Review of Rural Highway Traffic Counts Can the Trans-Texas Corridor be Justified? By Erik Slotboom Toll & Corridor Summit Meeting November 13, 2004

Also by Erik Slotboom FireRicWilliamson.comHoustonFreeways.com Founded by Erik Slotboom: TexasFreeway.com

Trans-Texas Corridor Overall Conclusions Only one corridor may justify a relief route: I-35, San Antonio to Hillsboro Existing Interstates are adequate in all other cases Some sections of existing Interstates will need a 3 rd lane in each direction by 2034 Trans-Texas corridor cannot be justified

How much traffic can existing Interstates handle? Approximate

Typical 4-lane Rural Interstate Interstate 35W South of Fort Worth

Typical 4 lane Interstate How much traffic can it carry? Vehicles/day RuralI-35 S of Waco I-45 S of Huntsville 56,000 45,000 UrbanI-45 S of Conroe US 59 Sugar Land (1999) I-820 Fort Worth 102, , ,000 A 4-lane freeway can serve > 100,000 vehicles/day with reduced service

Typical 6-lane Interstate I-35 North of New Braunfels

Typical 6 lane Interstate How much traffic can it carry? Vehicles/day RuralI-35 N of San Marcos 76,000 Urban I-10 West Houston Loop 1 Mopac Austin 220, ,000 A 6-lane freeway can serve > 200,000 vehicles/day with reduced service

Implied Tran-Texas Corridor Traffic 6-lane Trans-Texas 10-lane Trans-Texas Existing Interstate 50,000 Trans-Texas + 100, ,000 Total Traffic150,000250,000

What kind of traffic counts do we have in 2003? Is it anywhere approaching Trans-Texas capacity?

2003 traffic data Source: TxDOT

Existing traffic volumes are easily handled by existing 4-lane Interstates Will traffic grow to Trans-Texas proportions?

Interstate 10 Houston to San Antonio 2003 Traffic Data

Interstate 45 Houston to Dallas 2003 traffic data

Interstate 35 San Antonio to Laredo “NAFTA Corridor” There has not been a NAFTA traffic boom Traffic counts stagnant since traffic data

NAFTA Influence Strong growth in 1990s Stagnant since 1999 Traffic Count still very low

Interstate 69 Corridor Can it justify a Trans-Texas corridor? NO. A conventional 4-lane interstate will serve traffic needs 6-lane sections needed approaching Houston

2003 traffic data

Interstate 35 San Antonio to Hillsboro The only corridor that could possibly justify something resembling a Trans- Texas corridor Original TxDOT plan: widen existing facility to 6 (rural) and 8 (urban) lanes

2003 traffic data 4-lane sections south of Hillsboro need added lane in each direction immediately Expansion on hold pending Trans-Texas plan I Status

Financial Case Study What if we build a Trans Texas Corridor from Georgetown to Hillsboro? This is the only corridor section that has a remote chance of being viable

How Much Would It Cost? Construction$1.38 billion$28.2 million/mile Right-of-Way$300 million (est.) $6 million/mile Compare to SH 130, Austin to Georgetown: 6 lanes, 102 miles Assume a minimal Trans-Texas corridor, 4 highway lanes only but on a wide corridor Cost per mile110 miles Construction$20 million$2.2 billion Right-of-way$4 million$440 million 2.64 billion Other costs.11 billion Total2.75 billion

How Much Traffic Will Use It? Compare to Hardy Toll Road / I-45 Corridor in Houston to determine I-35 / Trans-Texas split Interstate 45 north in Houston is one of the most heavily loaded freeways in the United States (per lane-mile)

Conclusion Toll road traffic has been consistent at 15% of corridor traffic in spite of severe congestion on I-45 Motorists will endure severe congestion to avoid tolls

Analysis Assumption Toll percent of corridor traffic stays low until I-35 is severely congested I-35 Traffic Vehicles per day Toll Traffic as % of Total <75,00010% 75, ,00040% of traffic over 75,000 >100,00080% of traffic over 100,000

Other Assumptions No capacity improvements to I-35; 4-lane sections remain 4 lanes forever $10 toll Georgetown-Hillsboro ($.09/mile) increasing at 3% per year 10% corridor traffic increase after 20 years due to induced demand Assume 4.5% interest, 40 year term on $2.75 billion in bonds. Annual Payment: $149 million

Financial Shortfall About 25 years of subsidy required Where will the money come from?

Toll Interstate 35!

Conclusion Tolling existing rural interstates is the only way to make any Trans-Texas corridor viable –Bribe rural counties with a cut of the money to defuse rural opposition

Other Financial Risks High gasoline cost – lower traffic counts Faulty assumptions (eg NAFTA) Lower than forecast population growth Predominantly Hispanic population –Hispanic regions most anti-toll –Lower income groups can’t afford tolls

Slower Population Growth? Dallas Morning News, October 4, 2004

NAFTA: what happened? 1990s assumption: future traffic boom 2000s reality: Everything is being made in China Result: Flat traffic volume to Mexico

Alameda Corridor in Los Angeles Paying the Price for Faulty Assumptions $2.5 billion spent on rail line Now it is grossly underutilized “In the nearly two decades it took to plan and build the corridor, the shipping business changed so dramatically that the economic assumptions underpinning the project became obsolete.” L.A. Times, August 22, 2004

A Better Way to Meet Our Needs Add extra lanes to existing interstates as needed Rebuilding a 4-lane interstate to a 6-lane interstate costs about $10 million per mile, half the cost of a Trans-Texas corridor

Actual needs in the next 30 years Can be done WITHOUT TOLLS

The Engineer Says Traffic counts can’t even remotely justify Trans-Texas Corridor The Financial Analyst Says Tolling will only pay a tiny fraction of the cost for decades The Concerned Texan Worries about steep tolls on existing Interstates to pay for it

Trans-Texas Corridor