The Future of Software Engineering 中国科学技术大学软件学院 孟宁 2010 年 12 月

Contents 14.1How have we done? 14.2Technology transfer 14.3 Decision making in software engineering 14.4The professionalization of software engineering: licensing, certification and ethics

Chapter 14 Objectives ♦The Wasserman principles and how we have done ♦Technology transfer ♦How researchers provide evidence for technology adoption ♦Decision making in software engineering ♦Next step in research and practice

14.1 How Have We Done? ♦Use complex languages ♦Use patterns and abstractions ♦Apply formal methods ♦Build a vast array of tools

14.1 How Have We Done? Challenges Ahead ♦Provide great accuracy in the large: we can tell –when a space vehicle will reach Mars –when a chemical reaction will reach a critical stage ♦Do not have accuracy in small: we cannot tell –precisely when a software product will fail again –exactly how a user will exercise system’s function

14.1 How Have We Done? Wasserman’s Steps to Maturity ♦Abstraction ♦Analysis and design notations ♦User interface prototyping ♦Software architecture ♦Software process ♦Reuse ♦Measurement ♦Tools and integrated environments

14.1 How Have We Done? What Now? ♦Should consider how well we move the new software engineering ideas into practice ♦Must consider how well our research and practice support decision making about processes, resources, and products

14.2 Technology Transfer ♦Producers: create and use new technologies ♦Consumers: adopt and use new technologies in new products and services

14.2 Technology Transfer How We Make Technology Transfer Decision Now ♦In the 1960s and 1970s, it took an average of 7.5 years for new technology to become widely available ♦Because of time-to-market pressure, new technologies must prove themselves quickly

14.2 Technology Transfer Adopter Types ♦Innovators ♦Early adopters ♦Early majority ♦Late majority ♦Laggards

14.2 Technology Transfer Evidence Supporting Technology Decisions ♦Researchers: reproducible validation methods –theoretical proof, static analysis, and simulation ♦Practitioners: methods relevant to their environment –case studies, field studies, and replicated controlled experiments

14.2 Technology Transfer Types of Evidence and Their Audiences What will you do for your new technology ？

14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering ♦Two points of view of decision-making –Descriptive 描述性的 : provides evidence about how decisions are actually made –Prescriptive 说明性的 : provides frameworks and methods to help decision-makers

14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Roots of Decision Science

14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Elements that Affect How We Make Decision

14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Issues in Group Decision-Making

14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Types of Decision ♦Strategic decision: affects the well being and nature of the organization ♦Tactical decision: affects pricing, employee assignment, customer interaction, or operations ♦Routine decision: repetitive in nature, local in scope, and guided by organizational rules or policies

14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering How We Really Decide ♦Bias Caused by Decision Context 背景偏见 ♦stereotype threat 刻板印象威胁 ♦status quo bias 现状偏见 ♦Individuals exhibit a marked preference for case- specific,or singular information 个体对特定情况和 单一信息由明显偏好 ♦ 一个因素出现的越久远，回忆者降低其重要性的 倾向就越高 ♦Anchoring-and-adjustment 锚定和调整 ♦ 不愿表现的消极

14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Example Used in Assessing Group Effects ConditionError rate Subject is alone1% With one person who says A3% With two people who say A13% With three people who say A33% With six who say A and one who say B6%

14.4 The Professionalization of Software Engineering: Licensing, Certification and Ethics ♦Improve software engineering education ♦Licensing or certification to improve process and product

谢谢大家！ References 软件工程 - 理论与实践（第四版 影印版） Software Engineering: Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition),Shari Lawrence Pfleeger,Joanne M. Atlee, 高等教育出版社 软件工程 - 理论与实践（第四版） Software Engineering: Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition),Shari Lawrence Pfleeger,Joanne M. Atlee, 杨卫 东译, 人民邮电出版社 软件工程 — 实践者的研究方法（ Software Engineering-A Practitioner’s Approach ） ; ( 美 ) Roger S. Pressman 著； 机械工业出版社 ISBN ：