Presented by: Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov,

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Presentation transcript:

Presented by: Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama

~70,000 killed million internally displaced ~1.2 million refugees March present

The Crisis Within the Syrian Borders

Supreme Kurdish Committee (SKC) Kurdish National Council Kurdish Democratic Union Party Ebril Declaration -Internally divided -Lacks genuine ground presence -Detached from Kurdish youth -Internally cohesive -Has an established presence -Rejects any type of foreign intervention

National Coalition for Syrian and Opposition Forces SNCFSA Al-Nusra Front Other Opposition Groups -Requests support without military intervention -Has clear plan for role in transition -Tension with FSA -Inclusive militia of SA deserters -Sees itself as secular protector of Syria -Alleged Al-Qaeda links -Strong community outreach -Co-opting infrastructure to fund operations

GDP growth 3.2% in % in 2012 Investment $14 bn in 2010 $10 bn in 2012 Unemployment 8.3 % in % in 2012 Inflation 30% in % in 2010

Syria and US-Russian Relations

Sunni Extremists

Chechen Fighters

Insecurity

- Insurgency in the North Caucuses - Sunni Public Opinion  A strong stance is hard to convert into concrete influence Neutral Stance Recent Shift Support for Assad

- Lack of secular replacement for Assad - Low legitimacy of opposition - Security Council Stalemate Alternatives: Tactical changes, strategic continuity

Key but “distant” players

Policy Proposals