? Changes to rules/regulations to increase Arizona’s flexibility to meet water demands? Move water from where it is, to where it needs to be – large water transfer projects What about the long-term? Developing the “Next Bucket”

Water Resources 101 Surface Water ADD Water Reclaimed Water New uses Indirect Potable Reuse Seawater Desalination ………Salmon, Catfish, and Polar Bears? What supplies are out there?

Water Resources 101 CAP created Project Acquisition, Development and Delivery (ADD) Water Response to its 2006 Strategic Plan to: Establish a collaborative process Encourage fair competition Eliminate perceptions of unfair advantage Determine when new supplies need to be acquired and what entities get those supplies

Water Resources 101

Mexico, California, or both? Technologies Conceptual Study at Rocky Point

Water Resources 101 Salmon? Importation from the Yukon and/or Columbia Rivers Catfish? The Mississippi River Basin Polar Bears? What about towing icebergs (get them while they last!)

Water Resources 101 Questions for the near and long-term: Where will our water be used? State-wide, but 85% in Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima Where will it come from? Groundwater, Surface Water, Recycling, and Beyond When will we run out? When we decide to stop planning and fail to invest in our water infrastructure Answers