Losing Air Dominance? Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning

What is Air Dominance? Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force goals Freedom to attack…any target, with mission success Freedom from attack…defeat of enemy fighters and SAMs Freedom to maneuver…for forces on land or sea Operation Desert Storm, ,735 23,455

Iraq and Afghanistan Munitions Dropped 2004 to 2008 Sorties Flown 2004 to 2008

The Plan After 1991 Success of F-117 in 1991 Gulf war set Air Force position on stealth Fighter force structure cut by 44% as Cold War ended Replacement strategy: 1991: Advanced Tactical Fighter program down-select to maintain air dominance technologies 1994: Joint Strike Fighter research initiated as affordable stealth fighter/attack to replace F-16 and A-10 force structure “Never again buy a non-stealthy fighter” – Chief of Staff Gen. McPeak

Major Fighter Aircraft Buys *Estimates 59 F-117s Today’s CAF purchased

The Force Mix Active Component 1995 Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs. Force healthy in mid-1990s Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force 1995: Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1% of active force Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 TAI Active Only

2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom: Aircraft Felt Their Age Decline from Operation Desert Storm averaged over 10% F-15C average age = 18 years Desert Storm: Data 28 Feb 91 Iraqi Freedom: Data Average Mission Capable Rates Operation Desert Storm vs. Operation Iraqi Freedom Mission Capable Rates Operation Desert Storm vs. Operation Iraqi Freedom

F-22 is first supersonic stealth aircraft 2 engine, supercruise design with ample internal missiles Designed to assure air dominance through fleet life ~2040 –Depends on number of aircraft procured F-22 is first supersonic stealth aircraft 2 engine, supercruise design with ample internal missiles Designed to assure air dominance through fleet life ~2040 –Depends on number of aircraft procured F-22s

From Three Fighters to One F-117: Stealth attack of heavily defended targets F-15E: Advanced air-to-ground platform F-15: Air superiority fighter with 100 kills, no air combat losses 665 Total Active F-15, F-15E and F F Currently Funded 381 F-22s Air Force Requirement

How to See Stealth This F-15E from Lakenheath on an OIF mission carried fuel, targeting pods, air-to- ground weapons and air- to-air missiles externally In contrast, the F-22 has four internal weapons bays and targeting integrated with its avionics Internal fuel and weapons bays greatly improve the F-22’s stealth –The two side-bay doors are open here Internal fuel and weapons bays greatly improve the F-22’s stealth –The two side-bay doors are open here NOT STEALTH STEALTH

F-22 and F-35: Partnership F-22 technology development and risk reduction flow to F-35 Radar F119/F120 Engine Development Integrated, open architecture avionics Unique F-22 Capabilities Advanced LO Materials and Manufacturing Computer-based maintenance

True to Plan: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys Gulf War Estimate F-22 and F-35 would have led to smaller force, more precision and survivability, no legacy aircraft

Comptroller’s Plan December 2004: PBD 753 (FY06 PB) $10.5B Cut $46.1B Cut More O&S costs for old Fighters ~1285 funded ~2,167 req’t. ~ 1772 QDR PBD 753 cut $10B from F-22 program (100 aircraft) F-22 F-15C F-15E Pushed long-term funding far below stated requirement

Crisis: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys Gulf War Estimate Budget cuts shrink force below QDR requirement

The Legacy Force Mix Active Component Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs. Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force From 1990 to 2008, active fighter and attack force shed ~1000 aircraft 1995: Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1% of active force 2008: Legacy fighters over 18 years 55% of active force Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F aircraft over 18 yrs. TAI Active Only

Considerations: New administration budget guidance F-22 availability for NATO PACOM force structure –Option for Japan* Considerations: New administration budget guidance F-22 availability for NATO PACOM force structure –Option for Japan* Current: Program of Record is 183 total aircraft buy Will yield ~126 Combat-Coded Aircraft 7 Squadrons 18 PAA F-22 Force Sizing PACOM AOR CENTCOM AOR Langley AFB Holloman AFB Hickam AFB Elmendorf AFB NATO: No F-22s

Threat Environment Iraq 2003: 2884 launches in 25 days –Peak: 190 launches on Day 15 Persistent mobile SAMs moved daily –SA-2, SA-3, SA-6s, Rolands –66% were unlocated despite 12 years of operations and one year of accelerated SAM destruction Kosovo 1999: 894 SAM launches in 78 days –Peak: 43 launches on Day 39 Threats can persist for weeks even against older defenses US forces have not yet faced SA Iraqi Surface to Air Missile Launches in 2003 SA-20

Red Air Source: DoD Report, 2006 PRC F-10 Lethal SAMS and Red air ~1200 F-10 advanced 4 th Gen fighters in production –DIA estimates similar to Typhoon, Rafale Su-30 and Su-33 purchases Work on AWACS-like system based on IL-76 Acquisition of 8 Russian air refueling aircraft Complete radar coverage of all borders “You will be outnumbered…” ADM Willard, Commander, US Pacific Fleet, Sep 2008

Getting Back on Track? Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 Estimate Ratio gets worse, before it gets better Fighter force reaches 80% legacy circa 2014 Recovers to 62% legacy circa 2020 –Assumes 243 total F-22s –Assumes ramp rate to 80 USAF F-35s per year Active total inventory declines to 1320 –Guard and Reserve forces steadily age out Fighter and attack force highly capable but limited in number of joint tasks it can serve TAI Active Only

F-22 Termination Options OSDUSAF Fleet Size 339 Maintain service life to Lot 10 then defer to QDR Analysis Yields ~203 F-22s Lot 10Lot 11Lot 12 Current Program Sustain force with 3 more lots –20-24 acft per lot Synchronize with F-35 way forward –Hedge F-35 concurrency risk 10 squadrons total –Take from back-up inventory, training and attrition reserve to create 10 squadrons CJCS: “60”

Way Ahead… No service depends more on F-35 than the USAF Only program of maturity and scale to maintain USAF fighter and attack missions Biggest risk: restricting program build- up from 2010 to 2015 Essential for Navy, Marine Corps and allies

F-22 Workforce Impact Direct F-22 Jobs by State Jobs Lost at F-22 Production Termination “I can throw a blanket over the production line to keep it warm, but what about the people?” -- F-22 Program Manager F-22 has 26,657 direct jobs in 2008 –At full rate, F-35 will transfer 5300 jobs* some to other programs –4,400 jobs remain on F-22 after 2011 Permanent loss of 17,000 highly skilled jobs If Production Continues 17,000