Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA1 Making the State of the Art the State of the Practice: Modeling Tools for Road.

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Presentation transcript:

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA1 Making the State of the Art the State of the Practice: Modeling Tools for Road Pricing Peter Vovsha William Davidson Robert Donnelly PB Consult, Parsons Brinckerhoff Inc

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA2 Presentation Outline General issues: 1.Classification of pricing forms 2.Overview of modeling approaches Major breakthrough directions: 3.Reliability 4.Heterogeneity of users in choice context 5.Heterogeneity of users in traffic simulation 6.Advanced time-of-day / peak spreading technique 7.Toll road as travel choice Conclusions

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA3 1. Classification of Pricing Forms

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA4 Pricing Characteristics Facility Vehicle / traveler Unit of travel Collection

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA5 Pricing Characteristics Facility Vehicle / traveler Unit of travel Collection Individual Area / cordon Sub-network (inter- city) Entire network

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA6 Pricing Characteristics Facility Vehicle / traveler Unit of travel Collection Flat Type (car, truck, CV) Auto occupancy Truck weight / axles / PCE Emission / fuel Residence Chains

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA7 Pricing Characteristics Facility Vehicle / traveler Unit of travel Collection Flat per trip By TOD period By area Entry-exit Distance-based Time-based Congestion-based Daily / bulk discount

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA8 Pricing Characteristics Facility Vehicle / traveler Unit of travel Collection Manual Pass Vehicle equipment Automatic <

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA9 2. Overview of Modeling Approaches

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA10 Wide Range of Techniques Simplified sketch planning:  Short-term / Established facility Spreadsheet based on elasticity Sample enumeration “Real” models:  Long-term / New facility Regional model Corridor-specific model

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA11 Focus on Regional Models Network simulation (Route choice): Static UE assignment Dynamic Traffic Assignment / Micro- simulation Demand models (Mode / destination / TOD choices): Conventional trip-based 4-step Advanced activity-based tour-based

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA12 Static Traffic Assignment ! ? Simplicity Large networks VDF for distance time & congestion-based tolls Route choice only Vehicle type, occupancy, VOT, payment type, leads to multi- class w/full trip tables Cannot handle non-link and non-trip forms (entry-exit, daily) Cannot incorporate reliability / time variability Simplified toll-collection delays

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA13 DTAssignment / MCSM ! ? Entire-route (non-link) pricing Linkage across TOD slices Queues / realistic delays Individual vehicle types Reliability / time variability Route choice only Small & medium networks Cannot handle daily pricing

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA14 4-Step Trip-Based Model ! ? Simplicity Mode & trip distribution OD time & cost / reliability Limited segmentation Inconsistent TOD Inconsistent mode choice Car occupancy as mode Cannot handle daily pricing

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA15 Activity-Based Tour-Based Model ! ? Consistent mode choice Consistent TOD & daily schedule Unlimited segmentation by VOT Vehicle type & occupancy as intra- household choices Payment type as individual choice Complexity

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA16 Breakthrough Directions Relevant and applicable in different modeling frameworks Theoretically substantiated and practically estimated & tested Based on conventional data sources Can be applied TODAY <

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA17 3. Reliability

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA18 Willingness to Pay Value of Time (VOT) Lost participation in activities Disutility of travel Value of Reliability (VOR) Non-recurrent congestion Accidents / Weather / Road works Other Values: Safety Information

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA19 Quantification of Reliability Alternative-specific constants (Indirect) : Rail bias Toll road bias Distance / time based terms (Indirect) : Rail distance term Toll-road distance/time/time-savings term Deviation from average travel time (Direct) : Time distribution-based statistics Schedule adherence indices for transit Transit wait time curves Probability of significant delay (Direct) : SP estimation Function of V/C in application

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA20 VOR, Small et al, 2005, SR-91 Difference between the 80 th and 50 th percentile

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA21 VOR, Small et al, 2005, SR-91 Being late is more onerous than being early; thus 80 th -50 th is better than STD Distribution of travel times is assumed known to travelers based on their experience VOR is roughly equal to VOT Reliability accounts for 1/3 of the attraction of express lanes

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA22 VOR Illustration PercentileRoad 1Road 2Preference 1041 min29 min 2042 min30 min 3043 min35 min 4044 min39 min 5045 min40 min 6046 min41 min 7047 min45 min 8048 min50 min 9049 min51 min min52 min

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA23 VOR Illustration PercentileRoad 1Road 2Preference 1041 min29 min 2042 min30 min 3043 min35 min 4044 min39 min 5045 min40 min 6046 min41 min 7047 min45 min 8048 min50 min 9049 min51 min min52 min

