Fisheries and Climate Change Dr. John T. Everett National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration United States Department of Commerce

Existing Stresses Overfishing Pollution Non-native species Habitat loss Water resource management Natural climate variability UV-B radiation

Impacts Expected changes in temperature, precip., sea level, and ice cover are important CC impacts interact with existing stresses Northern freshwater fisheries and aquaculture should benefit, but with some losses also Marine production should be about the same; but fishery areas and species mix will shift Impacts (+/-) vary by species and habitats: oceanic species less than coastal or riverine

Impacts - 2 Changes in abundance are more likely near ecosystem boundaries Some species are at risk from flooding, heat, and changes in precip. Economic impacts should be small nationally. Locally they could be large If society develops the ability to deal with the current issues, CC impacts will be less

Apparent Oceanwide Synchrony in Pacific Basin Sardines Historical catches in the sardine fisheries of Japan, California and Peru-Chile have exhibited parallel patterns, possibly in response to global-scale changes in climate (modified from Kawasaki, 1992). Year California Sardine Catch (Thousand Metric Tons) Japan and Peru/Chile Sardine Catch (Million Metric Tons) Sources: U.S. GLOBEC, FAO 1995, NMFS/Our Living Oceans 1996 Peru/Chile California Japan

Normalized Catch Time Series Comparison of pink salmon catch in the Gulf of Alaska with coho salmon catch in the Washington, Oregon, California region (Francis and Sibley, 1991). Year Standard Index

Adaptation Options Implement fisheries mgt that recognizes shifting distributions and abundances Research on mgt systems and ecosystems Expand aquaculture to increase and stabilize seafood supplies and employment, and carefully, to augment wild stocks Integrate fisheries and river and shore mgt Monitor health problems (red tides, cholera)