PPT Presentation Template: This PPT includes all slides to present a district or building level overview of PVAAS. This was used with a district- wide K-12 faculty group in a small school district, where one grade level represented one building versus multiple buildings on a district level report.

PVAAS: Evaluating Growth, Projecting Performance

Today’s Session Concept of PVAAS Concept of PVAAS Overview of Reporting Overview of Reporting Math and Reading, Grades 4-8Math and Reading, Grades 4-8 Math and Reading, Grade 11Math and Reading, Grade 11 Science, Grades 4, 8 and 11Science, Grades 4, 8 and 11 Writing, Grades 5, 8 and 11Writing, Grades 5, 8 and 11 School District Data School District Data Questions and Answers Questions and Answers

What Is PVAAS?

PVAAS IS : Analysis of existing assessment data –Longitudinal PSSA scores in available content areas Math, Reading, Science, Writing –Provides reliable estimates A measure of a school’s effectiveness Critical Relationship: Growth Data vs. Achievement Data

PVAAS: Is not another test Is not a comparison of single test scores Critical concept: Does not provide a measure of growth for an individual student

High Achievement Average Achievement Low Achievement Current Data Collection Approaches Achievement is based on each student’s ending point.

PVAAS Adds Another Variable To Achievement…Progress Below Growth Standard At or Above Growth Standard Progress is based on each student’s starting point.

Viewing Achievement and Progress Together Scatter Plots: Grades 4-8 Reading and Math

The Scatter Plot Coordinate System Vertical Axis PSSA Percent Proficient or Advanced Horizontal Axis PVAAS Growth Measure AYP Percent Proficient Target Growth Standard Boundary One Year Growth

Scatter Plot Quadrants and Their Meanings Quad 1 Adequate Achievement Positive Growth Quad 4 Below Adequate Achievement Positive Growth Quad 2 Adequate Achievement Negative Growth Quad 3 Below Adequate Achievement Negative Growth

SD Scatter Plots Grade 4 ReadingMath Insert District Scatter Plots Here

SD Scatter Plots Grade 5 ReadingMath Insert District Scatter Plots Here

SD Scatter Plots Grade 6 ReadingMath Insert District Scatter Plots Here

SD Scatter Plots Grade 7 ReadingMath Insert District Scatter Plots Here

SD Scatter Plots Grade 8 ReadingMath Insert District Scatter Plots Here

Viewing Achievement and Progress Together Scatter Plots: Grade 11 Reading and Math

Grade 11 Scatter Plots The PSSA-PVAAS Scatter Plots visually display the following data from the statewide distribution of PSSA results for the most current school year. Achievement Achievement The mean predicted performance of the cohort.The mean predicted performance of the cohort. The actual mean performance of all students in the state is displayed for referenceThe actual mean performance of all students in the state is displayed for reference Growth Growth School Effect ≈ Observed Mean – Predicted MeanSchool Effect ≈ Observed Mean – Predicted Mean Standardized School Effect = School Effect relative to its error – displays degree of confidenceStandardized School Effect = School Effect relative to its error – displays degree of confidence The following two slides explain the meaning of each of the regions of an 11 th grade scatter plot.

The Scatter Plot Coordinate System for Grade 11 Horizontal Axis Growth Measure in Standard Errors Vertical Axis Mean Predicted Scaled Score Growth Descriptor Boundaries (±2SEs) 2010 Mean Scaled Score

Scatter Plot Regions and Their Meanings for Grade 11

SD Scatter Plots Grade 11 ReadingMath Insert District Scatter Plots Here

The TWO Types of PVAAS Information Today Looking Back/Evaluation… Value-added Growth Reports For Cohorts of Students Looking Forward/Planning… PVAAS Projection Reports For Individual Students and Cohorts of Students NO individual measure of student growth.

PVAAS Reporting

Student Projections Wouldn’t it be great to know the likelihood that a student will be proficient on a future PSSA?

