South Korea’s Conservative Turn & U.S.-Korea Relations Chaibong Hahm Senior Political Scientist RAND Corporation Chaibong Hahm Senior Political Scientist RAND Corporation

2007 Election  Lee Myung-bak: Conservative GNP  48.7%  million votes  Chung Dong-young: UNDP  26.2%  6.17 million votes  Lee Hoe-chang: Ultra-Conservative Independent  15.6%  Lee Myung-bak: Conservative GNP  48.7%  million votes  Chung Dong-young: UNDP  26.2%  6.17 million votes  Lee Hoe-chang: Ultra-Conservative Independent  15.6%

Two Koreans  Roh Mu-hyun (DOB: Aug. 6, 1946)  Poverty  High school, Bar Exam: Judge, lawyer  Human Rights lawyer  Opposition Politician  Minister  Progressive  Roh Mu-hyun (DOB: Aug. 6, 1946)  Poverty  High school, Bar Exam: Judge, lawyer  Human Rights lawyer  Opposition Politician  Minister  Progressive  Lee Myung-bak (DOB: Dec. 9, 1941)  Poverty  College, student activist  CEO, Hyundai Construction  Ruling Party Politician  Mayor of Seoul  Conservative

IDEOLOGY  Left/Progressive  Democracy  Anti-authoritarianism  Nationalism  Reconciliation w/ NK  Labor (Minjung)  Left/Progressive  Democracy  Anti-authoritarianism  Nationalism  Reconciliation w/ NK  Labor (Minjung)  Right/Conservative  Development  Mobilization  Anti-Communism  S.Korean State  Capital (e.g.Chaebol)

‘87 System  1987: Democratization  Authoritarianism de-legitimized  1997: Financial Crisis  Developmental State de-legitimized  Left Dictated the Terms of Political Discourse:  “Democracy v. Dictatorship”  “National Reunification v. National Division”  “Workers (Minjung) v. Capitalists (Chaebol)”  1987: Democratization  Authoritarianism de-legitimized  1997: Financial Crisis  Developmental State de-legitimized  Left Dictated the Terms of Political Discourse:  “Democracy v. Dictatorship”  “National Reunification v. National Division”  “Workers (Minjung) v. Capitalists (Chaebol)”

Contradictions  1997 Financial Crisis:  Limits of Developmental State  Inevitability of Globalization  Progressive Govts’ Pro-Market Reforms  Kim Dae-jung: FDI, Consumer Credit, Dot.com  Cooperated w/ the IMF to open Korean Market  Roh Mu-hyun: Free Trade Agreement w/ U.S.  Rhetoric:  Nationalism, Anti-Americanism  Anti-capital (anti-chaebol)  1997 Financial Crisis:  Limits of Developmental State  Inevitability of Globalization  Progressive Govts’ Pro-Market Reforms  Kim Dae-jung: FDI, Consumer Credit, Dot.com  Cooperated w/ the IMF to open Korean Market  Roh Mu-hyun: Free Trade Agreement w/ U.S.  Rhetoric:  Nationalism, Anti-Americanism  Anti-capital (anti-chaebol)

The Economy  Destruction of powerful labor unions as companies go bankrupt and massive layoffs take place  Those chaebols that survive become globally competitive w/ less government interference  Free-market forces increasingly take over  income disparity and job insecurity increases under leftist/progressive governments  Destruction of powerful labor unions as companies go bankrupt and massive layoffs take place  Those chaebols that survive become globally competitive w/ less government interference  Free-market forces increasingly take over  income disparity and job insecurity increases under leftist/progressive governments

Housing & Education  Restricting new housing while trying to keep the real estate prices down in Seoul through “anti-speculation” measures  Keeping Education “fair” and “equal” by severely restricting Universities’ student selection method & criteria  => Explosion of social discontent  Restricting new housing while trying to keep the real estate prices down in Seoul through “anti-speculation” measures  Keeping Education “fair” and “equal” by severely restricting Universities’ student selection method & criteria  => Explosion of social discontent

Politics  Undercutting workers, political base of progressive governments  Undercutting the middle class while calling for “Citizens’ Participatory Democracy”  Undercutting workers, political base of progressive governments  Undercutting the middle class while calling for “Citizens’ Participatory Democracy”