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA24 VOR Illustration PercentileRoad 1Road 2Preference 1041 min29 min 2042 min30 min 3043 min35 min 4044 min39 min 5045 min40 min2 nd road 6046 min41 min 7047 min45 min 8048 min50 min1 st road 9049 min51 min min52 min <

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA25 4. Heterogeneity of Users in Choice Context

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA26 VOT Distribution Hensher & Goodwin, 2003

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA27 VOT – NY Model

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA28 VOT – Montreal Model

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA29 Possible Segmentation 3-4 income groups 3-4 travel purposes 2 genders 2-3 person types 2-3 TOD periods 2-3 vehicle occupancy classes × segments / trip tables

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA30 Probabilistic Approach All possible segments cannot be handled Significant situational variability (intra- segment and intra-person): Trip to airport In a hurry for business meeting Driving home because child is sick Late for a music show Flexible vs. fixed work hours

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA31 Random Coefficients Logit Small et al, 2005

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA32 Random Coefficients Logit Small et al, 2005  Simultaneous and consistent estimation of:  Observed heterogeneity - segmentation  Unobserved heterogeneity – random terms  Software for estimation is available  Easily applied in micro-simulation by direct generation of random utilities  Requires numerical integration of probability for aggregate models <

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA33 5. Heterogeneity of Users in Traffic Simulation

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA34 Bi-Criterion Route Choice OD $1 30 min $2 35 min $1 45 min $0 40 min $1

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA35 Extreme Efficient Paths, Mahmassani et al, 2004 <

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA36 6. Advanced TOD Choice / Peak Spreading Technique

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA37 Entire-Tour Effects 523 Work tour to schedule

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA38 Entire-Tour Effects 523 Work tour to schedule Considerations for departure time: Office hours (7-10) Avoid congestion (10+) Give ride to child (7)

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA39 Entire-Tour Effects 523 Work tour 10

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA40 Entire-Tour Effects 523 Work tour 10 Considerations for arrival time: Office hours (<=20) Avoid congestion (<16) Tennis before dark (<17)

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA41 Entire-Tour Effects 523 Work tour 1015 Considerations for duration: 8 work hours Finish presentation on Pricing

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA42 Entire-Tour Effects 523 Work tour 919

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA43 4-Step Model Focus on one period (AM peak) AM peak spreading isolated from other periods Sensitivity to pricing is overestimated: Aggregation bias over VOT segments Entire-day constraints ignored AM peak spreading can make PM congestion worse! Shifting part-time workers to AM shoulder Shifting non-work travel from AM period

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA44 Activity-Based Model Entire-day schedule AM Peak / PM peak spreading are modeled together Sensitivity to congestion pricing is realistic: Various VOT segments Entire-day constraints Impact of AM peak spreading on PM peak is modeled explicitly <

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA45 7. Toll Road as Travel Choice

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA46 Existing Approaches Assignment only (no demand changes) Binary choice (toll/non-toll): Non-toll users diverted to other routes Non-toll users diverted to other periods (peak spreading) Non-toll users diverted from highway (diversion curves) Incorporation in mode / TOD / destination choice

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA47 Mode & Toll Road Choice Fixed

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA48 Additional Complications Payment type choice (manual, EZ pass, transporder) Non-trip-based pricing forms (daily area pricing) Person-based exemptions / discounts / reimbursement Basic order of choices (mode, destination, TOD) is still an open issue

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA49 SR-91 (Yan, et al, 2002)

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA50 Inclusion Recommendations Trip generation Trip distribution TOD choice Mode choice Payment type Toll road choice Network route Car occupancy ?Large-scale projects & policies ?  TOD-specific pricing  Strong transit alternative  Occupancy-specific pricing  Several technologies  

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA51 Applied Combinations Trip generation Trip distribution TOD choice Mode choice Payment type Toll road choice Network route Car occupancy ? ?      

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA52 How many applied models address all aspects in a consistent way? <

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA53 Conclusions Right tool for the planning need and context: Available information / surveys Existing modeling framework Form / scale of pricing and expected impacts Progress relates to general advances in modeling: Dynamic traffic assignment / micro-simulation Activity-based demand models Synthesis of good ideas & best practices Integrated approach – “Bigger picture”: Network simulation Demand modeling Evaluation / optimization

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA54 Integrated Decision Making

Expert Forum on Road Pricing, USDOT, November 14-15, 2005, Alexandria, VA55 Thank You for Your Attention! Q?