Student Projection Methodology A separate longitudinal modeling process focused on the performance scores of individual students. A separate longitudinal modeling process focused on the performance scores of individual students. The model uses all of the available data (both math and reading) to project future PSSA performances in Math, Reading, Science and Writing. The model uses all of the available data (both math and reading) to project future PSSA performances in Math, Reading, Science and Writing. Projections can be calculated for an individual student or groups of students. Projections can be calculated for an individual student or groups of students.

How do I know that the projection is accurate? The projection is precise, and is created using a model that has been reviewed and approved by four different peer review panels and the GAO (US Government Accountability Office). The most recent 2008 growth model proposal to USDOE includes information regarding the statistical model and projection reliability study. ( Recent studies have confirmed that the PVAAS projections (even as far as 3 years into the future) are more reliable at looking at the future performance of a student than the most recent PSSA score.

PVAAS Student Projection Report

PVAAS Projections for Groups of Students Student Search

Identified Students Meeting Search Requirements

PVAAS Reporting Projections to Basic, Proficient, and Advanced Grade Last Tested Math and Reading:  3  4 or 5  4  5 or 6  5  6 or 7  6  7 or 8  7  8  8  11 Writing:  3  5  4  5  5  8  6  8  7  8  8  11 Science :  3  4  4  NA  5  8  6  8  7  8  8  11 Grade Last Tested

Projection Summary Reports What is it? What is it? Report that summarizes the numbers and percents of students in likelihood ranges of performing at the proficient level on a future PSSA exam.Report that summarizes the numbers and percents of students in likelihood ranges of performing at the proficient level on a future PSSA exam. How might a school use this report? How might a school use this report? Intervention PlanningIntervention Planning Resource AllocationResource Allocation Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning School Improvement PlanningSchool Improvement Planning Cautions Cautions This report provides another indicator about likelihood of future performance.This report provides another indicator about likelihood of future performance.

School (Single Grade) Projection Summary Report

Wouldn’t it be great to know if your students made one year’s growth for the year of schooling they experienced last year? In Math and Reading (4-8 and 11)? In Science (4, 8 and 11)? In Writing (5, 8 and 11)? Value-Added

PVAAS Growth Methods TestingSubjects – GradesMethodology PSSA in consecutive years Math & Reading – 4-8 Growth Standard PSSA not in consecutive years Writing – 5, 8, 11 Science – 4, 8, 11 Math & Reading – 11 Predictive

Value-added Measure of Growth Math and Reading (Grades 4-8) Comparison to a State Growth Standard Comparison to a State Growth Standard The Growth Standard specifies the minimal acceptable academic gain from grade to grade for a cohort of students. The Growth Standard specifies the minimal acceptable academic gain from grade to grade for a cohort of students. The use of a Growth Standard creates the possibility that ALL schools can demonstrate appropriate growth. The use of a Growth Standard creates the possibility that ALL schools can demonstrate appropriate growth.

PVAAS Value-Added Growth Descriptors – Grade 4 – 8 Math and Reading The PA Growth Standard specifies the minimal acceptable academic gain from grade to grade for a cohort of students. The Growth Standard is met when the students in a school or district on average maintain their relative position when compared to the 2006 statewide distribution of student scores (2006 is the base year). Estimated mean NCE gain equal or greater than zero. There is evidence that the school has met or exceeded the Growth Standard. All schools can achieve this rating. Estimated mean NCE gain less than zero by one standard error or less. There is slight evidence that the school has not met the Growth Standard. Estimated mean NCE gain less than zero by between one and two standard errors. There is moderate evidence that the school has not met the Growth Standard. Estimated mean NCE gain more than two standard errors less than zero. There is significant evidence that the school has not met the Growth Standard.