Politics of History  Preoccupation w/ History  Pro-Authoritarian Government Collaborators  Atrocities of U.S. & S. Korean Forces during the Korean War  Pro-Japanese Collaborators  Japanese History Book Revisions  Chinese Revision of Northeast Asian History  Moralistic Past-Orientation in the Age of Globalization & Information Revolution  Preoccupation w/ History  Pro-Authoritarian Government Collaborators  Atrocities of U.S. & S. Korean Forces during the Korean War  Pro-Japanese Collaborators  Japanese History Book Revisions  Chinese Revision of Northeast Asian History  Moralistic Past-Orientation in the Age of Globalization & Information Revolution

Korean Nationalism & the U.S.  Selling out Korea to Japan: 1905 Taft-Katsura Agreement  Imposing Rightist/Pro-U.S. Government on South Korea: U.S. Military Rule ( )  U.S. military atrocities against Korean civilians during the Korean War  Supporting Military Dictators: exploitation of workers, Kwangju Massacre  Killing of Two School Girls by U.S. army on exercise  2002 Election of Roh Mu-hyun: never been to the U.S.  Selling out Korea to Japan: 1905 Taft-Katsura Agreement  Imposing Rightist/Pro-U.S. Government on South Korea: U.S. Military Rule ( )  U.S. military atrocities against Korean civilians during the Korean War  Supporting Military Dictators: exploitation of workers, Kwangju Massacre  Killing of Two School Girls by U.S. army on exercise  2002 Election of Roh Mu-hyun: never been to the U.S.

Fraying of the Alliance  S. Korea: a more independent foreign policy:  “balancer between U.S. & China”  De-linking inter-Korean relations from U.S.-ROK alliance  S. Korea: a more independent foreign policy:  “balancer between U.S. & China”  De-linking inter-Korean relations from U.S.-ROK alliance

Loosening Military Ties:  Progressives wanting to reduce U.S. military presence in S. Korea  U.S. Military’s global restructuring: emphasizing burden sharing, increasing the contribution of host country  Roh & Rumsfeld perversely re-enforced each other’s policy: agreement to transfer wartime operational control  Progressives wanting to reduce U.S. military presence in S. Korea  U.S. Military’s global restructuring: emphasizing burden sharing, increasing the contribution of host country  Roh & Rumsfeld perversely re-enforced each other’s policy: agreement to transfer wartime operational control

Contradictory Policies  Transfer of Wartime Operations Command & Control  Sending troops to Iraq  Free Trade Agreement  Transfer of Wartime Operations Command & Control  Sending troops to Iraq  Free Trade Agreement

Rise of the New-Right  Shifting the Terms of Political Discourse  What comes after Industrialization & Democratization?  Left: Left: reckoning w/ the past  New Right: “Advanced Industrialization Nation”: future orientation  Shifting the Terms of Political Discourse  What comes after Industrialization & Democratization?  Left: Left: reckoning w/ the past  New Right: “Advanced Industrialization Nation”: future orientation

The New Discourse  Liberty v. Equality  Growth v. Welfare  Market v. State  Globalization v. Nationalism  Liberty v. Equality  Growth v. Welfare  Market v. State  Globalization v. Nationalism

Pragmatism in Foreign Policy  Reaffirm alliance w/ U.S.  Improve ties w/ Japan  Sunshine towards N.K. but demand reciprocity (de-nuclearization)  Reaffirm alliance w/ U.S.  Improve ties w/ Japan  Sunshine towards N.K. but demand reciprocity (de-nuclearization)

Pragmatic Economic Policies  Growth through de-regulation & market liberalization: “747”  7% per annum growth rate  $40,000 per capita income  7th largest economy in the world  Growth through de-regulation & market liberalization: “747”  7% per annum growth rate  $40,000 per capita income  7th largest economy in the world

Challenges  Between U.S. & China  KORUS FTA  Down-grading of Military Alliance  Global Economic Downturn  Between U.S. & China  KORUS FTA  Down-grading of Military Alliance  Global Economic Downturn