Suburban Silver Bullet: Halve SOV Commutes Goals: –Remove many cars from suburban office parks Current: 78% drive alone, 16% shared ride, 3% transit –Intensify land use / reclaim parking lots What works? –$10/day parking (effective, but unpopular) –Hypothesis: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility PRT = Personal Rapid Transit No “lifestyle sacrifice” Year 2008 scenario.

Customer-Centered Product Research Literature Product Concept Interviews Experts Commute Refined Concept Surveys Validation Silicon Valley style New technology bias –High touch / community building is natural –Takes on personality of researching organization Start with rough business case in mind and refine.

PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle Feeder / Distributor / Circulator –Similar to a monorail. VideoVideo High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. –Non-stop, 30 MPH –Bypasses intermediate stations –Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose –Convenient stops by buildings (not on street) –Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust –24x7.

PRT 5 mile alignment Vehicle Storage

Stanford Research Park In Palo Alto, CA 20,000 jobs Campus-style Parent of Silicon Valley 50% asphalt Commute Shed: –47% within 2 miles of Caltrain –49% within 10 miles 185 edge cities > Memphis

Promising Results (62 surveys) Promising, but not definitive Solo commutes: 89%  45% –Carpool: 9%  32%, train: 0%  15.5% train –For 20K people, removes 6,600 autos 350 s.f. per space  50 acres  $326M hsng profit 1.32 PRT trips/day/person => 26K trips/day –PRT: profitable (capital, O&M) Huge transit village  land value increase Apply to 6M workers in major emp. centers –1.98M cars, 12B VMT, 424M gals, 8.4B lbs CO 2.

Comprehensive, Integrated Mobility Door to Door Centralized Cars: share, rent, ride home Delivery services, Personal activities, Business services first mile Train first mile Bus Walk Bike, scooter, Segway Smart jitney, hitchhike Web/wireless coordination Supportive policy context Scale! Short carpool pick up first mile Long carpool Improved match-making Shared parking, nuride PRT shuttle system LAST MILE mid-day trips

Cellular Solutions Marauder’s Map (GPS) –Transit, rideshare connections Like NextBus –Get home safe (Big Sister is watching).

Old transit village 20 acres Jobs “New Suburbanist” Transit Village New retail New housing Train Station PRT shuttle system Extended T.O.D acres Reduced auto dependence: < 50% SOV trips (for workers, residents, & shoppers.) Child/Senior mobility! Business Services: Banks, PC store, copies, FedEx, legal, accounting, etc. Personal Activities: Quality schools, day care, hiking, parks, movies, grocery, banks, restaurants, cafes, bars, grocery, gym, massage, yoga, dentist, etc. Efficient: transit node + vibrant place, shared parking, lower living cost, less car ownership, more time. A new choice! (versus buying beyond the greenbelt). Jobs/Housing Re-balance: workforce housing

Literature + Interviews + Surveys Large solo driving reduction is hard Last mile problem is very important –Mid-day trips: 2X value of time –Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles Each commuter: basket of objections –PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient 30% time penalty: OK Carpool psychology is complex: –Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating) –Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important Short Caltrain or carpool with PRT: OK Customer support: eliminate nightmares Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home Good commute: “time went fast.”

PRT status 2 companies developing –Taxi 2000, Fridley (60’ track, 1 vehicle) –ULTra, Cardiff, Wales (1km track, 2 vehicles) Heathrow procurement Dubai procurement (no public review!).

PRT Investor Due Diligence The Team – entrepreneurial cost control, etc. –IBM vs. IBM skunk works. Golem Group Control system design (architect spends 1/3 of time writing documentation) Control system safety certification –Public utilities commission? –Each SW “version” requires painful re-certification Annual operating costs –Video surveillance, etc. –Insurance for the first system will be high Switch reliability (1 fail out of 2M trips  50 days) Performance degrades near capacity (wave-offs).

PRT+D2D Economics

END Silver Bullet