What Resources Matter to the Chemical Industry ? Coal, Gas, Oil Electricity (Hydro, nuclear or above) Water (solvent, coolant) Human Resources IP Metals (Fe ….. Rh) Nonmetals (Chlorine, Bromine …. Selenium) Minerals (CaMgCO 3, Phosphates, Potassium…)

Reality Check I: Are we becoming more oil dependent ? Tons of oil / Mio Euro of GDP (Germany)

Reality Check II: Are Commodities becoming Rare ?

Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005)

Who digs Metals & Minerals ?

Iron (CVRD) Base metals: Al, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni Precious Metals Ag, Au, Pd, Pt How are metals classified ?

Precious Metal Prices (US $ / ounce) US $ / ounce

Precious Metal Prices

Base Metal Prices (US $ / pound) April 2006

Metals And Minerals: Zinc Brass (Cu-Zn alloy) known in Assyria & Babylon Up to 1800 exclusively mined in India, current mines in China, Canada, Japan, Australia Korea Byproduct of Pb, Cu, Ag mining 50 % used in galvanization (corrosion inhibition) 20 % used for brass Essential metal with no substitutes !

Demand > supply, new mines planned in Bolivia, China Largest producer: Teck-Cominco (Canada) World production 10.3 Mio tons (2004), up 6% from 2003 Price expected to rise due to lack of new mines & steeply rising demand from India/China (China Jan-Jul 2005: 67,000 t compared to 15,000 in 2004) Metals And Minerals: Zinc

Zinc Prices

Zinc Inventory

Metals And Minerals: Nickel No technical use up to 1850 At present 70 % used for stainless steel Largest producers: Norilsk Nickel (RUS) Inco (CAN), Australia 1.2 Mio tons (2004) Supply growing 5 % annually Worldwide demand for stainless steel growing 5% annually Vosey's Bay, Inco planned for 2006: 60,000 t real production ,000 t Ravensthorpe (AUS) 50,000 /y 2007

Nickel Prices

Nickel Inventory

Metals And Minerals: Pt - Pd Pt First described by Italian Humanist Caesar Scaliger but known to South American Indians before that. Usual product of Cu and Ni refining but pure Pt mines exist in South Africa Largest consumer: Car Catalysts, Ostwald Process Largest producer: Anglo Platinum 80 % of Pt from S.A., tendency rising, Russian Production falling 50 % of Pd from Russia 850 $ /ounce Pt (Apr 2004: 994, 24 y high) 170 $ /ounce Pd

Metals And Minerals: Cu 16.5 Mio t Largest Producer: Codelco (Chile) Producing countries US > CAN > Zaire, Sambia, Poland Indispensable electrical conductor (only Ag, Au are better) Currently trading at all time high No general agreement on price development Price predicted to fall in 2007 but rise again 2009

Cu in Chile: 40 % of exports, 9 % of GDP Escondida mine is 20 % of Chile’s coppper and 2.5 % of Chiles GDP Supports 10,000 jobs

Electrolytic Copper refining

Copper Prices

Copper Inventory

Silver Historical corellation with gold price weakening Small market 10 % of Gold, strong price fluctuations Sideproduct of Ni, Pb, Cu, Au mining other mining activities Mexico, Peru, Australia, China, Poland 40 % industrial use (mainly electroncis, 30 jewlery, 25 % Photography Increasing demand (electronics) declining reserves, no newmines Current reserves last a 5 years, 2011 Largest Producers Rio Tinto (GB), BHP Minerals (AUS) End of film photography price drop, but slowly rising since 1998 Currently $ /ounce

Prejudice 1. Not enough area Example Germany:Roof area 800 km2 = 175 TWh (Conversion 13.5%) = 33 % of current electricity use Prejudice 2: Too expensive Doubling of production capacity reducess price by 20 % Break even point with current oil/gas prices I this decade Prejudice 3: Negative energy balance Current solar cells require 7 y to recover energy costs Lifetime > 30 y New energy saving photovoltaics (organic dyes) on horizon Solar Energy - Silicon

Solar electricity currently more expensive than fossil electricity Breakeven:2011 (Germany) even earlier in California, Spain (China, India) California, 12 pm: $ 0.8 conventional - $ 0.4 solar Will depend on political decisions (no incentive = baseline) Solar Energy - Cost Analysis 2004 to 2050

Annual growth: % $ 7 Billion (2004) up from 4.7 Billion (2003) Expected 2010: $ 40 Billion (MKD: China ? India ?) Demand for S.Cells outstrips supply (!) Bottleneck: Supply of pure Si Demand for Solar Si surpassed electronic Si in 2005 Installation (2004) Germany 300 MW Japan 280 MW US 90 MW (booo) Largest Players:1. Sharp (Japan) 2. BP (UK) 3. Solarworld (Germany) - Best of breed 4. Q-Cells (Germany Solar Energy - Some Hard Facts

Solar Energy - The Market in 2006

Global revenues (2003) : $ 4.7 Bn US Solar energy:40 % global market (1997) 13 % global market (2003)

Solar energies daily profile matches demand (!) Rating of solar installations in kWp (kilpo Watt peak) mono- or polycrystalline silicon dominant materials Direct current, has to be changed to alternating current

Munich Terminal MWh electricity = 400 t CO 2 / year

USPRCJPRUSGERINDBRAS Comsumption Production Mio t Large Consumers