PVAAS School Report Grades 4 through 8 - Math and Reading

What Value-added Gain Means! NCE Scale State Mean = 50 Cohort’s Achievement 6 th grade 60.7 Cohort’s Achievement 7 th grade 66.6 PVAAS Gain ≈ Change in position from 6 th to 7 th grade ≈ 66.6 – 60.7 ≈ 5.9 NCE points

PVAAS Growth Methods TestingSubjects – GradesMethodology PSSA in consecutive years Math & Reading – 4-8 Growth Standard PSSA not in consecutive years Writing – 5, 8, 11 Science – 4, 8, 11 Math & Reading – 11 Predictive

Value-added Measure of Cohort Growth Math and Reading (Grade 11) Science (Grades 4, 8, and 11) Writing (Grades 5, 8, and 11) Based on a predictive methodology… A predicted score is calculated for each student; A predicted score is calculated for each student; Mean of predicted scores is calculated for students in a cohort; Mean of predicted scores is calculated for students in a cohort; Mean of observed scores of students in the cohort; Mean of observed scores of students in the cohort; School Effect is the difference between the Observed and the Predicted Scores. School Effect is the difference between the Observed and the Predicted Scores.

PVAAS Predictive Analysis Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 PSSA PSSA PSSA (11th) 7th 8th Predicted Actual 1.We collect all of the individual student data that is available for a minimum of two years. 2.All of these data are used to develop individual student profiles. 3.PVAAS then calculates a Predicted Performance Value based on the student profile for each student. Reading Math ?? 1320??

PVAAS Ratings of School Effect Remember: School Effect  Mean of Student Scores – Mean of Predicted Scores So, if the students perform as expected, School Effect  0. The ratings are in terms of the expected value of SEs 0 +2 SEs Not Detectably Different AboveBelow Standard Error (SE) is a measure of variation in the prediction.

Writing, Science & Grade 11 Reading/Math Growth Descriptors Progress is defined by the district or school effect, which is a measure of the difference between observed performance and predicted performance. Progress is significantly above the progress of the average district in the state. Progress is not detectably different from the progress of the average district in the state. Progress is significantly below the progress of the average district in the state.

PVAAS School Report Grades 11- Math and Reading Grades 4, 8 & 11 – Science Grades 5, 8 & 11 – Writing

Summary of PVAAS Growth Methods TestingSubjects – GradesMethodology PSSA in consecutive years Math & Reading – 4-8 Growth Standard PSSA not in consecutive years Writing – 5, 8, 11 Science – 4, 8, 11 Math & Reading – 11 Predictive

Summary: One Year’s Growth Growth Standard Method Math and Reading – Grades 4 through 8 Cohort maintains its achievement position. Predictive Method Math & Reading – Grade 11 Writing – Grades 5, 8, 11 Science – Grades 4, 8, 11 Cohort’s actual performance is as expected.

PVAAS Performance Diagnostic Report The Key is the RED Whisker!

Growth Standard Methodology What the whiskers tell us… Growth Standard (One Year’s Growth) Met the Growth Standard; Made One Year’s Growth Yellow Below Growth Standard; Less than One Year’s Growth Rose Exceeded Growth Standard; More than One Year’s Growth Green

Predictive Methodology What the whiskers tell us… Observed – Predicted (One Year’s Growth) NDD – No Detectable Difference Between Observed Score and Predicted Score BELOW Expectations -- Observed Score Was Less Than Predicted Score ABOVE Expectations -- Observed Score Was Greater Than Predicted Score

Performance Diagnostic Report

Greater Detail – based on % of students

Click on Hot Keys for lists of students.

Student Lists from Performance Diagnostic Reports

Your District and School Data

PA’s Intent for PVAAS Another Tool for Continuous Improvement Another Tool for Continuous Improvement Measure of Growth to Add to Achievement/Status Measures Measure of Growth to Add to Achievement/Status Measures Not to Be Used in Isolation Not to Be Used in Isolation

Questions and Feedback

Questions: PVAAS Materials or Statewide Implementation PVAAS Report Web Site

333 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17126